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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #2,201
  • Apr 28, 2011 10:55am Apr 28, 2011 10:55am
Quoting tgwhbb
yep, thought price may go back to around 4800 due to the anomaly in the profile, it may still do so, but the rejection at IBH i think is a better place, i'm back in long at 4818.

agree with you, very happy to have found AMT and VSA! While not perfect, i'm starting to believe I can read charts!

anomaly marked on the chart
still working on the anomaly? price may need to hang around the 4800-4820 area to build it out some more...long at 4800.

EDIT: closed long at 4820, done for the day.
Attached Image
Change is the only constant
  • #2,202
  • Apr 28, 2011 11:05am Apr 28, 2011 11:05am
Quoting mzvega
I was thinking the same thing too if I was trading today. Its also NY session dibl , and va's. But I would have took the trade.
interesting how the weekly IBH coincides with the weekly VAH...maybe that area is a better target for early next week? So move up to weekly DIBH by tomorrow, then back down to weekly VAH early next week for test and continuation to 1.5? Just a thought.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,203
  • Apr 28, 2011 11:07am Apr 28, 2011 11:07am
Quoting mzvega
Using Tgwhbb's indi Ive thought this asia opened wide range above average vol. It extended its range to the asia dibh. London @average range higher vol. range ex to @ dibl area, Us above avg range , above avg. vol, I would think it would needs extentend somewhere. any thought or interpretations? But also no range extention means no comm participation.
re the Asia IB, wide range but with increased volume. Tells me the move was genuine. If it had that range on lower volume, then more likely a trap? today looks like a balance/normal day
Change is the only constant
  • #2,204
  • Edited 4:53pm Apr 28, 2011 4:38pm | Edited 4:53pm
I wanted to share a MP article.
"What does "Market Profile" say about the present market environment",

It has the quarterly profiles of a market going back to the rise and fall of the 1929 stock market to the @1989 & present day profile, he shows "how crystal clear that auction market principles were at work in the markets of the late 1920's through the markets of the Great Depression, during the early stages of the United States involvement in WWII, in the severe economic contraction in the 1970's and before, during and after the 1987 market crash"
I thought it was a good read, real good charts

http://www.traderkingdom.com/trading...et-environment
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,205
  • Apr 28, 2011 5:19pm Apr 28, 2011 5:19pm
Quoting tgwhbb
still working on the anomaly? price may need to hang around the 4800-4820 area to build it out some more...long at 4800.

EDIT: closed long at 4820, done for the day.
out too early again, could have held for the POC once price was accepted back into value...oh well, still positive today and the week...but really need to work on holding winning trades longer...any suggestions based on profiles??
Change is the only constant
  • #2,206
  • Edited 6:04pm Apr 28, 2011 5:46pm | Edited 6:04pm
Quoting tgwhbb
out too early again, could have held for the POC once price was accepted back into value...oh well, still positive today and the week...but really need to work on holding winning trades longer...any suggestions based on profiles??
This is my opinion and mind you its in "hindsight", because at that time I had a bearish view.(quiet as its kept, I always see "Bears", even when they're not really there) if I understand correctly, when you placed the trade, we just bounce off the daily open to the up side, that was a plus +, just rejected the ny ib low, to the up side +, I treat the IB like it was, or imo the value area for that session, just like basic text book, range extention out of value comm interest. so I feel if Im treating the IB as a value area, general consensus a return to va (IB) it goes to the other side. Same basic MP rules just condensed, for the session. I wouldnt ignore the 24h profile data, just used in the context of the larger (24h profile).
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,207
  • Apr 29, 2011 6:06am Apr 29, 2011 6:06am
so, it appears tokyo and london were not able to pull value higher today after balancing yesterday. lokos like the weekly DIBH may be out of reach for today? If that's the case we may see a dip to 4670 area, the last naked POC. I'm on the sidelines for today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU TPO D 2011-04-29 at 8.55.45 AM.png Size: 94 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #2,208
  • Apr 29, 2011 6:19am Apr 29, 2011 6:19am
Agree with your view. Would you wait for the US IB to build before positioning yourself, or already short?

Quoting tgwhbb
so, it appears tokyo and london were not able to pull value higher today after balancing yesterday. lokos like the weekly DIBH may be out of reach for today? If that's the case we may see a dip to 4670 area, the last naked POC. I'm on the sidelines for today.
  • #2,209
  • Edited 6:40am Apr 29, 2011 6:25am | Edited 6:40am
Quoting Oxford
Agree with your view. Would you wait for the US IB to build before positioning yourself, or already short?
told myself to short it at the fakeout up move just before NY IB, but i have a hard time shorting EU given all the strength...so on the sidelines. will likely be so till sunday/monday

EDIT: would have, should have! if i had shorted it at 4870 like i was thinking, i'd be +40 right now...i really need to get over the mental block of counter trend trading since it was so clear with MP and VSA!!

Still 2.5% for this 4 day week. no complaints here.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,210
  • Apr 29, 2011 6:44am Apr 29, 2011 6:44am
Just tried a short but somewhat too early for the long run downwards I guess. But what makes me curious is the high volume at today's top, much higher than yesterday, even if LO is closed!

EDIT: just oversaw that yesterdays high was made during Asia session.

Quoting tgwhbb
told myself to short it at the fakeout up move just before NY IB, but i have a hard time shorting EU given all the strength...so on the sidelines. will likely be so till sunday/monday

EDIT: would have, should have! if i had shorted it at 4870 like i was thinking, i'd be +40 right now...i really need to get over the mental block of counter trend trading since it was so clear with MP and VSA!!

Still 2.5% for this 4 day week. no complaints here.
  • #2,211
  • Apr 29, 2011 6:48am Apr 29, 2011 6:48am
MP: Can you point out why/where. Don't see the MP setup as I'm quite new.
Quoting tgwhbb
...d have! if i had shorted it at 4870 like i was thinking, i'd be +40 right now...i really need to get over the mental block of counter trend trading since it was so clear with MP and VSA!!.
Great results bud! Doing this every week makes a lot of money!
Quoting tgwhbb
...Still 2.5% for this 4 day week. no complaints here.
  • #2,212
  • Apr 29, 2011 6:53am Apr 29, 2011 6:53am
Quoting Oxford
Just tried a short but somewhat too early for the long run downwards I guess. But what makes me curious is the high volume at today's top, much higher than yesterday, even if LO is closed!

EDIT: just oversaw that yesterdays high was made during Asia session.
thanks for pointing out LO is closed. was wondering why my volumes were so low today...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,213
  • Apr 29, 2011 7:02am Apr 29, 2011 7:02am
Quoting Oxford
MP: Can you point out why/where. Don't see the MP setup as I'm quite new.
a couple of factors, see chart. But main thing for me is that MP doesn't necessarily give you the entry setup, but more the levels and underlying interpretation of the market.

That coupled with the decreasing volume on the M15 up into the previous high just before NY open. VSA gave the setup, MP gave the direction in this case.

as stated though, i still can't bring myself to short in an uptrend...mental block!

hope that helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU TPO D 2011-04-29 at 8.55.45 AM.png Size: 108 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #2,214
  • Apr 29, 2011 7:12am Apr 29, 2011 7:12am
strong volume's back at the POC keeping the price up...quite interesting...still watching...
Change is the only constant
  • #2,215
  • Edited 7:28am Apr 29, 2011 7:15am | Edited 7:28am
I make 3 open buy because form my analysis DVA still High OL it means buyer still have conviction, i look DPOC is the same place with yesterday POC imo it makes strong support, please give correction on my analysis, Thank you
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu interbank2.gif Size: 49 KB
  • #2,216
  • Apr 29, 2011 7:28am Apr 29, 2011 7:28am
Quoting bila
I make 2 open buy because form my analysis DVA still High OL it means buyer still have conviction, i look DPOC is the same place with yesterday POC imo it makes strong support, please give correction on my analysis, Thank you
not sure about the buyer conviction due to the overlapping VAs, but indeed the POCs are providing good support. IMO if conviction was for the buyer, VA should be higher.
Change is the only constant
  • #2,217
  • Apr 29, 2011 7:37am Apr 29, 2011 7:37am
Quoting tgwhbb
not sure about the buyer conviction due to the overlapping VAs, but indeed the POCs are providing good support. IMO if conviction was for the buyer, VA should be higher.
Thank you for your response and correction T, i will make a note, so i will learn from it.
  • #2,218
  • Edited 7:47am Apr 29, 2011 7:37am | Edited 7:47am
It is difficult (Scary) taking advantage of the the overnight squeeze but if you go back in time with the charts youll see 9 times out of 10 it holds true. In case of today at the US open london was long. I always think if I was trading the previous session where would my logical stop be? imo where comm traders started driving prices for range extention. That place got squeezed to and look at that large green candle imo stops hit.

I wanted to mentioned that we are also inside the monthly value area.
edit: if we close inside that monthly va, the new month will open inside previous month va balance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: on11.jpg Size: 130 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,219
  • Apr 29, 2011 7:55am Apr 29, 2011 7:55am
Also, I wanted to share an observation. The sessions open usually mark the high or low of the session. So on the open I try to decide if it will be the high or the loww for the session. But if you mark the opens youll see, that observation holds true, the majority of the time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: opens.jpg Size: 84 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,220
  • Apr 29, 2011 7:55am Apr 29, 2011 7:55am
Quoting mzvega
It is difficult (Scary) taking advantage of the the overnight squeeze but if you go back in time with the charts youll see 9 times out of 10 it holds true. In case of today at the US open london was long. I always think if I was trading the previous session where would my logical stop be? imo where comm traders started driving prices for range extention. That place got squeezed to and look at that large green candle imo stops hit.

I wanted to mentioned that we are also inside the monthly value area.
edit: if we close inside that monthly va,...
i think you mean inside the weekly VA...at last that is the chart you are showing. for monthly, we are above VAH @4650. So in theory EU will close april above VAH making a nice downside target for May.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU TPO M 2011-04-29 at 10.51.37 AM.png Size: 85 KB
Change is the only constant
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