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Silent Service Method

  • #12,681
  • Jul 12, 2011 7:11pm Jul 12, 2011 7:11pm
Aussie vs the Yen @ 85ish looks good
  • #12,682
  • Jul 12, 2011 9:48pm Jul 12, 2011 9:48pm
Quoting stewrigh
Is this what you mean Chris.....Does look tempting tho

Attachment
Yeah it does.....but I didn't want to wake up pissed off when it didn't behave, or someone in Belgium said something about Greece or a surprise transfer of Wesley Sneijder form Inter to NAC Breda in Holland surprises everyone so much that the Italian banking sector falls apart while I sleep.

All of these scenarios would absolutely screw me if I was long - I can tell.
  • #12,683
  • Jul 12, 2011 9:52pm Jul 12, 2011 9:52pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Shame, gold could be setting up for a short here.

Chris, it seems usd is making a bit of a comeback slowly. Could this send gold lower in itself?
HELL NO.

When gold is part of the fear trade - USD and gold goes up. It's about safety.

Gold is in a super cycle. There is absolutely no reason to short gold at all. I won't do it until we get back below $1,000 - and that's not happening in the next few years.

If the gold markets fall from here - it will only be an invitation to buy at a cheaper price. I think $1,475 looks very, very solid.......so I don't think it goes below there anytime soon.

You should never, never, ever short gold. In case I didn't make myself clear:

Don't F**KING short gold. Ever.

Be patient, these types of markets will give you a multitude of chances to go with the flow of the market if you are willing to wait....
  • #12,684
  • Jul 12, 2011 9:53pm Jul 12, 2011 9:53pm
Quoting VitaminBeer
Aussie vs the Yen @ 85ish looks good
Agreed. With the right candle, it could be pretty good.
  • #12,685
  • Jul 12, 2011 9:54pm Jul 12, 2011 9:54pm
Quoting stewrigh
Still not sure I believe this is really gonna happen - but does anyone have a view on what this'll do to the silver and gold market?

Gold and Silver Trading To Be Illegal Starting July 15, 2011
For what it is worth, I just read on Oanda's site that they are still offering gold and silver after that date. However - it's non-leveraged, which makes it basically pointless when you have futures contracts.....
  • #12,686
  • Jul 12, 2011 9:55pm Jul 12, 2011 9:55pm
Quoting stewrigh
Still not sure I believe this is really gonna happen - but does anyone have a view on what this'll do to the silver and gold market?
Nothing at all. Gold is quoted via the futures contracts and not the spot in the real world - so this won't change anything in the end.
  • #12,687
  • Jul 12, 2011 10:24pm Jul 12, 2011 10:24pm
Quoting clockwork71
Nothing at all. Gold is quoted via the futures contracts and not the spot in the real world - so this won't change anything in the end.
Do you know exactly why they are doing it - Is it to protect us poor traders or reduce volatility - seems so bloody pointless.
  • #12,688
  • Jul 12, 2011 10:29pm Jul 12, 2011 10:29pm
Quoting VitaminBeer
Aussie vs the Yen @ 85ish looks good
I think it looks even more interesting exactly where it is now.

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  • #12,689
  • Jul 12, 2011 11:18pm Jul 12, 2011 11:18pm
Quoting clockwork71
Nothing at all. Gold is quoted via the futures contracts and not the spot in the real world - so this won't change anything in the end.
Yep. Taking all the small-fry retailers out of the picture won't change a thing(price wise).
  • #12,690
  • Jul 12, 2011 11:59pm Jul 12, 2011 11:59pm
Quoting clockwork71
HELL NO.

When gold is part of the fear trade - USD and gold goes up. It's about safety.

Gold is in a super cycle. There is absolutely no reason to short gold at all. I won't do it until we get back below $1,000 - and that's not happening in the next few years.

If the gold markets fall from here - it will only be an invitation to buy at a cheaper price. I think $1,475 looks very, very solid.......so I don't think it goes below there anytime soon.

You should never, never, ever short gold. In case I didn't make myself clear:...
Right, got it now, thanks!
  • #12,691
  • Jul 13, 2011 6:32am Jul 13, 2011 6:32am
Quoting stewrigh
Do you know exactly why they are doing it - Is it to protect us poor traders or reduce volatility - seems so bloody pointless.

My suspicion is that somewhere behind all of this, there are an army of lobbyists. Some of them might even work for the futures exchanges.......and that means they will make more money. It's always about the money.
  • #12,692
  • Jul 14, 2011 6:00pm Jul 14, 2011 6:00pm
Tomorrow is the announcement of the made-up European banking stress test results. Keep your head down, because it will almost certainly throw the EUR around a lot.

Of course, call me a cynic - but I get the feeling the banks will be "fine". Of course, there might be a few sacrificial lambs.

Oh, and I did a new post on the blog.

Chris
  • #12,693
  • Jul 15, 2011 9:13am Jul 15, 2011 9:13am
Euro banking results out:

Looks like quite a few "barely passed", and the test didn't include a default. All I can say is that we have seen a "Euro Stress Test" before, and that we all know Europeans lie.

Need an example? Here you go:

Many years ago, some very brilliant Europeans were convinced that the world was flat. However, there was a very brave and intelligent Portuguese sailor named Columbus (And yes....I know that is his English name. And the city I am in happens to be named after him.) who decided that the world wasn't flat. He sailed west, and figured that the people he met were Indians.

My ancestors greeted him, and tried to explain to him that they had never heard of Calcutta or cricket, but he went home, and the Europeans have been calling us Indians all along, clearly lying for centuries.

That's enough to make me not trust anything they say.

Having said all of that - I think I just talked myself into going for some Vindaloo.....see you guys a little later. I might do a post on the blog later about this as well, but in all honesty - I think this is one of those things that when all of the information is dissected, it may not be as rosy as the pundits are trying to make it appear. I mean, it's just like the last one - unknown banks are failing.....and there very well could be ones that are nationalized in a few months. (a la Allied Irish)

I'm still short the USD/CAD - so this didn't really come into play for me.
  • #12,694
  • Jul 15, 2011 10:46am Jul 15, 2011 10:46am
Quoting stewrigh
Ludwell,

I hesitate to give you advice because I don't know where you entered or what timeframe you were trading or risk tolerance equity etc etc but .. you really shouldn't have been stopped out.

2 observations - EU is likely to raise rates this week - if they don't Euro will drop - if they do it'll probly still drop unless they raise more than 25bp. Wait till after the decision.

SNB stopped intervening last year when they lost a packet last time they tried.

Anyway you might wanna consider getting back in - after the news tho.

Attachment ...
Hope you got back in Ludwell.
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  • #12,695
  • Jul 15, 2011 11:34am Jul 15, 2011 11:34am
http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...07-15_1133.png
  • #12,696
  • Jul 15, 2011 3:22pm Jul 15, 2011 3:22pm
Quoting Low
http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...07-15_1133.png
Yeah.....I saw that.....but why don't I believe it???
  • #12,697
  • Jul 15, 2011 4:52pm Jul 15, 2011 4:52pm
Quoting clockwork71
Yeah.....I saw that.....but why don't I believe it???
Just because Europe's fcuked, doesn't mean exchange rates will confirm it.
  • #12,698
  • Jul 15, 2011 9:03pm Jul 15, 2011 9:03pm
Quoting Low
Just because Europe's fcuked, doesn't mean exchange rates will confirm it.
True.....the technical bit looks good - but I am leery of buying risk currencies right now. Of course, only time will tell.
  • #12,699
  • Jul 16, 2011 5:24am Jul 16, 2011 5:24am
Quoting stewrigh
Hope you got back in Ludwell.
No, your heads up was wasted on me! I got shaken so told myself to be cool and wait it out for a bit. Just watched that 800 pip nose dive. There'll be other opportunities.

Hope you locked in most of that move... oh ye who hath faith.

Do you think Jordan's comments yesterday will be enough to provoke another rally of optimism? And if so, who's gearing up to call his bluff?
  • #12,700
  • Jul 16, 2011 10:07am Jul 16, 2011 10:07am
When I look at the EUR/USD chart, I can't help but notice the big-ass flag that seems to be trying to form on the weekly chart. If triggered, this has the EUR going up 2,000 pips eventually. Of course, this flag isn't confirmed until the top of it is broken, but this kind of pattern in the middle of so much pessimism certainly has one thinking.

There are some things that could unleash this flag patter I suppose, but I have a hard time believing that the EU can pull it off. So the only other thing I can think of is that perhaps the market is suggesting that the debt ceiling talks in America never find a solution? I find that hard to believe too, as American politicians aren't exactly known for their bravery. A deal will be done in time, all of this going on at the moment is just drama.

Of course, the body of the flag could turn out to simply be a downward channel - which at the time makes more sense to me. Only time will tell, but until one of these get confirmed - count me out of this pair....
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