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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #6,961
  • May 5, 2011 4:00am May 5, 2011 4:00am
Previous congestion zone plus 00 level in the market always good for potential resistance, coupled with a Lower High good sell signal....

Move stop down above most resistance resistance level +30 pips locked.
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  • #6,962
  • May 5, 2011 5:31am May 5, 2011 5:31am
Quoting Islander
Click on the paperclip and look 6 or 7 pages back to where I uploaded it - its called Stratman Mini or similar
cheers mate, got it

Dan
  • #6,963
  • May 5, 2011 8:39pm May 5, 2011 8:39pm
diviergence into the high of the asian session culminating in dcc pattern.
entry below __75 at 4570.
exit planned for 4550 but it just sped past to today's open at 4540 (magenta line).
so, exit at 4540.
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  • #6,964
  • May 6, 2011 12:00am May 6, 2011 12:00am
Happy NFP day! Today being extra cautious is the approach, but just because the market MAY be flat waiting for news doesn't mean it will be. I tend to watch EJ primarily on NFP day and it has paid off well so far.

FO long was a gimme. HL with engulfing bar at minor resistance becoming support. Target here is DP/50ish area. Once we got up there you can see the bigger volume on the big green bar over DP/50 (blue line). This is a heads up that sellers could be coming in so be ready to get out during this time of day that loves to reverse. When the next doji closes, we are now setting up for an evening star pattern. Given the PA, volume and divergence (far more visible on EU which I was watching as well) it's time to get out for 20+.

Then short below DP on the completed evening star for a mid-FH turn. Felt way more confident in this thanks to that EU divergence I mentioned, but took EJ because EU engulfing bar didn't really have a level around I liked (was the top of Asia though). Was hoping to hold until LO and hopefully 117.00 (battle-line). Again, big volume came in and we had a LARGE M1 marubozu. I gave that marubozu three minutes or so to follow through but it failed so I was out. Price did come down once more after but the increased volume proved to be true for now, and buyers rejected it again. Now I'll wait to see if LO brings some LHs because I still think that 117.00 may be in play. TWT.

A nice 40+ pips to start a NFP day really helps take the edge off. I'll admit, there used to be time when I hated NFP day and avoided it like the plague. Now I just watch the market and let it tell me if I should be playing or not.
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  • #6,965
  • May 6, 2011 12:16am May 6, 2011 12:16am
And price forms a nice LH plainly visible on the M1 chart and swiftly heads down to 117.00 as planned. Orders entering the market at that level as expected, so no messing around on NFP day and just banked the pips. Could push through with the strength of that move but I'll bank whatever I can (in true Mrs. V fashion ) today.
  • #6,966
  • May 6, 2011 12:39am May 6, 2011 12:39am
Great trading Auron. Reminder to self - NFP days get up early FO get a trade or two relax for rest of day!!
  • #6,967
  • May 6, 2011 12:40am May 6, 2011 12:40am
Quoting Auron112
Happy NFP day! Today being extra cautious is the approach, but just because the market MAY be flat waiting for news doesn't mean it will be. I tend to watch EJ primarily on NFP day and it has paid off well so far.

FO long was a gimme. HL with engulfing bar at minor resistance becoming support. Target here is DP/50ish area. Once we got up there you can see the bigger volume on the big green bar over DP/50 (blue line). This is a heads up that sellers could be coming in so be ready to get out during this time of day that loves to reverse. When the...

Nicely done http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif........and your detailed comments remind me of another poster - I wonder who.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

€ itself had a veritable plethora of candle signals this morning and the updating S&R levels from mid April plus CII were rather helpfull too http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,968
  • May 6, 2011 12:43am May 6, 2011 12:43am
Was doing these pics for eur level in particular as supp areas clear. COT shows big dogs still long eur/gu and was this push down yesterday just something they couldn't control on the day but giving them reason to buy lower. TWT.
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  • #6,969
  • May 6, 2011 12:47am May 6, 2011 12:47am
Quoting Islander
Nicely done http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif........and your detailed comments remind me of another poster - I wonder who.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

€ itself had a veritable plethora of candle signals this morning and the updating S&R levels from mid April plus CII were rather helpfull too http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
We can now add #8 as a UH vol bullish engulfing on the 5m, more easily seen as a 1 min marubozo that evolved into a harami off the MS1 / xx25 confluence....will this break the earlier resistance and set us up for a fibonacci retrace of yesterdays fall......TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,970
  • May 6, 2011 7:31am May 6, 2011 7:31am
Quoting Islander
Nicely done http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif........and your detailed comments remind me of another poster - I wonder who.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

€ itself had a veritable plethora of candle signals this morning and the updating S&R levels from mid April plus CII were rather helpfull too http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Islander,

re. lower support zone that you have drawn around 4530:
I scrolled back but couldn't find the source location.
where is it coming from -- TF. date ?

thanks.
  • #6,971
  • May 6, 2011 6:21pm May 6, 2011 6:21pm
Quoting pgd
Islander,

re. lower support zone that you have drawn around 4530:
I scrolled back but couldn't find the source location.
where is it coming from -- TF. date ?

thanks.
Not to answer for Islander, but I had the same zones on my higher time-frame charts and this was how I saw them. I try to be careful not to mark off too many possible zones by just sticking to the ones that get obvious reactions a number of times. These were fairly clear areas that had defined a good amount of the range trading before things continued their upward march in late April. Also note that both were used as support AND resistance. While not vital, it does add extra weight to those zones in my long term analysis.
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  • #6,972
  • May 6, 2011 11:38pm May 6, 2011 11:38pm
Quoting Auron112
Not to answer for Islander, but I had the same zones on my higher time-frame charts and this was how I saw them. I try to be careful not to mark off too many possible zones by just sticking to the ones that get obvious reactions a number of times. These were fairly clear areas that had defined a good amount of the range trading before things continued their upward march in late April. Also note that both were used as support AND resistance. While not vital, it does add extra weight to those zones in my long term analysis.
Thanks, Auron.

that was helpful.

cheers.
  • #6,973
  • May 8, 2011 11:28pm May 8, 2011 11:28pm
Quoting Auron112
Not to answer for Islander, but I had the same zones on my higher time-frame charts and this was how I saw them. I try to be careful not to mark off too many possible zones by just sticking to the ones that get obvious reactions a number of times. These were fairly clear areas that had defined a good amount of the range trading before things continued their upward march in late April. Also note that both were used as support AND resistance. While not vital, it does add extra weight to those zones in my long term analysis.

Thanks Auron, I couldn't have said it better http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

I draw these as areas/bands of S&R from a tuition session I had in the 90s with Tom Williams, where he described S&R levels as like a hedge accross a field, not just a rail / pole that the horse has to jump, so off my 15m / 60m charts I had the 4520 area as resistance on Apr 12, then the 4530 area as support on April 21,22 & 25

I watch them on the higher TFs and then put them onto my 5m when appropriate.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,974
  • Edited May 9, 2011 1:40am May 8, 2011 11:59pm | Edited May 9, 2011 1:40am
After Fridays big fall - into another level http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif - this morning we've had at #1 a low vol test of demand followed later at #2 by a higher vol selling climax - i.e. more buyers coming in, then a HL at #3 in a typical pre FO fakeout that led to a 50+ pip bounce up to the resistance area.

For the nimble - aka readers of my old thread with Medici - a mid FH sell also put more pips in the bank.......now for LO........
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,975
  • May 9, 2011 12:13am May 9, 2011 12:13am
Detail of clear doubles at Ls & H.....swings so far, up ~50, down ~40 up 30 and still going.......
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,976
  • May 9, 2011 1:09am May 9, 2011 1:09am
Morning, folks....

Nice simple start to the week. No MA's this time, just pure price action at the pivots. A good pull-back to the pivot, ending with a long lower shadow candle, giving confidence of a significant northward direction. Maybe I'm a bit premature getting out, but TWT. Pips in the bank and that's what counts!
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  • #6,977
  • May 9, 2011 1:50am May 9, 2011 1:50am
Quoting Islander
After Fridays big fall - into another level http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif - this morning we've had at #1 a low vol test of demand followed later at #2 by a higher vol selling climax - i.e. more buyers coming in, then a HL at #3 in a typical pre FO fakeout that led to a 50+ pip bounce up to the resistance area.

For the nimble - aka readers of my old thread with Medici - a mid FH sell also put more pips in the bank.......now for LO........
Indeed, as readers of that illustrious thread know, after a 600 pip fall in two days and then persistent buying during the Asian session, the pattern for the morning is "down-to-pick-up-demand-and-then-up". All too predictable

Consequently, I didn't take the first short, but the second one marked the end of the upmove, so I took it for about 20. Now a little break.

And as usual, CI was a reliable companion throughout
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  • #6,978
  • May 9, 2011 2:11am May 9, 2011 2:11am
Quoting medici
Indeed, as readers of that illustrious thread know, after a 600 pip fall in two days and then persistent buying during the Asian session, the pattern for the morning is "down-to-pick-up-demand-and-then-up". All too predictable

Consequently, I didn't take the first short, but the second one marked the end of the upmove, so I took it for about 20. Now a little break.

And as usual, CI was a reliable companion throughout
GM M - as usual, we were both looking for and making similar trades http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

I had a minor resistance level on my 15m that I didnt transfer earlier and its nice to see how it was respected......

The PA as shown by wider ranged candles that failed to follow on into a breakout were a great heads up - together with 5m CII and a high climatic 5m volume in the last attempt http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

As you say, time for a break, I'll be back for the early US session to see what ideas the US traders have.....so far we've seen close to a 50% retrace of Fridays range.....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,979
  • May 9, 2011 5:55am May 9, 2011 5:55am
Quoting Islander
GM M - as usual, we were both looking for and making similar trades http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

I had a minor resistance level on my 15m that I didnt transfer earlier and its nice to see how it was respected......

The PA as shown by wider ranged candles that failed to follow on into a breakout were a great heads up - together with 5m CII and a high climatic 5m volume in the last attempt http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

As you say, time for a break, I'll be back for the early...
[b]I'll be back for the early US session to see what ideas the US traders have.....

NY Open was just above the 4400 level at todays DP and a few minutes late the sell off continued.....I'm look for a drop towards Fridays low also MS 1 at 4310.....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,980
  • May 9, 2011 8:01am May 9, 2011 8:01am
Another nice retrace trade. This one after price dipped below the mid-point level, retraced above it, and then started dropping again. A text-book pivot trade.
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