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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #25,061
  • Jul 29, 2011 7:37am Jul 29, 2011 7:37am
Very weird, the downfall today capped @ 77.00
I would expect 76.90 or so temp bottom, but not 77.00. Maybe it's not done yet?
I plan to built up longs starting @ 76.50 until 75.00 for the longer term.
No intervention expected, only common sense.
As far as intervention, I think BOJ knows by now they can't do it alone, and who is willing to help them at the moment? Certainly NOT the USA

Orca
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #25,062
  • Jul 29, 2011 7:46am Jul 29, 2011 7:46am
Here is what I think is happening....

The Asian giant (the one with deep pockets) is winning with its hands down. Pushing USD down and Jap up is like killing two birds in one stone. No wonder they are now buying Euro as USD and Jap will take time to come out of this mess....

US has it's own problems and the debt deal/QE3 will make it worst, either way the result is. I expect UJ will further go down creating havoc to the Jap economy. What BOJ can do? Buying the cheap US papers or selling the expensive Jap currency? Both will benefit someone else.....

How do you guys see this?
  • #25,063
  • Jul 29, 2011 8:29am Jul 29, 2011 8:29am
nope, 77 is a magic number. alot of alligators waiting at 76.oo .


Quoting KillerWhale
Very weird, the downfall today capped @ 77.00
I would expect 76.90 or so temp bottom, but not 77.00. Maybe it's not done yet?
I plan to built up longs starting @ 76.50 until 75.00 for the longer term.
No intervention expected, only common sense.
As far as intervention, I think BOJ knows by now they can't do it alone, and who is willing to help them at the moment? Certainly NOT the USA

Orca
  • #25,064
  • Jul 29, 2011 12:24pm Jul 29, 2011 12:24pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Im gonna go long at Parity

this..

im gonna keep loading shorts till i actually am given a reason to stop....

added more in the 77's over this past week...

alot easier to just keep shorting this pair than try and pick the bottom
  • #25,065
  • Jul 29, 2011 12:26pm Jul 29, 2011 12:26pm
If the U.S. defaults, the pair will likely test the lows. In that case, I will look to enter around 73. (If lows are broken, I'd expect an explosion downward--similar to the flash crash). Then I'd further expect the BOJ to do some sort of intervention (perhaps they can garner G8 support?). Then I will attempt to ride it to 80ish....

Longs look very enticing, but I Just can't catch the falling knife at these levels with the current fundamental situation.
  • #25,066
  • Jul 29, 2011 12:36pm Jul 29, 2011 12:36pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Ok here is my play

Sell Limit 79.75

SL 80.10

TP1 78.80

TP2 76

Based on a major momentum break of the 79.75( which was the Kobe low back in the 90's that held for YEARS before the flash crash after Fukushima).

That level now becomes very very strong resistance... perfect for a bounce . Fundies back it up with the Yen strength and shirikawas statements today...

All systems go for take off....

July 12th...

almost there

honestly Im still pissed off cause much earlier i called that if we broke 80 we would revisit the 76... so i entered the trade and took a loss when it bounced to 81.50...

but this time i wasnt gonna let it get away so easily

gotta ride that pig http://www.smiley-lol.com/smiley/ani...vil-cochon.gif
  • #25,067
  • Jul 29, 2011 12:50pm Jul 29, 2011 12:50pm
watch for a flush the last hour before the close.. low liquidity and SL orders could punch this thing to 75 in a heartbeat....

  • #25,068
  • Jul 29, 2011 1:24pm Jul 29, 2011 1:24pm
Quoting gotpips92
If the U.S. defaults, the pair will likely test the lows. In that case, I will look to enter around 73. (If lows are broken, I'd expect an explosion downward--similar to the flash crash). Then I'd further expect the BOJ to do some sort of intervention (perhaps they can garner G8 support?). Then I will attempt to ride it to 80ish....

Longs look very enticing, but I Just can't catch the falling knife at these levels with the current fundamental situation.
if US defaults it is game over worldwide & no one can predict outcome with any certainty at any instrument.
  • #25,069
  • Jul 29, 2011 1:26pm Jul 29, 2011 1:26pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Very weird, the downfall today capped @ 77.00
I would expect 76.90 or so temp bottom, but not 77.00. Maybe it's not done yet?
I plan to built up longs starting @ 76.50 until 75.00 for the longer term.
No intervention expected, only common sense.
As far as intervention, I think BOJ knows by now they can't do it alone, and who is willing to help them at the moment? Certainly NOT the USA

Orca
Well, I guess I was right
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #25,070
  • Jul 29, 2011 7:06pm Jul 29, 2011 7:06pm
Quoting gotpips92
If the U.S. defaults, the pair will likely test the lows. In that case, I will look to enter around 73. (If lows are broken, I'd expect an explosion downward--similar to the flash crash). Then I'd further expect the BOJ to do some sort of intervention (perhaps they can garner G8 support?). Then I will attempt to ride it to 80ish....

Longs look very enticing, but I Just can't catch the falling knife at these levels with the current fundamental situation.
thanks. nice thoughts. we should able to see a long spike down. 2nd Aug will be dday.
  • #25,071
  • Jul 29, 2011 7:12pm Jul 29, 2011 7:12pm
monday this will be my game plan, when market opens if price does not retrace , i have to close it and reenter on a short . i expect to see a long spike downwards, maybe 76.475 before rallying up.how can people consider Yen to be a safe haven , when its trade flow is neg due to its appreciating value. fundamentally the the market has to re-adjust itself when people start realizing.

still some move to complete the cycle, perhaps near 73.45

http://i1187.photobucket.com/albums/z400/hyip1/ccc.gif
  • #25,072
  • Jul 29, 2011 7:54pm Jul 29, 2011 7:54pm
Quoting tankokjian
thanks. nice thoughts. we should able to see a long spike down. 2nd Aug will be dday.
If you look back after the March steep drop in UJ, a very high volatality is avoided. BOJ made it clear that they will not tolerate a move that is beyond the normal.

Over the weekend, 'IF' it is almost certain that US default will be avoided , BOJ will interfere together with CHF to avoid a final sharp drop like what happened post earthquake. High chance is that it will happen on Monday first few hours of market open in Japan or it could happen after the debt vote. I am out of all shorts and waiting with orders 25 pips away from current level on both sides with trailing SL. Hope my strategy works.
  • #25,073
  • Jul 29, 2011 8:31pm Jul 29, 2011 8:31pm
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397
  • #25,074
  • Jul 29, 2011 9:02pm Jul 29, 2011 9:02pm
Quoting tankokjian
thanks. Nice thoughts. We should able to see a long spike down. 2nd aug will be dday.
you are talking so much shit it is beyond belief
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #25,075
  • Jul 29, 2011 9:33pm Jul 29, 2011 9:33pm
Hi guys,
It seems that UJ in bearish trend and I have entered long position not once, but TWICE! I just want to ask all the experts here. Is it better to actually lock these two losing positions by way of shorting two lots? I was hoping I could at least avoid margin call and actually pick up some profits on its way down by increasing my balance.
Long Position #1: 80.00
Long position #2: 77.99
A friend asked me when do I remove these locks? I said when there's a trend reversal which I hope will happen at around 75.00.

I hope I'm pretty clear on my situation. Any inputs will be greatly appreciated. (Please no mocking of sorts, I'm quite depressed as it is to see my positions are minus). Thankssss
  • #25,076
  • Edited Jul 30, 2011 1:24am Jul 29, 2011 10:36pm | Edited Jul 30, 2011 1:24am
USD/JPY H4

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1312000271
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #25,077
  • Jul 30, 2011 1:38am Jul 30, 2011 1:38am
76.00 will be tested and hopefully will hold for now....
Next week I expect the BOJ to do a coordinated
intervention with the G7....possibly push the
pair towards 85.00 or 90.00 level ? We shall
watch with amazement...Hahaha!

Something huge is coming...a big wave to
the upside....
  • #25,078
  • Jul 30, 2011 1:57am Jul 30, 2011 1:57am
Quoting TahanBanting
Hi guys,
It seems that UJ in bearish trend and I have entered long position not once, but TWICE! I just want to ask all the experts here. Is it better to actually lock these two losing positions by way of shorting two lots? I was hoping I could at least avoid margin call and actually pick up some profits on its way down by increasing my balance.
Long Position #1: 80.00
Long position #2: 77.99
A friend asked me when do I remove these locks? I said when there's a trend reversal which I hope will happen at around 75.00.

I hope I'm pretty clear on...
I am not an expert but I always trade with a SL...
why u didn't put any SL ? This pair can go very
low towards 76.00...My advice to you is dun
play "locking"...a mistake is a mistake...next
round please put SL...

I still think 85.00 is possible if BOJ do a coordinated
intervention with the G7...if you put new "locks"
you'll be stuck two ways....so dun do it...
  • #25,079
  • Jul 30, 2011 2:57am Jul 30, 2011 2:57am
BOJ will start intervening when everyone loses hope.
the reason for the sharp south movement is investors pulling out of us and inputing in safe haven jap.

Quoting clc4x
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397
  • #25,080
  • Jul 30, 2011 5:07am Jul 30, 2011 5:07am
Possible we will see 70.50 Once It Break 76.xx
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