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End the Euro - Yea or Nay?

  • #21
  • Sep 5, 2011 4:17pm Sep 5, 2011 4:17pm
What CharlesX236 said
  • #22
  • Sep 5, 2011 4:48pm Sep 5, 2011 4:48pm
Quoting The Fool
Or you can make a prediction: is the Euro toast?
When the price of EUR/USD = 0.00000 we may know the answer.
  • #23
  • Sep 5, 2011 5:08pm Sep 5, 2011 5:08pm
Quoting beachallstar

On the surface it would seem to be better to have a lot more pairs to trade,but the bid/ask spread would be a lot wider than the typical bid/ask spread that is on the Euro, and only a handful of pairs would have the liquidity to be suitable to most typical traders?
There are those who like the volatility. Perhaps it wouldn't be so different than trading GBP/NZD or metals for that matter.
  • #24
  • Sep 6, 2011 1:19am Sep 6, 2011 1:19am
From a trading perspective the only questions that matter are:

1/ Could the Euro possible get stronger at this time (being already at a very surprising high evel)?
A/ Almost certaintly not.

2/ Is there prospects for a lack of confidence in the Euro reducing its value?
A/ So obvious it doesn't need an answer.

So as a position trade I'm short on the Euro and expect a serious decline in the coming weeks and months (perhaps as much as a 25% decline against GBP and USD).

A decline in the value of the Euro would be brilliant news for Spain and Portugal who rely upon tourism for a significant part of their GDP so it would be a win-win for Europe too.... so the Europoean Central Bank won't be falling over themselves to try to stem the decline.
  • #25
  • Sep 6, 2011 1:23am Sep 6, 2011 1:23am
It doesnt matter whether it should or shouldnt. There wont be a EMU AND a EU by the end of 2012 . 1989 revisited. Open your eyes, its all in front of you and it has been for a long time.
  • #26
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:53am Sep 6, 2011 3:53am
Quoting SirMcPip
It doesnt matter whether it should or shouldnt. There wont be a EMU AND a EU by the end of 2012 . 1989 revisited. Open your eyes, its all in front of you and it has been for a long time.
Only if you believe in the mayan prophecies for the end of 2012.

The EU is here to stay for a vey long time, even if I like it or not. Some countries will go back to their pre-2001 currencies but they will remain in the EU without sharing the EMU. Maybe Greece and Portugal will leave altogether and will default but not Italy and Spain.

Quoting sisse
The main problem is for the other players. Greece is paying +50% on 2 yrs bond AND THATS with THE EURO, imaging without it ... (inflation, depression, devaluation, etc, CHAOS more than now)....
50% is the current yield. If you buy a 2 yrs bond today and Greece will not default in 2 years, when you'll redeem it you'll get 100% on your investment. But you buy from the market and not from Greece.

Greece has never been a fiscally disciplined country and probably will never be. On average they would have been better off without euro which means poorer than the western europe but happier overall.
  • #27
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:57am Sep 6, 2011 4:57am
Don't worry... SNB to the rescue.


and it looks pretty impressive thus far.

Will the SNB pull it off? Will poor little euro survive?

Don't you touch that SNB channel.

Tune in next time when BOJ says "Wow, why didn't we think of that?"

Stay tuned.... Same SNB channel, same SNB time...
  • #28
  • Sep 6, 2011 5:09am Sep 6, 2011 5:09am
Quoting Sauron
Only if you believe in the mayan prophecies for the end of 2012.

The EU is here to stay for a vey long time, even if I like it or not. Some countries will go back to their pre-2001 currencies but they will remain in the EU without sharing the EMU. Maybe Greece and Portugal will leave altogether and will default but not Italy and Spain.

50% is the current yield. If you buy a 2 yrs bond today and Greece will not default in 2 years, when you'll redeem it you'll get 100% on your investment.

Greece has never been a fiscally disciplined...
Sure mate that was exactly my point with the 2yrs (maybe I shouldn't have use the word paying). Greece 2 yrs with the EZ (as "quality" assurance) is at +50% imaging without it. What are Zambian, Zimbabwe 2yrs paying ( I can't find any other country?)

In any case, I disagree that Greece would have been better off without euro, with their macroeconomic record and free riding (printing money like they used to do like mad) in the middle of the world's financial crisis would have meant poorer than the western Europe, without access to credit markets (no difference there) but with a double digit inflation and officially defaulted without any free money from the EZ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #29
  • Edited 9:17am Sep 6, 2011 5:52am | Edited 9:17am
Quoting Sauron
Only if you believe in the mayan prophecies for the end of 2012.

The EU is here to stay for a vey long time, even if I like it or not. Some countries will go back to their pre-2001 currencies but they will remain in the EU without sharing the EMU. Maybe Greece and Portugal will leave altogether and will default but not Italy and Spain.


50% is the current yield. If you buy a 2 yrs bond today and Greece will not default in 2 years, when you'll redeem it you'll get 100% on your investment. But you buy from the market and not from Greece....
Sure comrade. Thats what your fellow Russian Communists said too .
And what does this have to do with your Mayan Prophecies?
  • #30
  • Sep 6, 2011 8:40am Sep 6, 2011 8:40am
Mayan or not here we come.

Tick-Tock on the Clock.

No matter if you want it or not, something is a brewing....

Brought to you buy the USPS... "hey we need a bail out too!"
  • #31
  • Last Post: Sep 6, 2011 10:12am Sep 6, 2011 10:12am
At this point, I think that the ending of the Euro will cause more disruption in the short and medium term than the long term benefits will bring. It is inevitable there will be some changes in the makeup of the Eurozone and some countries will definitely be moved out.
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