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  • #505,461
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:15am Aug 1, 2011 10:15am
Quoting darimik
question is how big... 38 is one. where as 78 is another.
I have 75ish on the short term chart...if 40 gives it up...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart2.gif Size: 13 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #505,462
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:16am Aug 1, 2011 10:16am
Quoting sofia101
It should ,but momentum not there now and offers coming ,will see
I warned you about offers )
  • #505,463
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:18am Aug 1, 2011 10:18am
Quoting Unknownpips
NIKKEI reports Japanese intervention!? http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=307191

All aboard the train north?

The intervention will make the USD stronger ...
  • #505,464
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:18am Aug 1, 2011 10:18am
Quoting deeZG
+1

@Nighttrader
ema20 is a pretty poor way of defining a trend. not that it can't help, but relying strictly on it will put you in a position like today - you're just gonna miss things.
Yes I miss a lot waiting for them to change but still can't see a trade against them as anything else than a countertrend trade. From friday low it was not even a 38% fib retrace before people seems to be full of shorts.
  • #505,465
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:20am Aug 1, 2011 10:20am
Quoting sofia101
I warned you about offers )
But I am still holding 1 short)
  • #505,466
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:20am Aug 1, 2011 10:20am
Quoting EuroTrader
The intervention will make the USD stronger ...
.... lol...

I guess it depeneds on what they intervene with? BOJ Intervention with Yen (strengthening the $), or buying the euro (weakening the $).

When has intervention ever been a good thing anyways.... lol
  • #505,467
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:21am Aug 1, 2011 10:21am
Quoting Nighttrader
Amaze me a little bit how many seems to catch the short today. Are you all countertrend traders?
That short was so big hat if you were anywhere near your computer at the time, hard to not get something out of it

But, I will say this. much as I am nearly a complete n00b at trading (but have a huge amount of experience in a kind of analysis that turns out to be really useful for trading), the slightly simplistic methods Im using have predicted every major move over the last week or so, even if the actual target levels and timing were a bit fluffy. Ive seen posts to suggest that today is an oddity, the high of friday was an oddity etc - I dont think they are at all, but maybe just hard to pick out.

I would suggest this - ignore such posts - go back over the charts - particularly W1, D1 and H4 and attempt to explain the last week - is all there one way or another and very many of the charts that people have posted on this thread over the last week have highlighted the clues as well.

Im guessing the folks with way way more experience than me probably got it all as well and got it alot tighter and they can probably exactly highlight the whys of specific levels and the timings in better details etc.

Meanwhile Im going back over them to see if I could have got timings and targets better as now that the fall was 5 days early - I have to work out WTF to do next! :o

I suspect that its just overshot and will drift back up to find its correct price and rejoin the trend it was supposed to be on for most of august.
  • #505,468
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:21am Aug 1, 2011 10:21am
Feels like Algo's have control right now?
  • #505,469
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:23am Aug 1, 2011 10:23am
believe that it is possible to make a target in 4090!?
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  • #505,470
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:25am Aug 1, 2011 10:25am
http://gyazo.com/ecce2778d94759709e631ec76cb2beef.png


will repeat the history?
  • #505,471
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:32am Aug 1, 2011 10:32am
Quoting Nighttrader
Yes I miss a lot waiting for them to change but still can't see a trade against them as anything else than a countertrend trade. From friday low it was not even a 38% fib retrace before people seems to be full of shorts.
Normally that type of price would be considered a valid bull move (on Friday), except that we never cleared the bear cluster from the 22nd/23rd.

To H&S'ish like to ignore. Risk reward was far better to the downside then to the north. Even if bull move played out, we wouldn't have seen much higher then 4500... and, we had a nice 50% hit of the bear candle from the 27th last night at 4444'ish.

Price loves 50% of suppl/demand zones, and even better when lined up with mofu's. No idea how they calculate those, but PTL and gator come to mind when creating them and they line up with my zones quite often.
  • #505,472
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:33am Aug 1, 2011 10:33am
the hourly candle was quite strong (red candle) through the MPP....gotta be telling
  • #505,473
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:37am Aug 1, 2011 10:37am
Quoting OldQuant
Cloggie is fond of a saying that goes something like "Never mud-wrestle with a pig, because the pig like it."

Pick out the two of you in this picture.
i like pork ribs ..delicious ...but i doubt pig will like it
  • #505,474
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:38am Aug 1, 2011 10:38am
Quoting Unknownpips
NIKKEI reports Japanese intervention!? http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=307191
10:44 PM ET last night:

"Of course it is a good thing that concerns (over the U.S. debt issue) are fading," Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda told reporters at parliament when asked about the impact of a U.S. debt deal on Japan's economy.

"I hope that will be firmly reflected in the market," he added. On the question of Japan's currency policy, he said, "Our basic stance is to continue to closely watch" the currency market."
  • #505,475
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:44am Aug 1, 2011 10:44am
Quoting attila
we'll gonna move up a bit.
yeah.. about that...
  • #505,476
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:44am Aug 1, 2011 10:44am
And, it's only fitting that post #1000 should be completely devoid of any meaningful content of any kind.
  • #505,477
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:45am Aug 1, 2011 10:45am
Quoting attila
yeah.. about that...
Slow 50 pips to the upside, but think i'm going to cover here. zzzzz
  • #505,478
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:46am Aug 1, 2011 10:46am
Quoting OldQuant
And, it's only fitting that post #1000 should be completely devoid of any meaningful content of any kind.
I'm making an attempt to have at least 99% of mine go along the same lines. My posts have been to trading oriented this morning... wtf is wrong with me... lol

Universe must be out of alignment... I do feel a bit weird.
  • #505,479
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:47am Aug 1, 2011 10:47am
Quoting Venice
Slow 50 pips to the upside, but think i'm going to cover here. zzzzz
bar is open
  • #505,480
  • Aug 1, 2011 10:47am Aug 1, 2011 10:47am
what time is voting in senate? in about 10mins 7pm GMT?

What is scenario?

They vote YES, rating is still AAA EURUSD will go north or south?
They vote YES, rating is cut to AA+ EURUSD will go up or down?
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