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AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #1,021
  • May 18, 2011 3:04am May 18, 2011 3:04am
Quoting Mike Haran
In May 1951 there was a top in the commodities markets, gold, silver, corn wheat,soyabeans all collapsed. We ar 60 years from that point and that is a Gann cycle. Now, silver tanked recently, gold is off its high and the AUDUSD looks like someone gave it a punch on the nose.

Is this the top, only time will tell. Should you be careful here, yes because even if the cycle is wrong, caution is a valid outlook in the markets, for me the AUD will have to prove it wants to go down, by doing it.

As look as it goes up its for buying.

Good trading...
Mike, but that was 2 cycles ago. If you look at commodity pricing over the last 200-300 years, the cycles generally last 14-26 years. The end of the last secular up swing in commodities ended around the 1979-1982 years. This bull began around 2000. If this is the end it will be the shortest secular swing in commodities.

When I look at fundamental data for say corn, the fundamentals do not match previous tops in corn. I think there is still a long way to go in this cycle.

Then take sugar for example. It is still 60% below its all time highs, nominally, and when we adjust for inflation, its very depressed. No bubbles end with prices still well below all time highs. They end with prices many multiples above previous highs.
  • #1,022
  • May 18, 2011 3:11am May 18, 2011 3:11am
aud is going up.. it hold a pretty good support ~ 1.0550 area, all long in aud, just hang in there....
There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #1,023
  • May 18, 2011 10:10am May 18, 2011 10:10am
My guess (IMHO):

-up to ~1.0711 (maybe just 1.0670)

then

-down to ~1.0400
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #1,024
  • May 18, 2011 12:38pm May 18, 2011 12:38pm
Quoting FX-Petra
added one lot long @ 0510 as per plan. Will close around 0600 area if given the chance. My 2 lots @ 0702 look like dogs right now, but I am earing good intrest on them. I will stay in them until 0440 is breached, or until we get abouve 0700. Good trades to all....

Regards,
Closed my 0510 long @ 0625. Still holding my 2 0702 long's. They have been open for over a week and have been drawing good intrest. Would be happy for any number above 0702 so I could close and just take that intrest money off the table. If so, that would make me flat AU, and for now that would be ok.

Regards,
  • #1,025
  • May 18, 2011 12:44pm May 18, 2011 12:44pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Closed my 0510 long @ 0625. Still holding my 2 0702 long's. They have been open for over a week and have been drawing good intrest. Would be happy for any number above 0702 so I could close and just take that intrest money off the table. If so, that would make me flat AU, and for now that would be ok.

Regards,
still in my 1.0585 long, sure takes a lot of patience pills.
Wouldn't be surprised commodity correction is over, so leave it for now....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #1,026
  • May 18, 2011 1:55pm May 18, 2011 1:55pm
Quoting VedantaTrade
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...ws_us_business

Australian Banks downgraded by Moody. I m surprised they are this early, they are usually late to the party, or end of the party. However, I have been looking At Oz banks balance sheets, credit side of the sheet is looking ominous. They will be in serious trouble with only a 5-6% deteriorating in asset quality.

They also rely on over seas funding, think, I hope no one is long AUDJPY.
Interest rates are already priced in and...

Possible answer to question about falling yield of US T - Bonds:

Greece:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ChartImg.axd greece 10 year yield.png Size: 24 KB

Yields surging and bond price going south, totally normal as investors have no trust into those bonds therfore demanding higher yields.
Not possible to print money therfore needs to raise money trough the EC.

US:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ChartImg.axd usd 10 year yield.png Size: 35 KB

Oops totally the opposite. Mmmhh strange ah yes the FED can print money till all the trees are gone from this planet.

Any T bonds bubble soon??

Cheers
  • #1,027
  • May 18, 2011 3:54pm May 18, 2011 3:54pm
1.0500 -1.0720 still contains and you can do what you want in between.

Many have tried to pre-empt and have been chopped to pieces.

As for Moody's well this article sums them up.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/27/ma...gewanted=print

Besides banks in Australia have been curtailing their lending and Australians have been saving and reducing debt.
So even if property takes a bath mortgage holders cant walk off and leave it to the banks like our American cousins can.They have an obligation so they will try and hold on to their piece of dirt hell or highwater.

The astute already know there is a problem with Australian economy being two tiered. Some business leaders have voiced concerns with raising interest rates.

As for my slightly bearish view If RBA raise rates it may tip economy over the edge..AUD up first then DOWN.. If RBA do nothing.. market has already somewhat factored in rate hike so AUD drifts Lower..If economy stalls lower rates.. AUD sold off hard...

But at the moment we focus on USA problem and China's growth.
  • #1,028
  • May 18, 2011 4:14pm May 18, 2011 4:14pm
let´s see if we´ll have a valid abcd/gartley here, hoping to short as soon as TL & 1.0650 reached
  • #1,029
  • May 18, 2011 4:14pm May 18, 2011 4:14pm
oops forgot chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd15m.gif Size: 50 KB
  • #1,030
  • May 18, 2011 6:58pm May 18, 2011 6:58pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Closed my 0510 long @ 0625. Still holding my 2 0702 long's. They have been open for over a week and have been drawing good intrest. Would be happy for any number above 0702 so I could close and just take that intrest money off the table. If so, that would make me flat AU, and for now that would be ok.

Regards,
mine at 1.0718 - looking for 1.0719 to TP.
  • #1,031
  • May 18, 2011 7:03pm May 18, 2011 7:03pm
Portfolio updates:

Still holding long @ 1.0718
Short term trading - closed 1.0608 TP 1.0650 (+42 pips)

Outlook:
As expected - Sp downgrade Aus 4 major banks but it is not the worse.
The just announced MI inflation expect was down to 3.3.
Based on all the recent negative indicator - An early rate hike's probability has down to less than 10%.

Aiming on NAB statement on 1.04 - which aussie will hit by Q3.
  • #1,032
  • May 18, 2011 7:23pm May 18, 2011 7:23pm
audusd pay very good interest swap rate, do you know any other pair that pays high in swap rate in there daily rollovers?
There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #1,033
  • May 18, 2011 7:26pm May 18, 2011 7:26pm
I think the Audie is going down; but I will try to buy the dips. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
With the Audie stalling and using Jade's good analysis, I just moved my 401k fund out of stocks and into a money market fund. The S&P looks like it is forming a rounded top. Summer is a bad time to be in stocks, especially September and October. "Go away the first of May; come back some November day."
  • #1,034
  • May 18, 2011 7:29pm May 18, 2011 7:29pm
Quoting bdsilvano
audusd pay very good interest swap rate, do you know any other pair that pays high in swap rate in there daily rollovers?
Short @ eur/aud and gbp/aud
  • #1,035
  • May 18, 2011 7:32pm May 18, 2011 7:32pm
Quoting jerrycollie
I think the Audie is going down; but I will try to buy the dips. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
With the Audie stalling and using Jade's good analysis, I just moved my 401k fund out of stocks and into a money market fund. The S&P looks like it is forming a rounded top. Summer is a bad time to be in stocks, especially September and October. "Go away the first of May; come back some November day."
no audusd is not going down, but it continues to rise....
There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #1,036
  • May 18, 2011 7:39pm May 18, 2011 7:39pm
Quoting bdsilvano
no audusd is not going down, but it continues to rise....
AUD/USD going nowhere until 1.0500 or 1.0720 breaks
They are the bookends of hard resistance..

I would rather let others chase the bus between the zone..
Paitence is the key
  • #1,037
  • May 18, 2011 7:58pm May 18, 2011 7:58pm
im still long @ my audusd, we are picking up some buyers now, i hope we could breach 1.08 area so long is confirm. anyway, the market move a little slow and we have to be patient for us to make money.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 82 KB
There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #1,038
  • May 18, 2011 8:21pm May 18, 2011 8:21pm
BDSilvano, what type of charts do you use and specifically the technicals on your charts.
  • #1,039
  • May 18, 2011 9:32pm May 18, 2011 9:32pm
Quoting WendyG
BDSilvano, what type of charts do you use and specifically the technicals on your charts.
im actually using multiple SMA from 5 - 200, i have color it so i can see it by levels, from 5 gold, 6 - 50 is green, 51 - 100 is white and 101 - 200 is red. i only use h4 and daily charts and i open multiple charts all at the same time based on USD pairs, EURO pairs and JPY pairs so that I would know what where are really the major trend are going into. also im using currency meter to check if my analization is correct. anyway here is my signal.

buying signal:
1. open h4 & daily chart and look if the price is above 200 SMA (or near in which better)
2. if the price hit some major SMA eg, like 50, 100 or 200 i would wait as this is the lines who usually will tell if the price will continue or will reverse.
3. i enter using m1 chart
4. usually i put the stop loss from the last 200 SMA as this is the most reliable dynamic stoploss in this strategy, price always play around in this area but seldom hitting it.
5. only buy on 100 - 200 SMA area.
6. exit when the the 5 sma cross at 50 sma green.

sell signal is the reverse instruction.
There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #1,040
  • May 18, 2011 9:34pm May 18, 2011 9:34pm
Unions representing workers in the resources, manufacturing, retail and services sectors are renewing efforts to negotiate five per cent wage increases, in a move that employers say will pressure inflation and interest rates, according to a report by the Australian Financial Review.
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