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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,561
  • Sep 23, 2011 3:44am Sep 23, 2011 3:44am
Breaking the red trendlines,possible we would see 75.75,Only Possible
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,562
  • Sep 23, 2011 8:34am Sep 23, 2011 8:34am
whatever happening,I am believe something big its coming,I never see this kind of do re mi moves over a month
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,563
  • Sep 23, 2011 8:40am Sep 23, 2011 8:40am
Quoting Chillypiper
What a post dude! Tell it like it is....

You must admit there is a curtain anticipation to this need for a different policy. And with that , we may see a possable huge move here... like the swissy and the crap it pulled...

Anyway, I'm just a dog looking for a good meal...

Best Regards
Ill play what ever happens regardless... That is why I said if the UJ breaks 78 we will look at a retest of 80.24

Honestly though I just think we need a REASON for these things to happen. Its hard to compare Japan to Switzerland. Much different Macroeconomic forces at work for each country. Im not ruling out that Japan would peg to the USD. But frankly, they have a much larger macro global responsibility than switzerland does.
So its sort of apples to oranges. Plus the sheer amount of liquidity it takes to move the Uj is very different from the more illiquid UCHF

Again not saying it cant happen... Anything is possible.. and when we do get to 65 major guns may get pulled out and massive capitulation may follow

but its always good to know why this stuff may happen. What the underlying causes are. Thats my edge anyways

  • #27,564
  • Edited 9:17am Sep 23, 2011 9:06am | Edited 9:17am
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...42#post4982375

So, regardless of whether anything happens with the yen next week, I'd like to post my strategy for taking full advantage of it and would like some constructive feedback.
I'm supposing an intervention will, at the very least, shoot for the lower 80.00 zone. Anymore than that would be nice but I can't imagine it.
I used the 8/4/11 event as a guide for the tiered BS strategy. It looks good to me but I think my 50 pip SL might need to be enlarged.
I'd also like to get some opinions on the other yen crosses and how to prepare a "ladder" of buy stops with appropriately placed SL & TP.
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More than a grain of salt is advisable
  • #27,565
  • Sep 23, 2011 10:23am Sep 23, 2011 10:23am
very interesting upswing. Is this the beginning of "it"
  • #27,566
  • Sep 23, 2011 10:56am Sep 23, 2011 10:56am
Once upon a time a old guy told me "what cant go down would go up"
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,567
  • Sep 23, 2011 11:05am Sep 23, 2011 11:05am
Once upon a time a old guy told me "sell yen and sell euro"
ROBOT FOREX
  • #27,568
  • Edited 11:53pm Sep 23, 2011 11:25am | Edited 11:53pm
Quoting Forbes55
Once upon a time a old guy told me "sell yen and sell euro"
Then Dollar Would Be bought
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,569
  • Sep 23, 2011 11:53am Sep 23, 2011 11:53am
this buying is very smooth, almost like someone with huge firepower releasing it via robots to achieve smooth, non-disruptive rise.

what are the tells?
  • #27,570
  • Sep 23, 2011 12:16pm Sep 23, 2011 12:16pm
The chart looks great right now. We finally have the breakout I´ve been looking for. The RSI is up to 57. We need to break above the 200 SMA and hold it to confirm that this is what I think it is.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,571
  • Sep 23, 2011 12:24pm Sep 23, 2011 12:24pm
Quoting freiburg
this buying is very smooth, almost like someone with huge firepower releasing it via robots to achieve smooth, non-disruptive rise.

what are the tells?
on the smaller charts it really crazy technicals, haven't seen the likes of this since just after the last intervention. Is this the BoJ?
  • #27,572
  • Sep 23, 2011 12:30pm Sep 23, 2011 12:30pm
it is Emperor Hirohito himself, pressing the buy button while sitting on his golden toilet in the palace in the middle of Tokyo. oh oh...he just pressed sell
  • #27,573
  • Sep 23, 2011 12:31pm Sep 23, 2011 12:31pm
nothing special in volume, this looks like a slow fake like day before yesterday, could be very wrong but closed long @ 76.85

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,574
  • Sep 23, 2011 12:34pm Sep 23, 2011 12:34pm
Quoting USD-Bear
nothing special in volume, this looks like a slow fake like day before yesterday, could be very wrong but closed long @ 76.85

Attachment
I closed the trading long I bought yesterday at 76.82. I am still holding my 10 long term contracts. Will hold those until we hit 100.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,575
  • Sep 23, 2011 12:36pm Sep 23, 2011 12:36pm
Quoting Alorente
I closed the trading long I bought yesterday at 76.82. I am still holding my 10 long term contracts. Will hold those until we hit 100.
good luck with them, never succeeded in those position trades, stay grabbing the small bits
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,576
  • Sep 23, 2011 12:45pm Sep 23, 2011 12:45pm
all long closed
I look forward to the new low
  • #27,577
  • Sep 23, 2011 12:46pm Sep 23, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting USD-Bear
good luck with them, never succeeded in those position trades, stay grabbing the small bits
I´m like you Bear. I´ve always felt it is easier to catch ten 1 kg fish than one 10 kg one, but I´ve been keeping an eye on USD/JPY for months now. I traded it dozens of times for great profit and I´ve been seeing a lifetime opportunity develop as a long term hold. I´ll continue to trade the pair like crazy, but I´ll let these 10 contracts net me a nice 200,000 if we get to 100. There are few oportunities like this in Forex. I let the euro move from .86 to 1.60 escape me even though I saw it clearly before it developed. I´m not going to let this one escape.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,578
  • Sep 23, 2011 1:05pm Sep 23, 2011 1:05pm
Quoting Alorente
I´m like you Bear. I´ve always felt it is easier to catch ten 1 kg fish than one 10 kg one, but I´ve been keeping an eye on USD/JPY for months now. I traded it dozens of times for great profit and I´ve been seeing a lifetime opportunity develop as a long term hold. I´ll continue to trade the pair like crazy, but I´ll let these 10 contracts net me a nice 200,000 if we get to 100. There are few oportunities like this in Forex. I let the euro move from .86 to 1.60 escape me even though I saw it clearly before it developed. I´m not going to let this...
Same here, I missed the 9/20 EUR blast by 30 minutes but was able to take a ride on the 9/21 train north. My ladder to 1.2500 is still sitting there waiting.

Honestly, after 6 months of demo trading, it was the Aug. 4th JPY intervention that had me funding a live account within 10 minutes and I took the 5 day, slow boat short to 76.00.
I'm sure most of you know what it was like the first time you went live. I was a nervous mess and couldn't pull the trigger as the yen was still moving up. I had to calm down and wait for the pullback cause I had NO idea how high it would go or if it was a peg to the dollar.

So yeh, I'm not going to miss the next big move up. Got kids graduating HS soon and I'd like to give them a few nice things before they head off to the USAF for a few years.
More than a grain of salt is advisable
  • #27,579
  • Sep 23, 2011 1:15pm Sep 23, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting jabbawest
Same here, I missed the 9/20 EUR blast by 30 minutes but was able to take a ride on the 9/21 train north. My ladder to 1.2500 is still sitting there waiting.

Honestly, after 6 months of demo trading, it was the Aug. 4th JPY intervention that had me funding a live account within 10 minutes and I took the 5 day, slow boat short to 76.00.
I'm sure most of you know what it was like the first time you went live. I was a nervous mess and couldn't pull the trigger as the yen was still moving up. I had to calm down and wait for the pullback cause I had...
I tell you, if we get to the spring with the polls pointing to an almost sure republican win in 2012 (which I believe will happen), you are going to see the dollar rocket up against the yen. It will be a gradual climb starting probably around now and it will gather legs in the spring to fall of next year. Both Perry and Romney have talked down the easy money Fed policy and are talking up King dollar as in the Reagan years.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,580
  • Sep 23, 2011 1:23pm Sep 23, 2011 1:23pm
i thought i would be happy with 82, but you are gunning for a 100??
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