14 Year Old Forex Trader's Lessons

US September retails sales (m/m) better than expected at 1.1% vs 0.5% expected and vs 0.0% for August

Now I expect the high to be breached. Next stop 1.3875/80

wait isnt it meant to be better than before? aka it would be good for the dollar?!

or is it that classic lets sell it higher ure trying to say?

No it doesn't work that way.
Anything good from the US economy is good for the global economy.
As the stock market gets bullish, USD's flow from their safe haven status to all asset classes. Therefore Euro positive.

However, like I pointed out in one of my previous posts here, the bulls do have some challenges to overcome.
H4 bearish divergence and a huge supply zone above 1.38

oh hell no...

positiive retail...

crud.

Look here --> http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts...URRENCIES&p=m5

I am back in, first time I shorted this was 3804 now 3828

lets see. Are you still in?

mla

Just to qualify what I said earlier, if the global economy is chugging along nicely and the USD is not currently a safe haven meaning that the markets are well bought and everything is growing nicely for a couple of years, good job creation, etc etc., then this kind of news would be USD positive and the eur/usd will likely slide till some good news comes from the euro zone and the move is reversed. Kind of like a ping pong game... but these are no such times

There is a huge battle going on, I cannot see the charts anymore, my screen is covered of blood.

mla

I hope your not cutting yourself.

looking at the H1 chart, I see the formation of an inverse head and shoulders, although I also still see a bearish divergence that has not triggered yet and a huge supply zone above.

So if it makes it through the supply zone and the bearish divergence is still in play at the next resistance level, I expect a pullback down to possibly around 1.3750

Of course anything could change in the meantime

Let's see if this up move plays out first.

.

I am stopped out

mla

No, I did not. But got stopped out. Well, that was a lesson tough.

mla

The NZD/USD daily chart long setup i posted last night has been triggered.

I am back in long this time

mla

I posted this in the EurAnalysis thread, but thought I would share here too.

Look at the action and the chart, I will cut and paste my analysis shortly about how Operation Twist may be behind this as in truth nearly $1 Trillion USD are slated to hit the markets over the next few months when combined with all programs.

But just looking at the chart, 1.392 could be next test as it was the highest rejected pin in the recent move, and that was before the big move down Sept. 14-15. I have finally abandoned my bias, thank you all, have been long this entire move.

covered half @+30 and SL to BE.

mla

I posted this earlier in EurAnalysis, but this definitely opened my eyes to a long position.

Between this and operation twist, I think we have our answer. Because it wasn't well understood, twist was largely ignored by bears, but look at the timing and effect.

Announced the 21st of September, sell off. Implemented with first purchase Oct. 3, last day of the sell off. Plans were to purchase US debts throughout October, most recently yesterday. Excerpt from Bloomberg:

Purchases will begin Oct. 3 with the acquisition of $2.25 billion to $2.75 billion of Treasuries maturing between February 2036 and August 2041, according to a statement today from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the branch of the Federal Reserve System that implements monetary policy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...wist-plan.html

Unfortunately for bears, the October traunch only has $44 billion of $440 billion allocated. Some Fed governors have said this will have little to no impact, but others have likened the stimulative effect to a 50 basis point cut in interest rates. Both dollar negative. Combine that with another $400 billion as mentioned in loans to the world in dollars, and the effect is the same as printing money, dollars are out buying other currencies, driving them up and the supply of the dollar up so USD down.

The less understood and publicized part of operation twist, is that the Fed is "reinvesting" (invest = spend in Washington) all proceeds from the mortgages they hold. That calculates to about $2 billion per month, the same size as the original twist purchases on the 3rd.

How I missed this.....clearly these huge Fed operations are USD negative. Just look at the charts.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...ading_dark.gif

it seems like sometimes it is