Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected | Page 345 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected
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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #6,881
  • Apr 18, 2011 11:43pm Apr 18, 2011 11:43pm
Quoting Auron112
First trade today. Nice M5 div following the earlier harami with a nice engulfing pattern developing that broke the trendline. Would have been better if it pushed up to the T Open, but given the PA it was still a nice short. I was hoping to hold into the 4200/MS1/Weekly S3 (4199) confluence but since it's FH I banked pips once the M5 candle failed to close below support and we started to push up.

Also a nice M1 LH right at FO for some easy pips if you weren't feeling as aggressive as I was.

Edit: Oops, messed up the picture a bit. I used the...

Nice one http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

The rising volume MA - set to 5 - warned that this drop could be expected to turn, so it was an easy buy off the earlier low support - or wait for the 1 min HL.....exit around the earlier high at the DOpen level.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,882
  • Apr 18, 2011 11:47pm Apr 18, 2011 11:47pm
Quoting Islander
Nice one http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

The rising volume MA - set to 5 - warned that this drop could be expected to turn, so it was an easy buy off the earlier low support - or wait for the 1 min HL.....exit around the earlier high at the DOpen level.....
Yes, good point. The climax low that formed and failed to follow through was a good sign that the buyers were coming in. Certainly not a surprise considering the level, and part of why I got out so early in the bounce. Didn't reverse immediately but did hit part of the HL you mentioned, but a bit late due to posting.
  • #6,883
  • Apr 19, 2011 12:47am Apr 19, 2011 12:47am
Both put in HLs after LO....€ at its 4225 SS and Gu at its Asian Low of 6236 - both also on low 5m vol http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif.

Following on the 1 min chart, the wide ranged marubozos at 09:37 CET alerted me to trail my stop to 1/3 - 1/2 of the candle in case it was going to be a mini exhaustion type - i.e. not follow thru........neither did, so I was closed out for some nice pips....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

Edit: Gu actually held at its overnight high, the W M2 at 6270, whilst € has broken up its S&R level ~4250....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,884
  • Apr 19, 2011 1:30am Apr 19, 2011 1:30am
GJ appears to be making Lower Highs intraday, shorting it is probably a good idea I would suggest with stops above the 35 level.
  • #6,885
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:45am Apr 19, 2011 4:45am
Just got home and I'm almost heading out again, so no trading for me today, but somebody please tell me they just went long on the bullish wedge/flag breakout (bouncing off of the daily pivot to boot) on euro and made some easy $$$...

Attachment
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #6,886
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:46am Apr 19, 2011 4:46am
Just got home and I'm almost heading out again, so no trading for me today, but somebody please tell me they just went long on the bullish wedge/flag breakout (bouncing off of the daily pivot to boot) on euro and made some easy $$$...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.gif Size: 53 KB
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #6,887
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:20am Apr 19, 2011 5:20am
Mrs V took this hl move up from D pivot/50 psych level. Exited a bit early but whats new there!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #6,888
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:04am Apr 20, 2011 1:04am
A trade I entered into just before FO. Simple pattern trade with a momentum breakout above R1 and with trend. Due to the M15/H1 charts, I'm looking to hold this so I'm just using a combination of the MAs and M1 chart to trail my stop. Have some decent pips already locked in but I'll take the option to potentially exit at R2 if the PA/volume tells me to. The current stop is fairly tight given CII so I'll be happy to be taken out by a decent fall back down as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-april19.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #6,889
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:45am Apr 20, 2011 1:45am
Quick follow-up to the trade. Here is the completed chart with stop movements. Most of them are pretty self-explanatory, I think.

On the big candle prior to LO, I didn't actually move the stop but would have exited if it retraced sharply into the lower part of the bar.

After the 9:00 marubozu drop, I tightened just below. Buying/selling can often come in on the hour, so a candle like that with follow-through is enough to exit for me. Once we formed the tweezers, I tightened further. Why? Well, often I see patterns like this after an exhausted move, where the tweezers break, fall back into the M1 range, and then drop. Basically a 2b, but more specific to this.

As soon as the GBP news came out GU tanked but it's worth holding to see if EU follows, or as is often the case, it makes a smaller move the other way. We got that spike up but once we started to fall back to R2 I exited. No need to be greedy, as 55 pips on ~10 risk is good enough, even if it does carry on...

Now I've just got to stop writing so much in these posts. I'm starting to remember there was a reason I found ForexFactory so distracting and I think I know where the fault lies.

Edit: And carry on it has...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-april19.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #6,890
  • Apr 20, 2011 2:33am Apr 20, 2011 2:33am
Quoting Auron112
Quick follow-up to the trade. Here is the completed chart with stop movements. Most of them are pretty self-explanatory, I think.

On the big candle prior to LO, I didn't actually move the stop but would have exited if it retraced sharply into the lower part of the bar.

After the 9:00 marubozu drop, I tightened just below. Buying/selling can often come in on the hour, so a candle like that with follow-through is enough to exit for me. Once we formed the tweezers, I tightened further. Why? Well, often I see patterns like this after an exhausted...
Hey Auron, when you take these types of trades do you play with the break or wait for a candle close above the breakpoint/trendline and then enter ? How do you decide which way to play it ?

thanks
Dan
  • #6,891
  • Apr 20, 2011 3:16am Apr 20, 2011 3:16am
Quoting Auron112
Quick follow-up to the trade. Here is the completed chart with stop movements...

Now I've just got to stop writing so much in these posts. I'm starting to remember there was a reason I found ForexFactory so distracting and I think I know where the fault lies.

Edit: And carry on it has...
Nice trade Auron. Please do keep writing so much as a detailed analysis of how you managed the trade, stop movements with your thinking behind them is extremely instructive.
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #6,892
  • Apr 20, 2011 7:05am Apr 20, 2011 7:05am
A HnS trade taken from the right shoulder at 120.25.
the first hint was the marked high volume shooting star.
then a bunch of dojis and trendline break.

entry: 120.11
exit : 119.50 (Hns target being in the same region at 119.48)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20110420-ej-01.gif Size: 45 KB
  • #6,893
  • Edited 2:11am Apr 21, 2011 1:34am | Edited 2:11am
Quoting Ian
Nice trade Auron. Please do keep writing so much as a detailed analysis of how you managed the trade, stop movements with your thinking behind them is extremely instructive.
Thanks, Ian. I'm glad you find the chart instructive and the additional management ideas helpful. It's a bit of work to include that stuff sometimes, but I certainly understand the benefit in it.

For whatever reason ForexFactory is full of people marking entries but there is very little detail to be found about actual management of the trade. Considering the importance of this aspect of trading it's disappointing that more people don't share their stop management/exit reasoning. Of course, trade management is often a matter of individual perception rather than hard rules so that may be part of the reason some people avoid it, but I think that discounts what can be gained by seeing things through another's eyes. I certainly know I have gained a great deal myself over the years after seeing how someone like Islander approaches trades, so I shall endeavour to do the same.

I'll attempt to keep it up if I can but it's quite a distraction during trading hours (just Euro morning for me). Perhaps I will try and just provide a chart here and there when the day is done instead of closer to real-time. That way I can provide additional detail while hopefully keeping my results intact.

I should mention as well that I don't always trail in that fashion and actually one of the things that greatly appeals to me about this thread is the simplicity of entry and exit that Acumen/EV use (just take it to a level). So sometimes it's about taking pips at the levels as soon as we show signs of pulling back, but if the trend is good I always look to take a bigger chunk of the move if possible. Cheers.
  • #6,894
  • Apr 21, 2011 1:54am Apr 21, 2011 1:54am
Quoting dan89
Hey Auron, when you take these types of trades do you play with the break or wait for a candle close above the breakpoint/trendline and then enter ? How do you decide which way to play it ?

thanks
Dan
Very, very difficult question to answer, my friend. Again, the answer is very much a matter of individual perception and application of methodology, so there might not be much to be gained from how I specifically approach things. My best answer to this would be to, A) test/research possible entry conditions and types and B) get additional screen time.

Sometimes I will take an entry as soon as I see momentum come in on the M1, even if it's in the first minute or two of a M5 bar. Other times I need more data to make a decision and so it's best to wait for M5 bar close. A number of factors are in play to make the decision such as time of day, length of consolidation, patterns, trends, etc. I'm sure there are others who ALWAYS wait for the close of a M5 bar, and some who rarely do. But each person who is consistently profitable has found a way to sustain their edge with their preferred approach and has the history/testing to give them the confidence they need to keep doing it.

It's not my intent to be difficult or avoid answering your question. Only that the way I play each individual entry is part of the overall context of the trade (with some gut feel) and not a "set in stone" rule.

Now that all of that is out of the way, I'll give a brief explanation of my approach to the actual trade in question. This trade was actually pretty straight forward because all I was looking for was a long out of the pattern and off the trendline. My thinking was that if I get long, I want it to be A) above the trendline, B) above the R1 level if possible, and C) with M1 momentum in my favour. Ideally it would have a good M5 close just like we see in the picture, but I also realized that because of the length of the consolidation pattern and the strength of the preceding trend that any breakout was likely to be strong and most likely would not pull back very far (thus not giving me a second chance for entry near the level). So in this case I was more prepared to hit the button if we had a strong move pushing through R1 midway through a M5 bar rather than wait for the bar to close and potentially miss out. We had a good push up that satisfied my conditions and good momentum in a large bar (relative to the previous ones) so I entered prior to close. Hope that's helpful.
  • #6,895
  • Apr 21, 2011 8:51am Apr 21, 2011 8:51am
Quoting Auron112
Very, very difficult question to answer, my friend....
Hey Auron, thanks for the informative reply. I hadnt even thought about momentum on lower time frames. This should help me out alot when entering deciding when to enter a trade. Thanks again mate, appreciate it.

Dan
  • #6,896
  • Apr 21, 2011 9:53am Apr 21, 2011 9:53am
Quoting Dhb
Just got home and I'm almost heading out again, so no trading for me today, but somebody please tell me they just went long on the bullish wedge/flag breakout (bouncing off of the daily pivot to boot) on euro and made some easy $$$...

Attachment
Nicely spotted, mate, and had I been around, I'd like to think I'd have snatched that one up!! However, I've been in hospital for a few days getting something sorted out, so it's nice to see someone who's still using good old K.I.S.S.
  • #6,897
  • Apr 22, 2011 1:19am Apr 22, 2011 1:19am
Quoting eyevoltage
Nicely spotted, mate, and had I been around, I'd like to think I'd have snatched that one up!! However, I've been in hospital for a few days getting something sorted out, so it's nice to see someone who's still using good old K.I.S.S.
I'm sure you would have, had you been around.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #6,898
  • Apr 26, 2011 12:54am Apr 26, 2011 12:54am
A nice start to my week with this on the 5m EU............

A good healthy flag pattern, culminating in a bullish engulfing candle forming in the MA zone and the mid-point confluence. Think I'll put the kettle on in celebration!!!
Attached Image
  • #6,899
  • Apr 26, 2011 1:08am Apr 26, 2011 1:08am
Always nice to see I took the same trade as the master ...
Good for +37 p

Quoting eyevoltage
A nice start to my week with this on the 5m EU............

A good healthy flag pattern, culminating in a bullish engulfing candle forming in the MA zone and the mid-point confluence. Think I'll put the kettle on in celebration!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 26apr 37p.jpg Size: 154 KB
  • #6,900
  • Apr 26, 2011 1:12am Apr 26, 2011 1:12am
Quoting david4u
Always nice to see I took the same trade as the master ...
Good for +37 p
Nice one, David.
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