AUDUSD for informed traders | Page 42 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/AUD, AUD/USD

Similar Threads

Making an informed decision about the platform to go with 12 replies

AUDUSD Pattern 12 replies

25.000 AUDUSD position.. Value of roll over? 0 replies

AUDUSD 7 replies

Candlestick Chart Analysis - AUDUSD & USDCAD 1 reply

Attachments: AUDUSD for informed traders
Exit Attachments

AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #821
  • May 5, 2011 8:55pm May 5, 2011 8:55pm
Quoting lasty
To get what? stopped out later on
Ahh no mate, if i had been on early enough to see it had hit previous support around 1.0569, a short fib target at 1.0563 and 19.1 fib support at 1.0552 in nice confluence together and bounced, i would have been in for at least 100 to fib resistance around 1.0664 where it paused, or perhaps till 1.0687 previous resistance where it is now and may yet continue, so i would have been pretty happy with a 100+ pip trade actually.
  • #822
  • May 5, 2011 9:04pm May 5, 2011 9:04pm
Quoting Jazznos
Ahh no mate, if i had been on early enough to see it had hit previous support around 1.0569, a short fib target at 1.0563 and 19.1 fib support at 1.0552 in nice confluence together and bounced, i would have been in for at least 100 to fib resistance around 1.0664 where it paused, or perhaps till 1.0687 previous resistance where it is now and may yet continue, so i would have been pretty happy with a 100+ pip trade actually.
Yeah understood.. I think a few have tried to short it in the low 1.06's been stop and now the high 1.06er's are getting concerned.
Lets see... it could all end in tears today for some..
  • #823
  • May 5, 2011 9:12pm May 5, 2011 9:12pm
I saw a little green shoot; so I am long at 1.0667, hoping to afford another case of Alpo. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #824
  • May 5, 2011 9:13pm May 5, 2011 9:13pm
Yeah i figured you mustve thought i meant short.. no worries...

Id been waiting for the last few days for a bounce and then it happens and I frikken miss it... its killing me!

My long fib target on this swing is up around R1 a4 1.074 ish, which it may still get to, we'll see... Faltering a little now so... hit around a 50 from earlier and a 38.2 from down swing, so it could be as far as it goes, but will it continue bearish? I dont know... Seems like thats the mood a bit at present.
  • #825
  • May 5, 2011 11:24pm May 5, 2011 11:24pm
erm..
do note that the NAB target is a forecast and it is throughout the year..

There are still many uncertainty and unknown which we will not know what will happen in the future..and thus it serve as some position for certain traders but not all.

Portfolio:
Still holding my two Long -
1.0790
1.0478

We should see some up side of Aussie after the monetary statement report for a rate hike near Jun.
Unlike others - Citi cited that they see it as 2 rate hike possibilities - one in June/July and one in Q4.
  • #826
  • May 5, 2011 11:57pm May 5, 2011 11:57pm
Quoting evelee8
erm..
do note that the NAB target is a forecast and it is throughout the year..

There are still many uncertainty and unknown which we will not know what will happen in the future..and thus it serve as some position for certain traders but not all.

Portfolio:
Still holding my two Long -
1.0790
1.0478

We should see some up side of Aussie after the monetary statement report for a rate hike near Jun.
Unlike others - Citi cited that they see it as 2 rate hike possibilities - one in June/July and one in Q4.
He he he 2 rate hikes this year.
To be honest would not surprise me knowing past actions of present RBA puppets.
Having said that, once supposedly the RBA has raised rates twice my gut feeling is telling me that the rates will come down much faster and in bigger steps, some how we have witnessed this a few years ago.
Just look around down under and you realize that people are far from having a prosperous life in fact most are mortgage and credit card slaves depending desperately on a stable employment income. The other fascinating development is that one would think with a strong currency imported goods would be selling cheaper in shops but that is just not happening. Petrol on the pump is dearer today then a few years ago when the barrel price was at peak with the AUD below parity.

Cheers
  • #827
  • May 5, 2011 11:58pm May 5, 2011 11:58pm
Am currently short after that bounce (Yes. The one i missed. Grrr) but a little concerned it may be a mistake... we'll see...
  • #828
  • May 6, 2011 12:00am May 6, 2011 12:00am
Greetings fellow Melbournite!
  • #829
  • May 6, 2011 12:03am May 6, 2011 12:03am
Still medium-long term bullish but short-term with short position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5-5-2011 11-57-52 PM.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #830
  • May 6, 2011 12:03am May 6, 2011 12:03am
Quoting Jazznos
Greetings fellow Melbournite!
Same to you
  • #831
  • May 6, 2011 12:21am May 6, 2011 12:21am
Quoting Pipstrumpf
Same to you
Cheers...

Well i just bailed at a small loss... looking a bit strong to be just ebb and flow to me now... could go back long but we'll see...
  • #832
  • May 6, 2011 12:56am May 6, 2011 12:56am
I believe AUD/USD still has 200-300 pips south in shorth term before finally beginning to creep below parity, what exactly the RBA wants...
  • #833
  • May 6, 2011 12:59am May 6, 2011 12:59am
Here it goes. This is the first in many bull runs in the AUD.USD and AUD.CAD pairs. Its important to recognize that the RBC and RBA do not agree on the rate at which hikes should take place. More importantly the CAD is more closely tied to the USD and due to near term upside in the dollar, especially with Bernanke clearly indicated that although the money being reinvested from the asset purchasing programs will be used, the bank is beginning the process of winding down the easy money lifestyle it created in 2008. On the other side of the coin, In order to combat inflation of both commodities and assets (in particular real estate in Australia), the RBA will be forced to indirectly (some might argue very directly) intervene and allow its currency to appreciate. I am long the AUD pairs mentioned in this article. Just food for thought, if you look at 1week/30min bars on GC june 11 CL june 11 and both the aud.usd and aud.cad pairs youll see some correlations. Watch for those correlations to break in the near future when the AUD increases further and Gold and Oil continue their drop down.
  • #834
  • May 6, 2011 1:22am May 6, 2011 1:22am
I have 3 very astute tech heads all giving me different opinions.. 90 years experience between them.. No amateurs- Usually right on the money !!
Choice is very easy... slap each one around the head and dont put a trade on until next week.

Good luck if you have to punt !!
  • #835
  • May 6, 2011 2:47am May 6, 2011 2:47am
Quoting Pipstrumpf
He he he 2 rate hikes this year.
To be honest would not surprise me knowing past actions of present RBA puppets.
Having said that, once supposedly the RBA has raised rates twice my gut feeling is telling me that the rates will come down much faster and in bigger steps, some how ..

Cheers
Ya - after the rate hike - the aussie will go up for short term and falling down quickly on the negative news..
Aussie @ 1.09 ~ 1.10 is too expensive. This is not looking good and healthy to Aus.
In fact - if Aussie keep going up but not down .. this will be a serious problem up there in the country itself.
  • #836
  • May 6, 2011 2:52am May 6, 2011 2:52am
Looking for another Long entry @ 1.0550.

1-hour signal showing slightly bullish -

EMA5 EMA10 EMA20 EMA50 SMA100 SMA200
Value 1.0692 1.0677 1.0672 1.0715 1.0813 1.0833
Option - Buy Buy Buy Sell Sell Sell
  • #837
  • May 6, 2011 3:17am May 6, 2011 3:17am
Hmm perhaps this will persist short after all.. Maybe i bailed too early!

Re being bullish... We have gone past the 61.78 fib from last upswing and are heading toward the 50 which coincides with with daily Piv... if it cracks that then its probably on for young and old...
  • #838
  • Edited 4:19am May 6, 2011 3:54am | Edited 4:19am
2 levels to consider:

1.0513 = 38.2% fibo retracement of the whole rise from .97 to 1.1

1.0741 = current bearish trend line
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #839
  • May 6, 2011 3:25pm May 6, 2011 3:25pm
I closed my long of 1.0667 at 1.0709 for a gain of 42 pips. It bought me a few cans of Alpo. You realize you have to multiply the price of dog food by 7 to convert it into dog money. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #840
  • Edited 6:36pm May 6, 2011 6:25pm | Edited 6:36pm
The RBA note was written *prior* to commodities starting to crash. The real question is, what are the chances of the RBA actually increasing interest rates once commodity prices start going down? (a) A lot of inflation came from commodities and (b) the RBA was afraid of a mining boom. In fact with prices slumping and the AUD high, the mining and farming industry will probably join every other industry in Australia to publically whinge about the high AUD. Also with the housing bubble starting to burst (prices going down, volumes crashing and arrears rising) the chances of interest rates falling is higher. Also note that the RBA is known for slashing interest rates in a massive hurry.

On the bright side of things I sold my silver off this Monday. Good run over last three years, but in the last while it was seriously feeling like a bubble. That and with QE2 ending soon, made me think that now was the time to sell. The AUD feels like a bubble too. It has even become unmoored from its logical driver - commodities.
0 traders viewing now