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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,201
  • Sep 15, 2011 5:23am Sep 15, 2011 5:23am
Quoting FXMindset
I am will speaking again in coming 30 minutes,are you ready guys
Great....that's just what we need.......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,202
  • Sep 15, 2011 5:26am Sep 15, 2011 5:26am
Quoting fosking
Yep, the reason it's not going anywhere. It's almost pegged! lol.

The orange line is the USD and the purple is the JPY.

USD/JPY H1
Attachment
I´ve been suspecting this for a while now. That´s why I said "unoficially" in a previous post. For the past 5 weeks, everytime jpy hits under 56.60, you get buying as if by magic. I think it is pegged and buying at this level is as safe as you can get.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,203
  • Sep 15, 2011 5:44am Sep 15, 2011 5:44am
I'm going to be on the sidelines until these correlations are sorted out.

The daily chart doesn't offer any help for the bulls either.
The USD is trying to move in the right way but the Yen is fighting (even breaking resistance).
It looks like a tough one to call either way and I hate ranging markets lol.

USD/JPY Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ2.png Size: 194 KB
  • #27,204
  • Sep 15, 2011 5:44am Sep 15, 2011 5:44am
news a bit of risk-off on first review
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,205
  • Sep 15, 2011 5:46am Sep 15, 2011 5:46am
Quoting USD-Bear
news a bit of risk-off on first review
Yes. Good for USDJPY, bad for S&P and Euro.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,206
  • Sep 15, 2011 5:51am Sep 15, 2011 5:51am
Quoting Alorente
Yes. Good for USDJPY, bad for S&P and Euro.
nah..., good for S&P and Euro and UJ or is it the other way around
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,207
  • Sep 15, 2011 5:54am Sep 15, 2011 5:54am
The Filly Fed Manufacturing Index will be the next hurdle......oh.....and that idiot Trichet flappin his gums a bit later!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,208
  • Sep 15, 2011 5:56am Sep 15, 2011 5:56am
We are GOING UP!


http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/0...tes-in-usdjpy/

USD/JPY has jumped in the last few minutes on rumors that the BOJ is “checking rates”. That means the BOJ trading desk is calling around to banks asking what USD/JPY is doing which is meant to put traders on guard for intervention.
We’re at 76.75 from 76.58 as the data was released at 12:30 GMT.

Btw am long around @ 76.83 simply because break the 3 Poin of trendlines and I dont think even BOJ intervence when their market close ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily.png Size: 30 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,209
  • Sep 15, 2011 5:57am Sep 15, 2011 5:57am
Quoting realjumper
As we have tragically seen.

So who can explain the continued run to the 'safe haven' Yen, in language that a simpleton like me can understand?
I´ll give it a try. I believe the "safe haven" label attributed to the Yen is erroneous. Due to the requirements of my company (www.lorente.us), I have been to China and Japan many times. I have many friends and associates there. The Japanese people are very nationalistic, in the good sense of the word. They "feel" better buying Japanese products and holding Yen. The Yen "safe haven" view is almost stricly national. On top of that, most Japanese exporters get payed in US dollars. Instead of having dollar denominated accounts, due to the steep fall of the dollar in recent times, they quickly convert them to Yen, prolonging the Dollar/Yen decline. The same thing happened in 1991. USD/JPY fell for over three years non stop, but look at what followed in the monthy chart attached. The Dollar recovered completely in the following three years. I think the current situation is analogous to 1991-1997. We´ve had a steep decline for over 3 years and we are about ready to reverse the whole thing back to the 120 level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 95 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,210
  • Sep 15, 2011 6:04am Sep 15, 2011 6:04am
Quoting Alorente
I´ll give it a try. I believe the "safe haven" label attributed to the Yen is erroneous. Due to the requirements of my company (www.lorente.us), I have been to China and Japan many times. I have many friends and associates there. The Japanese people are very nationalistic, in the good sense of the word. They "feel" better buying Japanese products and holding Yen. The Yen "safe haven" view is almost stricly national. On top of that, most Japanese exporters get payed in US dollars. Instead of having dollar...
Interesting. You're right about Japanese people being nationalistic.....I worked for a Japanese owned and run company here in NZ for many years, so I understand what you're saying. What you say about the repatriation of the Yen may be true up to a point, but I don't think they have the sheer volume to cause what we are witnessing. Outside money is flowing into the Yen, but I don't know why!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,211
  • Sep 15, 2011 6:06am Sep 15, 2011 6:06am
This chaostic moves now because am speaking ? Now Way ??!
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,212
  • Sep 15, 2011 6:07am Sep 15, 2011 6:07am
Fed bails out ECB with dollar funding
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,213
  • Sep 15, 2011 6:12am Sep 15, 2011 6:12am
Quoting realjumper
Interesting. You're right about Japanese people being nationalistic.....I worked for a Japanese owned and run company here in NZ for many years, so I understand what you're saying. What you say about the repatriation of the Yen may be true up to a point, but I don't think they have the sheer volume to cause what we are witnessing. Outside money is flowing into the Yen, but I don't know why!!!
The rest of the money is simply going on for the ride. Hedge funds, large forex traders, etc. They will jump on board the runaway trend, but they will be the first to run for the hills when the trend begins to change. That´s why I think it will be pretty sudden once people realize what is happening. It always takes a little time to turn an ocean liner. This trade has been going on for years now. But when it turns it will be lightning quick in the other direction.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,214
  • Sep 15, 2011 6:17am Sep 15, 2011 6:17am
Quoting Alorente
The rest of the money is simply going on for the ride. Hedge funds, large forex traders, etc. They will jump on board the runaway trend, but they will be the first to run for the hills when the trend begins to change. That´s why I think it will be pretty sudden once people realize what is happening. It always takes a little time to turn an ocean liner. This trade has been going on for years now. But when it turns it will be lightning quick in the other direction.
Very interesting.Thanks.

It's good that you see 120 at some stage in the future, I have my eyes on 100 plus, for quite some time now and I'm certain that 100 is within reach once this trend reverses.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,215
  • Sep 15, 2011 6:22am Sep 15, 2011 6:22am
Quoting FXMindset
This chaostic moves now because am speaking ? Now Way ??!
You´re funny. You´ve made me smile several times already.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,216
  • Sep 15, 2011 6:26am Sep 15, 2011 6:26am
The people that just jumped head over heels into the Euro because uncle Bernanke came to the rescue, don´t realize that the real news is the confirmation that European banks are seriously in trouble. It was a rumor. Now it is confirmed. I expect a reversal in the euro pretty quickly.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,217
  • Sep 15, 2011 6:29am Sep 15, 2011 6:29am
[quote=FXMindset;4957674]We are GOING UP! USD/JPY has jumped in the last few minutes on rumors that the BOJ is “checking rates”.
/quote]

Look at the difference in Jpy related pairs. Jpy is depreciating towards Chf/Eur/Aud/Gbp with Usd lagging hugely.

More downside when Philly numbers come in ?
  • #27,218
  • Sep 15, 2011 6:29am Sep 15, 2011 6:29am
Quoting Alorente
The people that just jumped head over heels into the Euro because uncle Bernanke came to the rescue, don´t realize that the real news is the confirmation that European banks are seriously in trouble. It was a rumor. Now it is confirmed. I expect a reversal in the euro pretty quickly.
I'm with you on that!
  • #27,219
  • Sep 15, 2011 6:30am Sep 15, 2011 6:30am
Quoting Alorente
You´re funny. You´ve made me smile several times already.
Yeah,hope 120 coming ya starting from now so i have money for married soon
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,220
  • Sep 15, 2011 6:32am Sep 15, 2011 6:32am
Quoting FXMindset
Yeah,hope 120 coming ya starting from now so i have money for married soon
Congratulations. You are getting married? You look pretty old in the picture, but I guess us old guys can get married too. I´m 61 and single. How old are you?
Observation is the path to discovery.
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