vsa with Malcolm

Nice to see some life back in the thread...

Wow the whole days gains gone... what a drop

Was away from my computer but the 1min chart gave a couple of entries post FOMC. Saw some big selling and then had weakness confirmed on a couple of weak retrace attempts into the highest volume bar.

Seems to have found some support back at the days low.

Forgot about this trade and got called into a meeting. There was a retrace up to 87.10 almost stopping me out and then FOMC happened and I came back and price was at 85.25 so I closed out this last lot.

I see EU made it all the way to the 3780 supply area. Wow, what a drop from there.

The post-FOMC was interesting, and, with hindsight, ES and xxxUSD levels presumably priced in. And, if xxxUSDs and equities got up there based solely on that optimism - and have now collapsed, there does not appear to be a bottom in yet.

4pm NY ES has closed 55 points off it's morning high, losing more than half after the 2:20pm FOMC announcement. BUT, more interesting is the incredible selling pressure that 6E continues to see as the 5pm close rolls around, not to mention the daunting daily candle and 220 pip decline and upper rejection that will be left on the daily chart. It's this pre-5pm selling volume that I think will be telling; if nothing else, it is well aligned with the ES decline that occurred after 3:30pm NY time. (Volume ladder chart is complete to close of 4:30pm candle - note the sellers overwhelming any buyers - it's the boxes right above the candle time)

Am also throwing in a 5pm NY close chart of spot EU, showing some of the previous similar such declines since the 1.49 top, and the fibbing of the initial part of those moves; my expectation has been that this current dive down from 1.45x to the bottom of 1.3493, is not done, as has been the case with similar such moves. My next target is really into the 1.30's. Today's candle helps.

Simply amazing where price stood right at FOMC release time... manipulation at it's best. Why would SM not want to mark up the markets to a nice high, familiar level just in time to sell the hell out of it. The minutes leading up to the release price literally was dancing along the low of that major weakness bar from last Thursday...

Very poetic and beautiful to look at it in hindsight on a completed chart... well planned and played on their part. I mean look at that like hourly upbar into the bottom of that supply zone... one of the widest spread bars on on of the lowest volume readings of the day and a close below the supply. SM had zero interest in higher prices or taking on any supply... classic mark-up, trap bar making a new weekly high with no backing interest.

They knew full well what the FOMC statement and rates would entail and they knew they were going short.

A 38.2 fib retrace c/w rejection on the daily chart... very powerful if that low fails should signal another good leg down.

Holly crap I just realized (don't know how I missed it before) that Thursday selling bar was the very bar that formed the 38.2 fib rejection bar on the daily... cool.

118.0 all time lows on the cards for gj

http://kreslik.com/forums/userpix/10...otivator_1.jpg

Some thoughts and observations about yesterday, EU/US 5’ opportunities.

It was FOMC day so a holding day with not much chances to high probability traders.

Price did a WW with its PS, SC and AR followed with a ST that did not push trough AR hi.

Price then retested the SC area with a SO that did not moved too far. Then another SO and our first opportunity to go long.

1.We had SOS on the background with the WW so when price took the hi of the SO bar (signaled with a blue 1) I went long.

That movement did not go that far. Next bar closed away from its hi’s signaling supply coming in… Price went down, took me out with a loss and then made another SO.

What it looked to me is that there was a minor WW: the first SO could be a “ps”, then a “sc”, and an “ar”… Any way, latter on we had a SO that gave us the second chance to go long.

2.With SOS on the background with the WW, there was a SO where we wanted it. Price moved up fast with a Crossing The Creek jump, above the minor “ar”.

Unfortunately I was not fast enough to take that signal.

From there price moved in a congestion until it did another SO at the previous PS area that moved the market above the previous AR area in another Crossing the Creek jump.

Price stopped in the old PSY area from yesterday where we saw supply entering the market.

Then price retraced from that zone to retest the AR area just broken and giving us the third chance to participate long.

3.A perfect test where we wanted to see it: a bar making a new low at an area of support (also a Delta Zone) with less volume than previous two bars and closing on its up third of the range.

The previous supply coming in to the market at that old PSY area did not match my plan as I considered it a SOW so I skipped that signal.

Market moved up any way until closing the previous days gap that was still above.

Hope it makes sense.

Trade I took recently. EU short off a ND into the low of a supply / UHV absorption / push through bar. We pushed through the 9.12.2011 low / base on high volume and closed on the low showing that SM had short side interest. A Weak retrace to test, ND and entry off the continued / confirmed weakness. Background still screaming weaknes.

EU looks like some decent demand has been picked up at 3400. Possibly looking for a move back up to test that recently pushed through 3500 level.

Nice one, I took the exact same trade. Made a few off it but got out too early (again!)

I closed out my second lot at 3400 after seeing the buying come in.

Oil Long I took, was thinking about adding on the upper no selling pressure but the volume though lower than previous 2 was too high for my liking.

Lot 1 closed and lot 2 at BE to trail...

Nice to see your still killing it in oil. Well done.

Thanks Sono

hi,

going long aud at 9790 after seeing what looks to be strength appearing under 9800

@ Pres78;

Very unique application of Fibs on those WRBs. Seems to take the trigger level/number concept to a whole new level.