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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #5,761
  • May 3, 2011 12:40pm May 3, 2011 12:40pm
Quoting ruffryders
PA @ 1518-1521 is the key now, any strong reversal signal will indicate upside capped by 1545-1555, however PA sliding through 1518-1521 indicates that 1476 is unlocked. If we do reverse at 1518-1521 need to look for upwards sloping fork ML support becoming resistance and initiate shorts upon confirmation. PA on silver indicates further downside for today capped at 37.90, which just happens to be a strong 50 fibo level from the latest swing.

Meanwhile EW indicates 108 as downside target on light crude oil june futures, currently trading at 110.88,...
which fork are you referring to? also i assume EW is elliot wave.....

beeb
  • #5,762
  • May 3, 2011 1:00pm May 3, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting fontu
Gold stalled & bought again to see if retracement be over & silver waiting down 42 for the same again .
fontu


intervention & another spike down perhgaps , anyway 1534 should any bad either to keep though risky & early take before 1518 . closed long & wait again .
Took this time silver at tl & gold at bottom with d bottom but closed again as in both 1 more leg down possible again , anyway pending placed over 1518 to see in gold & silver pending activated tl perhaps cool & kept active.
just information & if any correction may suggested by any here .intervention possibly ending soon .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #5,763
  • May 3, 2011 1:45pm May 3, 2011 1:45pm
Quoting XTrade
Don't you GET IT YET.

WHY oh WHY of ALL f-ing days would you short GOLD when the chairman of the FEDERAL RESERVE is on TV talking about INFLATION rising and things "moving slowly"

Yes trading can be simple once you hear those words you click

BUY x3 and sit back and watch.
Today was a GIFT.

I have stated it time and time again....
Now you see the he/she GOT IT among many other people and this is exactly "WHY oh WHY of ALL f-ing days would someone short GOLD".

A $55 correction/reversal/pull back/sell off/etc is not a small by any standards especially if you consider the GOLD is bulish, the FEDERAL RESERVE is on TV talking about INFLATION rising and things "moving slowly" and so forth.

The message here is, GOLD is like everything else: you COULD ride both ways and make profit...
  • #5,764
  • May 3, 2011 1:51pm May 3, 2011 1:51pm
managing your risk > potential profit (greed)
The problem was that people were asking "Can/should I short gold now?" as soon as a new 5min top was in place.
  • #5,765
  • May 3, 2011 2:11pm May 3, 2011 2:11pm
Quoting 4cc
managing your risk > potential profit (greed)
The problem was that people were asking "Can/should I short gold now?" as soon as a new 5min top was in place.
Right, but most experienced people know the 5 min charts are almost worthless unless you put it together with other timeframes. And if a newbie is even BUYING gold based on only what people say on forums, he is still taking a risk.

My point was: saying nobody should short gold is WRONG.
  • #5,766
  • May 3, 2011 2:25pm May 3, 2011 2:25pm
Just throwing a thought out there...

I think another bullish move is in the works, but first...

Per the attached chart: If price moves up and tests the teal L-MLH shown by the red arrow, and finds resistance, then the blue HL/WL (warning line) area around 1523.97 could be the next stop. From there (if price goes there) we can see if another bullish setup appears.

Fwiw...

FX4
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #5,767
  • May 3, 2011 2:41pm May 3, 2011 2:41pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Just throwing a thought out there...

I think another bullish move is in the works, but first...

Per the attached chart: If price moves up and tests the teal L-MLH shown by the red arrow, and finds resistance, then the blue HL/WL (warning line) area around 1523.97 could be the next stop. From there (if price goes there) we can see if another bullish setup appears.

Fwiw...

FX4

looking good FX4 but beware one of the vagaries of the PM market......NFP is out on friday and is a notorious time for PM spikes and stop hunting......

beeb
  • #5,768
  • Edited 6:41pm May 3, 2011 3:19pm | Edited 6:41pm
Quoting beeb
looking good FX4 but beware one of the vagaries of the PM market......NFP is out on friday and is a notorious time for PM spikes and stop hunting......

beeb
Thanks. That is one of the things I am trying to get used to is the volatility. There will be other factors I am sure. Will be interesting to have a front row seat and watch gold on NFP.

Take care,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #5,769
  • May 3, 2011 5:20pm May 3, 2011 5:20pm
Silver had much greater volume (as expected) today than Gold. Might be shaking out weak hands so it can stick with gold once uptrend resumes.
  • #5,770
  • May 3, 2011 5:26pm May 3, 2011 5:26pm
My thoughts exactly. Silver is a small, tight & volatile market. Great for experienced traders, but not for young guys like myself. Gold is taking a hit along with silver, but should resume the up trend shortly.

Levels? I am thinking get long around 1518-1523 PA, any thoughts? We have seen 'nominal' highs, but no where near 'real' highs, which put us well over $1800 an ounce for gold. No fundamental reason why the USD would strenghten, other than a short term 'safe haven' trade.

Thanks to all the experienced guys/gals out there taking the time to post! Newbs can/should be learning a lot from this thread!
  • #5,771
  • May 3, 2011 6:14pm May 3, 2011 6:14pm
1514-1515 area although it really depends on how it reacts if/when it gets there.

and

40.86-41.70 area for silver.
  • #5,772
  • May 3, 2011 6:18pm May 3, 2011 6:18pm
Quoting PhilaTr8er
My thoughts exactly. Silver is a small, tight & volatile market. Great for experienced traders, but not for young guys like myself. Gold is taking a hit along with silver, but should resume the up trend shortly.

Levels? I am thinking get long around 1518-1523 PA, any thoughts? We have seen 'nominal' highs, but no where near 'real' highs, which put us well over $1800 an ounce for gold. No fundamental reason why the USD would strenghten, other than a short term 'safe haven' trade.

Thanks to all the experienced guys/gals out there taking the...
$1800 or $2000 or $1450, markets will decide on the price. Personally I don't think we will see $1800 before December or next March. $1600-1700 seems to be a reasonable top for this year.
  • #5,773
  • May 3, 2011 6:29pm May 3, 2011 6:29pm
Quoting Fmfx
$1800 or $2000 or $1450, markets will decide on the price. Personally I don't think we will see $1800 before December or next March. $1600-1700 seems to be a reasonable top for this year.

Agreed. I nor anyone can call tops or bottoms. I am attempting to latch onto a long term trend and ride until it breaks down. It's a beautiful thing when fundamentals, technicals & momentum all point to one direction; for now at least. I am well versed in the former of the three, but am new to the latter two.

Any tips/quidance as to what technicals work best for gold would be greatly appreicated. If anyone has an interest in fundamentals, shout out a question. I am no Ben Bernak, but do have a decent Economics/Finance education. Thanks.
  • #5,774
  • May 3, 2011 6:44pm May 3, 2011 6:44pm
Quoting PhilaTr8er
Agreed. I nor anyone can call tops or bottoms. I am attempting to latch onto a long term trend and ride until it breaks down. It's a beautiful thing when fundamentals, technicals & momentum all point to one direction; for now at least. I am well versed in the former of the three, but am new to the latter two.

Any tips/quidance as to what technicals work best for gold would be greatly appreicated. If anyone has an interest in fundamentals, shout out a question. I am no Ben Bernak, but do have a decent Economics/Finance education. Thanks.

So, are you saying that gold broke down right now and we are in a bearish trend? Or what exactly do you mean?
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #5,775
  • May 3, 2011 7:01pm May 3, 2011 7:01pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
So, are you saying that gold broke down right now and we are in a bearish trend? Or what exactly do you mean?

I got short last night around the 1550-1555 area. A pull back is a bit overdue and somewhat healthy for a long term trend to stay in place. I am looking to get long again around the 1518-1523 level.

Long term trend is of course UP, just playing a short term reversal. I am still a bit new to shorter term trading, so would be interested in learning/hearing from experienced folks. I've been long gold since the 900 levels, for fundamental, economic & political reasons. I am riding the trend until it is no more; just interested in learning the scalping/swing game along the way.
  • #5,776
  • May 3, 2011 8:52pm May 3, 2011 8:52pm
Quoting PhilaTr8er
I got short last night around the 1550-1555 area....
Interesting: A Long Term Trader asking for input from Short Term observers.
Are you saying you Started Trading LT Trades and never cut your teeth on ST Trades?
Can you describe, or post, your LT Method?

Long from $900 & getting antsy with this tiny micro break after busting (& Holding) a break of $1,500... $600.00 Profit/... that you decide to Flip & reverse for a Potential $30.00 . Why?
What Fundamentals?
(The biggest undiscovered {by the masses} Annual Gold Push will be here before September)

Or is this a Tech Trade?
Can you show me?

B
  • #5,777
  • Edited 9:29pm May 3, 2011 9:13pm | Edited 9:29pm
Quoting Bemac
Interesting: A Long Term Trader asking for input from Short Term observers.
Are you saying you Started Trading LT Trades and never cut your teeth on ST Trades?
Can you describe, or post, your LT Method?

Long from $900 & getting antsy with this tiny micro break after busting (& Holding) a break of $1,500... $600.00 Profit/... that you decide to Flip & reverse for a Potential $30.00 . Why?
What Fundamentals?
(The biggest undiscovered {by the masses} Annual Gold Push will be here before September)

Or is this a Tech Trade?
Can you show me?

B
if one was watching the daily trend that would be the price to look for direction (1548 area), also if your looking long term such as from a yearly chart (1551) was also an area to keep an eye on for direction.
I was looking at the same thing for a scalp.
  • #5,778
  • May 3, 2011 9:43pm May 3, 2011 9:43pm
Scalping is fine if you want to plu retraces. Hope you
Quoting lilpip
if one was watching the daily trend that would be the price to look for direction (1548 area), also if your looking long term such as from a yearly chart (1551) was also an area to keep an eye on for direction.
I was looking at the same thing for a scalp.
Nope. I dont buy (Sell) either of those Prices.

Scalping is fine if you want to play retraces. I used to play the 15Min S&P Futures. For a Fund.

...
  • #5,779
  • May 3, 2011 11:11pm May 3, 2011 11:11pm
Two forks for Ag.

I expect further fall downto 36.5 after last break confirmation at 42.5
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  • #5,780
  • May 3, 2011 11:22pm May 3, 2011 11:22pm
Quoting fawaol
Two forks for Ag.

I expect further fall downto 36.5 after break confirmation at 42.5
Or as some predict, 23 area...

It is getting closer to the summer and everyone knows a BIG USD reversal is around the corner. So experienced traders are looking to book profits, if they have not done so...

Silver, oil, AUD, gold and rest will follow. Hard not to see major change is coming. It has in the past...
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Nayimboy