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Flag trading the trend

  • #5,181
  • Sep 20, 2011 3:11am Sep 20, 2011 3:11am
As i mentioned before; despite having less than half the points total of the EurUsd; (DAX currently around 5500 points compared to the euro's 13700), the DAX still gives lots of set-ups with the same 1 pip rules etc.
You could have chosen this instead for your 20 points:

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...rk72/5min2.png
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  • #5,182
  • Sep 20, 2011 3:18am Sep 20, 2011 3:18am
Great work cable guy. You really make it look simple
  • #5,183
  • Sep 20, 2011 3:20am Sep 20, 2011 3:20am
Quoting The Cableguy
6 months studying flag trading and it truly does come down to intuition and sheer experience of watching which trades work, which fail, what times to trade, when to walk away etc...
For the last couple of weeks i have started concentrating on 2B reversal's.
Lots to learn yet, but my god! They are deadly and an invaluable tool. Even if you don't trade the actual reversal itself, it gives the 'head's up' as to change of direction. Once established, look for the set-up to trade...
Hi Cableguy

Yep I'm coming to a similar conclusion as you, slowly but surely, its all about taking the reversals on the 1 min chart back in the direction of the 15min trend. It keeps me out of all those losing subs!

But like you I often just watch or sometimes miss, the reversal pattern but then just trade the first pullback in the new direction.

I notice you have posted a 5 min chart are you trading 5 min charts only?

I'm looking at the 1 min with the 5 and 15 min in the back ground. I find the best entries for me (highest probability) are when the 1 minute is trending in the opposite direction to the 15 min then like you I just wait for a reversal signal on the 1 min then take the next sub in the direction of the 15 min trend.

I like to use the 123 reversal pattern as per my entry from yesterdays London session(see chart below) when all the bigger time frames were trending down, so just watch for the 1 min to reverse then take the next qualifying sub that triggers.

I'm very comfortable with 123 reversals but not quite so sure what qualifies as a 2b reversal, could you explain how you identify them, also do you find them reliable on 1 minute charts? Or is that why you are using 5 min charts?

Many thanks for sharing

Lets keep those flags flying!!!

Just added a possible 123 reversal happening right now!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Happening right now.jpg Size: 133 KB
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,184
  • Sep 20, 2011 3:24am Sep 20, 2011 3:24am
Quoting phneutral
First Trade.

First entry at the break of the flag was stopped out, but I enter again after seeing the retest of that line. BE at the time, think will be ok.

Cheers
PH
PHN; if my views are welcome, i would be happy to comment on the above set-up...
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  • #5,185
  • Sep 20, 2011 3:30am Sep 20, 2011 3:30am
Quote

'I'm very comfortable with 123 reversals but not quite so sure what qualifies as a 2b reversal, could you explain how you identify them, also do you find them reliable on 1 minute charts? Or is that why you are using 5 min charts?'

-----------------------------------------------

Clive, have a read of this, probably explains it better than i can.
Again it comes down to interpretation. I have found so far that it does indeed work well on any of the 1/2/5/15min charts

http://www.trading-naked.com/2b-reversal.htm

regards TCG.
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  • #5,186
  • Sep 20, 2011 3:34am Sep 20, 2011 3:34am
Quoting The Cableguy
FWIW, i think we may be starting a bit of a longer trip north for the Eur, (not without its pullbacks along the way...

Here is this mornings easy 20 points, following the rules;

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...k72/5min-2.png
Thanks for putting these examples up they are great examples for the rest of us to follow.

It helps enormously to see actual trades, thanks.

We are up against some strong resistance right now at 1.3700 level so are you keeping an open mind to direction for this afternoons New York session?

Could be an ideal place for a reversal? What do you think?
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,187
  • Sep 20, 2011 3:58am Sep 20, 2011 3:58am
Quoting The Cableguy
Quote
Clive, have a read of this, probably explains it better than i can.
Again it comes down to interpretation. I have found so far that it does indeed work well on any of the 1/2/5/15min charts

http://www.trading-naked.com/2b-reversal.htm

regards TCG.
Thanks have had a read of that and it helps however do you use divergence with a 2b reversal?
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,188
  • Sep 20, 2011 4:10am Sep 20, 2011 4:10am
Quoting clivepackham
Thanks have had a read of that and it helps however do you use divergence with a 2b reversal?

Nope, its far simpler than that!
This may shed some light on it, although i keep noticing more details everyday just from my own intuition;
hope this helps...

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...rk72/2Brev.png
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  • #5,189
  • Sep 20, 2011 7:04am Sep 20, 2011 7:04am
I took this trade, but got out at -3 pips after seeing the 5min candle that got sold off rapidly about half way through to target; i just didn't like the PA... ultimately if i relied on my stop placement as per the old rules, (a pip below the lowest point of retrace); i would have had a winner...

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...rk72/5min3.png

With the spike up through the last high on the 5min being just one candle, we can switch to the 1min to get a better take on what's happening and see if we have a decent 2B reversal taking shape!
This is a slightly different rule that i read to taking 2B reversals;

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...k72/2brev3.png
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  • #5,190
  • Sep 20, 2011 7:18am Sep 20, 2011 7:18am
Quoting The Cableguy
PHN; if my views are welcome, i would be happy to comment on the above set-up...
I know. Line don't have enough touch points and it was a forced draw. Also, entry was to soon. There's no SUB there...

Risking myself to lost two times instead of one as I could have waited for the sub like in your setup.

Dealing with my emotions, I was pissed off by the first stop at the pip, just to see it go back again...

You can add your critics to mines

Regards
PH
  • #5,191
  • Sep 20, 2011 7:23am Sep 20, 2011 7:23am
Well how do you guys read the trend right now?

Should we be looking for sell set ups or buy set ups?

Not to clear is it?
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,192
  • Sep 20, 2011 7:41am Sep 20, 2011 7:41am
Quoting clivepackham
Well how do you guys read the trend right now?

Should we be looking for sell set ups or buy set ups?

Not to clear is it?
Last LH was taken. BULL

Lets wait for the flag!

PH
  • #5,193
  • Sep 20, 2011 7:49am Sep 20, 2011 7:49am
Quoting phneutral
I know. Line don't have enough touch points and it was a forced draw. Also, entry was to soon. There's no SUB there...

Risking myself to lost two times instead of one as I could have waited for the sub like in your setup.

Dealing with my emotions, I was pissed off by the first stop at the pip, just to see it go back again...

You can add your critics to mines

Regards
PH
--------------------------------

Lol, well yes...
Not critics at all, i don't pretend i know all there is to know, however, if my observations can help, i'm all for sharing them!
These views are taking Divergences system and just deciphering how the market plays them. Therefore my take on things such as 'touchpoints' and switching from the 1min to 2min to 5min etc are purely my own observations....
If i may explain, a couple of charts to follow...

As a generalisation; I look at the 1min for set-ups up to 30/40mins then i will change to the 2min if it hasn't triggered by then. Over 1hr 30mins and i will look at the 5min upto probably 4hours, then i will look for the 15min chart... As a result; often there are set-ups within set-ups...

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...2/1minidea.png

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...2/2minidea.png
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  • #5,194
  • Edited 8:17am Sep 20, 2011 8:06am | Edited 8:17am
All by the rules, lets see how it develops.

Edit: Out of the trade as PA lost momentum. BE
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  • #5,195
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:19am Sep 20, 2011 8:19am
Quoting The Cableguy
--------------------------------

Lol, well yes...
Not critics at all, i don't pretend i know all there is to know, however, if my observations can help, i'm all for sharing them!
These views are taking Divergences system and just deciphering how the market plays them. Therefore my take on things such as 'touchpoints' and switching from the 1min to 2min to 5min etc are purely my own observations....
If i may explain, a couple of charts to follow...

As a generalisation; I look at the 1min for set-ups up to 30/40mins then i will change to...
Thank you very much Cableguy. I will reflect on those lessons.
  • #5,196
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:23am Sep 20, 2011 8:23am
Cableguy

I really like your touchpoints to define what constitutes a decent flag. In essence, you look for a break of the previous high/low and wait for an immediate pullback. You then wait for at least two touches in order to define a flag and then wait for the sub. When do you decide when/if to drop down to a lower t/f?
  • #5,197
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:56am Sep 20, 2011 8:56am
Think this one meet the criteria.

Your thoughts please Cableguy

Edit: Out -9 pips. Will enter if this is a 2B and new flag break out...
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  • #5,198
  • Sep 20, 2011 9:33am Sep 20, 2011 9:33am
There is a clue on the 15min chart;
check out the low of the 10.15 (GMT) candle - 13649.9 (according to IG),
now look at the low of the 15:00 candle - 13647.5...

A new LL negates the HH.
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  • #5,199
  • Sep 20, 2011 9:59am Sep 20, 2011 9:59am
Yes, and many other clues.

Harmonics, divergences, etc.

Still being impulsive and not peeing enough attention to the 15 minute charts.

Regards
PH
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  • #5,200
  • Edited 12:04pm Sep 20, 2011 10:37am | Edited 12:04pm
So much happening, its difficult to keep up!
This a very ambitious chart. As always if you look hard enough, the clues are all there. I didn't take the full R:R on the first set-up, lost -3 on the second as explained and i haven't traded the last short (on the RHS of the chart) as i missed the entry, it has given 20 points up already, but i'm watching eagerly to see if the target gets hit. Amazing stuff if so!

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...rk72/5min4.png


*edit* that would now have been a BE stop
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