Euro rises to three-week high vs dollar | Forex Factory

Euro rises to three-week high vs dollar | Forex Factory

Euro rises to three-week high vs dollar

From reuters.com

The euro rose to a three-week high versus the dollar on Wednesday as speculators bought the currency to try and trigger a reported option barrier at $1.3700, forcing stop-loss orders above that level to be triggered. The euro rose to $1.3738, its highest since Setpember 21, to trade with gains of around 0.6 percent for the day. Traders said offers ahead of the $1.3700 barrier were taken out, with stops then hit through $1.3710.

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Oct 12, 2011 3:33am

Quoting Lion777

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wow...guys... what's going on EUR rising ? is it correction or market bullish already ? any ideas ?

Ignored

I've got more than an idea for you, I've got simple chart analysis. The Euro is in Bullish mode and has been since bouncing off the 61.8% level fibonacci on the 6th Oct. That's not to say that this big move to the upside that we are seeing today was predictable, but when your charts are telling you only to trade long, then you have to be ready for any move in that direction, big or small. However, with resistance level three having been hit, I'm out for today. The long side looks overcooked, but it's far too early to begin selling, but then it depends which time frame you trade off. I trade off an hourly chart, and that, for me, shows Bullish momentum at present.

Oct 12, 2011 4:58am

Seems like there's a stack load of people here maintaining a bearish stance on the euro, which seems odd seeing that it's rallied just short of 600 pips in 4 days of trading! Perhaps you think it should be bearish going on the fundamentals, but that kind of assumption will cause a thousand cuts. Unless you've got an account the size of Kilimanjaro, and are willing to sit through a so called ' correction ' of this magnitude, it is best, especially in this kind of schizophrenic environment, to trade what you see day to day, and so far this week, I am not mistaken when I say that the euro has been pointing up, and there was no reason to assume that today should have been any different.

Oct 12, 2011 4:39am

The Further up the 1 day technicals go the greater the fall will be. The market is driven by possibilities nothing factual as of yet. Maybe if we see a yes vote from slovakia we may se a little bit more buying and i do see a break above 1.38 today the true test will be a break and hold above the 150sma at around 1.39. We see a break and hold above that we are right back to where we started in a ranging market between 1.39 and 1.46. What everyone is forgetting is that what really drove the euro down against the dollar was operation twist. Word of a Greek default had only a small a 300 pip influence. I do believe this is a correction and my sentiment remains Bearish. But that can change!

Oct 12, 2011 9:06am

Quoting jillsaab

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EUR is gradual short and will stay so. This is huge bull trap going on.

Ignored

And at what point do you finally admit that you are wrong, another 1000 pt rise or so? The market has risen close to 500 pts from the place where "traders" first STARTED yelling for shorts shorts short it! I dont know about you but being 500 pips in the hole and praying to god that the market will resume its "longterm downtrend" doesn't seem like a good position to be in.

Oct 12, 2011 4:48am

Quoting Guest

Disliked

it cant keep going up forever. bear in mind eur is at a 38% premium to the dollar, is there any reason for this? its PPP adjusted is closer to parity.

Ignored

LOL. Since when is any of that important? It was near 1.5000 couple months ago. I guess many people are caught on the wrong side and are seeking answers. To which there are really none.

Oct 12, 2011 4:49am

I think that if the Slovak vote yes, we might get a big spike up, but like NFP was beneficial to Euro, this vote on a longer term will be beneficial to USD. The reason why, we have a recently slow grow in US is because of Europe

Oct 12, 2011 7:16am

I disagree that forex is short-term game. It is clearly long-term game during which we build our gradual positions based on long term trend. Understand that there may be some "kick" with one hour chart trading but that is for the one on 90% side. EUR is gradual short and will stay so. This is huge bull trap going on.

Oct 12, 2011 9:14am

It all depends on the risk and therefore the distance you are from margin call. In my scenario the risk is so less and calculated that even if the market moves 5000 pips against me, I will not get margin call. Additionally I do not make my living on forex so I am least concerened about where and how much it moves untill it is in sync with long term trend. Plus the minimum time frame for me to start is daily chart with weekly and monthly in strong consideration. Not really looking for quicky in this market. It is against my initial learning concept. But then, its just my opinion and way of trading. Quicky though sometimes it feels nice

Oct 12, 2011 1:39am

Quoting bidong

Disliked

Are we still short EURUSD?

Ignored

Yep, you still short and that's why you are capital suppliers.

The difference between big and small speculators is that small ones stick to their sentiment while the big ones create the sentiment.

Good luck.

Oct 12, 2011 2:07am

Nobody is thinking - Yes, you are right!!

Quoting krisware

Disliked

Nobody is thinking about ... what does EFSF really mean ... do You really think that Governments have the money if it is really needed? ... this payment would bring down Italy, Farance and all other EURO17 countries ... even if markets tell that we agreed 2 tril EFSF ... this would mean 20-30% of EURO17 GDP ... I do not see 20% growth in Germany or anywhere else ... now we are at 0,5 tril ... where is our 5% growth in EURO17?... only in Estonia ... it won't last ...
It does not matter how big is the sum, but what would it mean if the payday comes...

Ignored

Oct 12, 2011 10:49am

wow... where is going EUR ? i'm on short but any one has idea is it return or will go more up ?

Oct 12, 2011 12:04pm

Quoting Lion777

Disliked

wow... where is going EUR ? i'm on short but any one has idea is it return or will go more up ?

Ignored

For me it's stay away from the euro atm situation. Buyers have their positions, for sellers it's just too early, there is too much strength in the market currently demonstrated - solid volatility breakout. Better wait until small ATR daily candle is formed, preferably inside bar, and enter its breach with flow of orders and sound stoploss.

However if you like gambling when you have 90% chance to lose... enter now, at consolidation or probably continuation, or maybe small retracement phaze of the market (nobody knows what phaze it's now). It's just not clear as of yet, what market will do tomorow, wait for setup to be formed first. Well known to you setup. Not just any. And not just not to miss the show. Good luck! )

P.S. Remember to check the market when yesterday was small D1 candle. You'll find a lot of momentum easily taking your order into the green zone, on breach of such candles, in majority of the cases, a day or two after.

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Oct 12, 2011 4:25am

i thought a weak euro would be a blessing for euro zone economy... i wonder what's up with those comments made by sarkozy and merkel, what exactly are they trying to defend...?

Oct 12, 2011 10:11am

Keep sqeeeezin.... Lol @ what must be a shitload of margin calls today

Oct 12, 2011 1:48am

Quoting rigpa

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I really hope that France and Germany will default if they play this role.

Ignored

Just bcoz you are short, awwww come on man you want to collapse 2 countries just because you are short on euro WTF. lOL

Oct 12, 2011 1:52am

Quoting hiteshdayma

Disliked

EURUSD break the daily high, so now the next level is 1.3937, sort EURUSD from that level can give more benefits. I don't know what's the politician saying but the only think is that technically its bullish trend in EURUSD right now.

Ignored

1.4009.

Oct 12, 2011 11:06am

do you wanna know why EUR is rising??

check this out:
http://www.elblogsalmon.com/economia/la-burbuja-de-los-600-billones-de-dolares-que-esta-a-punto-de-explotar

Oct 12, 2011 10:04am

Quoting Guest

Disliked

With the amount of leverage in FX, it cannot and surely must not be a long term game

Ignored

Wow, that is the dumbest statement I have read in a while.

Oct 12, 2011 5:04pm

Quoting AlexanderSV

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wait for setup to be formed first. Well known to you setup. Not just any. And not just not to miss the show.

Ignored

Good advice.

Oct 12, 2011 3:40am

Quoting Guest

Disliked

Is it advisable to buy, because all indicators are not responding to normal market flow? Advice please!!!

Ignored

If you do not know what position to open then might as well just hold and see. Always remember stay out of the market is a strategy as well.

Oct 12, 2011 2:04am

Nobody is thinking about ... what does EFSF really mean ... do You really think that Governments have the money if it is really needed? ... this payment would bring down Italy, Farance and all other EURO17 countries ... even if markets tell that we agreed 2 tril EFSF ... this would mean 20-30% of EURO17 GDP ... I do not see 20% growth in Germany or anywhere else ... now we are at 0,5 tril ... where is our 5% growth in EURO17?... only in Estonia ... it won't last ...
It does not matter how big is the sum, but what would it mean if the payday comes ... and it will come sooner or later ... trend for EUR/USD is down and down it will go ... EURO will fall in 3-5 years, maybe sooner

Oct 12, 2011 11:40pm

EUR/USD definitely goin to 1.4 first b4 considering a move down....thts almost 90% given..am not in any position nw but ths markets hav nothn to do with fundamentals unless we talk ov smthn as lethal as a default thn and only thn can u be sure bout fundamentals...holdin a short position after 500pip isnt the best idea iv u ax me...

Oct 12, 2011 3:53am

"Listen to your heart"? Oh, my heart is just beating harder and harder,not telling me the right thing I hoped .....I am bearish..

Oct 12, 2011 2:07am

Phew; 100 pips an hour. good luck to you trailing stoppers.

Oct 12, 2011 10:59am

I think that most likely it will touch 1.4000 and will consolidate for short positions after that. This might happen early??

Oct 12, 2011 10:47am

Just goes to show again that currency exchange has nothing to do with the fundamentals but more on who has the power to control the market. Once you take this into mind, the more you profit.

Oct 12, 2011 1:50am

EURUSD break the daily high, so now the next level is 1.3937, sort EURUSD from that level can give more benefits. I don't know what's the politician saying but the only think is that technically its bullish trend in EURUSD right now.

Oct 12, 2011 3:04am

You guys being American or what don't understand European politics. The Slovak opposition took this opportunity to overthrow this government in a vote of confidence, but in a renewed vote (coming up already perhaps this week) they will vote for the EFSF. This rally is already pricing in that yes vote. For the short term, throw out your shorts while you can.What will happen in 3 months time is everybody's guess.
FX is a short term game, for the retired there is the stock market.

Oct 12, 2011 10:28pm

Looking forward to long when the whole noise settles down and the optimism gives way for reality. Word word word let the Markozy perform first. Where are all the monies promised coming from? Tax payers I guess. For How long. Euro welcome to the days of serious Turbulence.

Oct 12, 2011 1:33am

Why Euro rises when Slovak reject bailout plan? There is something wrong and fraud out there.....

Oct 12, 2011 1:43am

I really hope that France and Germany will default if they play this role.

Quoting hamad9

Disliked

Germany and France playing there role!

Ignored

Oct 12, 2011 1:50am

The people in Europe will hit them as soon as possible. Eurocrats play insincere game. Busel will die in terrible pains...

Oct 12, 2011 2:04am

Stupidity is buying Euro. It will have significant impact in the future. Banks are expecting money from EFSF.

Oct 12, 2011 2:58am

wow...guys... what's going on EUR rising ? is it correction or market bullish already ? any ideas ?

Oct 12, 2011 3:08am

Probably most big fish aren't bearish anymore.

Oct 12, 2011 3:11am

it is not just correction ? are you sure no more bearish now ? cause i'm short on it.... oooops

Oct 12, 2011 3:16am

There is nothing sure in this world and especially FX market. This is my opinion based on some knowledge. But trader's first rule should be "listen to your (own) heart"

Oct 12, 2011 3:28am

my heart is telling to short it... cause it's just correction and nothing more,,,

Oct 12, 2011 4:17am

And i'm bearish , and market also bearish too... it' just correction guys...

Oct 12, 2011 4:19am

i mean main trend is bearish... daily and weekly

Oct 12, 2011 4:59am

1.37 was fierce resistance, and it when it was broken, the euro jumped much higher. It now turns into support.
On the upside, 1.38 is minor resistance before 1.3838.

Oct 12, 2011 6:18am

What is also amazing that the huge number of FX analyst pros are not billionaires and still give a damn about their job

Oct 12, 2011 1:35am

Germany and France playing there role!

Oct 12, 2011 6:16am

Right now, the dollar rose against the major currency GBP and JPY, but the euro rose against the dollar. This divergence will surprise with reversal trend.

Oct 13, 2011 11:09am

Euro is rising with hope and dream, just it.

Im with my feet on the ground.

Oct 12, 2011 1:34am

Short since 1.45. Will continue to be so.

Oct 12, 2011 9:47pm

My ATM doesn't work today because The Bullish EUR

Oct 13, 2011 1:18am

Now I'm heading to my ATM to get some lunch

Oct 12, 2011 1:33am

Are we still short EURUSD?

Oct 12, 2011 2:06am

EUR is just a short time rising, nothing changes its fundamental.

Trader#78BD

Oct 12, 2011 1:44am

Hey, the EFSF has hit a road block, there is talk of a plan to save the Euro but no details, the same market 2 weeks ago rejected 'empty words' from Eurocrats and punished the EURO are now wholeheartedly embracing the same bullshit from Rehn and co. If this market is not rigged, I don't know what is! Impossible to trade. I guess I won't be the only one leaving Forex trading soon because you just cannot win.

Oct 12, 2011 1:50am

forex is a casino and traders are crook dealers, I still wonder why it is still legal?

Oct 12, 2011 1:51am

so finally equity rise, the euro will rise

Oct 12, 2011 1:51am

Quoting Guest

Disliked

The winners have no sentiment.

Ignored

100% true.

Trader#11B4

Oct 12, 2011 2:12am

Regarding Slovaks, the reason why EFSF didn't pass there is that the vote was connected with the government confidence vote. Thus the left wing opposition did not support the vote. It will have been repeated by the end of this week, and it will pass, that's already for sure. It is the reason why Euro has been strengthening for quite some hours already.

Trader#1E64

Oct 12, 2011 2:26am

The problem is that your capital will be erased sooner if you stick to your shorts... :-)) FX is a short term game, long term is for stocks!!

Quoting krisware

Disliked

Nobody is thinking about ... what does EFSF really mean ... do You really think that Governments have the money if it is really needed? ... this payment would bring down Italy, Farance and all other EURO17 countries ... even if markets tell that we agreed 2 tril EFSF ... this would mean 20-30% of EURO17 GDP ... I do not see 20% growth in Germany or anywhere else ... now we are at 0,5 tril ... where is our 5% growth in EURO17?... only in Estonia ... it won't last ...
It does not matter how big is the sum, but what would it mean if the payday comes...

Ignored

Trader#11B4

Oct 12, 2011 2:30am

... and yes, the Slovak government lost confidence with the vote. Negotiations are already on the go, the main leftish party strongly supports EFSF proposal. No doubt the road block is already being dimantled. I only wonder how long it'll take to approve my guest message message by the moderator so that it appears here.

Oct 12, 2011 2:42am

short eur/usd and short gbp/usd, when action is put behind the words of france and germany then I will truly be a BULL, till then short for now.

Trader#1E64

Oct 12, 2011 2:44am

You guys being American or what don't understand European politics. The Slovak opposition took this opportunity to overthrow this government in a vote of confidence, but in a renewed vote (coming up already perhaps this week) they will vote for the EFSF. Guess what will happen to the Euro then... For the short term, throw out your shorts while you can.What will happen in 3 months time is everybody's guess.

Quoting Guest

Disliked

... and yes, the Slovak government lost confidence with the vote. Negotiations are already on the go, the main leftish party strongly supports EFSF proposal. No doubt the road block is already being dimantled. I only wonder how long it'll take to approve my guest message message by the moderator so that it appears here.

Ignored

Oct 12, 2011 3:09am

Don't listen to the news, just follow the direction.... if euro wants to go up... just buy? No point reasoning....

Trader#06CD

Oct 12, 2011 3:26am

nice thoughts around here. There's an usual commetn about forex markets - they are so big that it's impossible to be manipulated. This kind of action still make anyone think like that ? Not me, it's pretty obvious....

Trader#1E64

Oct 12, 2011 5:05am

What is though amazing is the huge number of FX analyst pros just not seeing this change of (short term) trend coming, except for a few... If you go to the FX pages connected to this homepage, you'll almost entirely find pros telling you to remain short. For how long, is the question? Until your house is taken?

Trader#5FE0

Oct 12, 2011 6:26am

Quoting Scrat

Disliked

i thought a weak euro would be a blessing for euro zone economy... i wonder what's up with those comments made by sarkozy and merkel, what exactly are they trying to defend...?

Ignored

I've heard them preaching "strong euro" many times.. the average joe off the street thinks strong euro = strong Europe so as politicians maybe they defend this kind of public image.. the problem for economy is, the euro is treated as some kind of stock (risk asset) by investors/banksters.. it's supposed to go UP and UP.. and indeed it IS a stock.. held by China.

Trader#1E64

Oct 12, 2011 8:24am

And what is most amazing is that they are being payed for them being a failure!

Quoting cichy

Disliked

What is also amazing that the huge number of FX analyst pros are not billionaires and still give a damn about their job

Ignored

Trader#1E64

Oct 12, 2011 8:34am

With the amount of leverage in FX, it cannot and surely must not be a long term game, especially in these volatile market conditions, as, by the time you're proven correct in say 3 months - or just 3 weeks - time re. for eg. that the Euro is bearish, you are broke by then many times over and they take your house in a margin call, if and when trying to sit out a short position. Today, when applications at trading houses compete for milliseconds in reaction time over optical cables, maintaining that you can sit out a contra trend of 3-5 % per day for weeks is a certain recipe for going bust in no time.

Quoting jillsaab

Disliked

I disagree that forex is short-term game. It is clearly long-term game during which we build our gradual positions based on long term trend. Understand that there may be some "kick" with one hour chart trading but that is for the one on 90% side. EUR is gradual short and will stay so. This is huge bull trap going on.

Ignored

Trader#5FE0

Oct 12, 2011 9:06am

Quoting jillsaab

Disliked

It is clearly long-term game during which we build our gradual positions based on long term trend

Ignored

Agree 100%

Quoting jillsaab

Disliked

EUR is gradual short and will stay so. This is huge bull trap going on.

Ignored

Disagree. EUR is long since Y2K, currently in a BULL flag (bullish continuation pattern) since 2008 highs. Compared to 0.82xx lows anno 2000/2001, the difference between 1.4x and 1.3x (even 1.2x) is nothing, just a fluctuation.

Trader#5FE0

Oct 12, 2011 11:39am

Quoting [Sniper

Disliked

;5035279]Just goes to show again that currency exchange has nothing to do with the fundamentals but more on who has the power to control the market. Once you take this into mind, the more you profit.

Ignored

Exactly. And btw: what has changed (worsened or improved) fundamentally between end of August (1.45xx) and end of September (1.31xx)? Absolutely NOTHING. I really don't see anything bearish; just look a year back at November 2010: they pushed the price from 1.42 down to 1.28 just to attack the 1.50 mark few months later.. the eur/usd pair is bullish by nature thx to weak usd policy and eu politicians preaching STRONG euro (killing exporters and tourism). Even in strong downtrend (=corrective) periods, it spends 3/4 of all time creeping to the upside. euro bulls are indestructible and the currency will never fail as longs as the Germans support it.

Trader#5FE0

Oct 12, 2011 10:31pm

Old habits die hard. The market still treats this pair as a "buy and hold" asset with >>1.6 objective, much like some equity index. If they keep propping the EUR up, the world will believe everything is fine. Fair value of the euro (1.2-1.3) is perceived as "unhealthy" and smells with crisis, because it is not in line with speculative expectations. Europe suffers and will suffer from that.

Trader#1E64

Oct 12, 2011 1:36am

Correction might carry on: http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-temporary-change-in-trend/

Trader#1E64

Oct 12, 2011 1:43am

The winners have no sentiment.

The difference between big and small speculators is that small ones stick to their sentiment and the big ones create the sentiment.

Good luck.[/quote]

Trader#1324

Oct 12, 2011 1:46am

hmm i think it is a bit overvalued. is this a bull market or something?

Trader#9E2E

Oct 12, 2011 1:50am

Slovacia has no authority since they have no money. Euro will keep on rising because its more secure than the dollar. Simple but true

Trader#3093

Oct 12, 2011 2:15am

this is only for correction, eu will go down to 1.3400...

Trader#1E64

Oct 12, 2011 2:45am

Actually, this rally is already pricing in the Slovak "yes" vote.

Trader#D008

Oct 12, 2011 3:12am

Is it advisable to buy, because all indicators are not responding to normal market flow? Advice please!!!

Trader#1324

Oct 12, 2011 4:15am

it cant keep going up forever. bear in mind eur is at a 38% premium to the dollar, is there any reason for this? its PPP adjusted is closer to parity.

Trader#448B

Oct 12, 2011 4:23am

We all are men of reason,all traders are men of reason, so problem is not euro rising, we all want it by heart. But reason asks the question

Trader#5EE0

Oct 12, 2011 4:04pm

i think the fundamental not effectively cause the currency trend, it's more likely the technical effect the movement.

Trader#8609

Oct 13, 2011 7:16am

so reason was not there behind euro rising

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