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  • #420,661
  • Apr 12, 2011 2:50pm Apr 12, 2011 2:50pm
Quoting cammomile
They have dogs in Australia too, you know.

prairie dogs?
The dreamers are the saviors of the world.
  • #420,662
  • Apr 12, 2011 2:53pm Apr 12, 2011 2:53pm
Quoting Alexbabwa
Thanks SunTrader. I understand that much, what I am curious to know is why the link is there in the first place. I can only imagine its something to do with The US economy being made up a lot by oil imports or something?
Not so much to do with our oil imports.

But because most of the oil traded in the world today is priced in dollars and we have been printing more of them this puts pressure on the price of oil to rise to compensate for devalued dollars received.

Dollar down increases oil which drives the dollar down further. A cycle that has been repeating itself for a while now.

So this all causes EU to go up but not because things are better in Europe than here but because they have slower printing presses.
  • #420,663
  • Apr 12, 2011 2:58pm Apr 12, 2011 2:58pm
Quoting SunTrader
Not so much to do with our oil imports.

But because most of the oil traded in the world today is priced in dollars and we have been printing more of them this puts pressure on the price of oil to rise to compensate for devalued dollars received.

Dollar down increases oil which drives the dollar down further. A cycle that has been repeating itself for a while now.

So this all causes EU to go up but not because things are better in Europe than here but because they have slower printing presses.
I agree EU printing presses are outdated, they need to print Eur 1 Trillion per day to meet demand.
  • #420,664
  • Apr 12, 2011 2:59pm Apr 12, 2011 2:59pm
Quoting cloggie
Commodities and equities are topping out, changing the intraday bias towards risk aversion. Longs are no longer in play here. Correlation/risk setup is playing out perfectly here. Gold and Oil are topping out to the pip at the levels I was looking for 3 hours ago.

Would I short this right here right now? Not yet, I am not interested in 10-20 pip trades.
Hey Cloggie, I have a question for you as I've become more and more interested in correlations and fundies as of lately. Which equities do you usually keep an eye on? Thanks for your time.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #420,665
  • Apr 12, 2011 3:03pm Apr 12, 2011 3:03pm
Quoting SunTrader
So this all causes EU to go up but not because things are better in Europe than here but because they have slower printing presses.
agree, but even IMF thinks that the US must slow down, and they don't say things like that very often...
  • #420,666
  • Apr 12, 2011 3:25pm Apr 12, 2011 3:25pm
Some of EU pnf
Attached Image
  • #420,667
  • Apr 12, 2011 3:38pm Apr 12, 2011 3:38pm
Quoting cammomile
They have dogs in Australia too, you know.
Funny!

When my dog is having a chew on my arm, I'll say...crikey! she's a croc! (accent included)

Also have a good friend here that brought home an American Dingo from Phoenix, AZ. The dog's a biatch...seriously! But her mama is anything but.
  • #420,668
  • Apr 12, 2011 3:45pm Apr 12, 2011 3:45pm
Quoting AriX3
prairie dogs?
Still holding short(s)?

I'm still holding both mine posted earlier. Was hoping the 4502 order was going to get filled, though. Its early yet. Added another couple pending orders above...

sordid details following...(if anybody wants exacts.)
  • #420,669
  • Apr 12, 2011 3:48pm Apr 12, 2011 3:48pm
Quoting puma1
Some of EU pnf
Attachment
Love your charts! Always remind me of this (except for the colors, of course)...

Inserted Video
  • #420,670
  • Apr 12, 2011 3:50pm Apr 12, 2011 3:50pm
Quoting vox dei
Hey Cloggie, I have a question for you as I've become more and more interested in correlations and fundies as of lately. Which equities do you usually keep an eye on? Thanks for your time.
I'm guessing he means stock indices...

S&P 500 (SPX) is the usual benchmark for risk flows...
  • #420,671
  • Edited 3:52pm Apr 12, 2011 3:51pm | Edited 3:52pm
oil and gold are not as correlated as you may think when oil topped at $148 gold was between $801 and $905 and when oil bottomed at $32 gold was at $850 ,in the short term there may be a slight correlation due to people shifting their portfolios to commodities, but on the other hand if the situation in Libya is solved oil will fall 10% in about a week and 20% in around a month leaving gold relatively unchanged and if the conflict goes on for much longer oil may return to $112 a barrel with gold relatively unchanged.
  • #420,672
  • Apr 12, 2011 3:52pm Apr 12, 2011 3:52pm
Quoting cloggie
Commodities and equities are topping out, changing the intraday bias towards risk aversion. Longs are no longer in play here. Correlation/risk setup is playing out perfectly here. Gold and Oil are topping out to the pip at the levels I was looking for 3 hours ago.

Would I short this right here right now? Not yet, I am not interested in 10-20 pip trades.
oil and gold are not as correlated as you may think when oil topped at $148 gold was between $801 and $905 and when oil bottomed at $32 gold was at $850 ,in the short term there may be a slight correlation due to people shifting their portfolios to commodities, but on the other hand if the situation in Libya is solved oil will fall 10% in about a week and 20% in around a month leaving gold relatively unchanged and if the conflict goes on for much longer oil may return to $112 a barrel with gold relatively unchanged.
  • #420,673
  • Apr 12, 2011 3:55pm Apr 12, 2011 3:55pm
"The history of the bailout era reads like one of those awful stories about what happens when a long-dormant criminal compulsion goes unchecked. The Peeping Tom next door stares through a few bathroom windows, doesn't get caught, and decides to break in and steal a pair of panties. Next thing you know, he's upgraded to homemade dungeons, tri-state serial rampages and throwing cheerleaders into a panel truck."

I love it!

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics...0110411?page=1

Jag
  • #420,674
  • Apr 12, 2011 3:55pm Apr 12, 2011 3:55pm
Quoting kenfen69
Still holding short(s)?

I'm still holding both mine posted earlier. Was hoping the 4502 order was going to get filled, though. Its early yet. Added another couple pending orders above...

sordid details following...(if anybody wants exacts.)
Not holding anything in EU atm, but more shorts are possible... Looking on 4 hour chart, it could be violent, but until it breaks that steep tl to the downside i am looking to buy it only.
  • #420,675
  • Apr 12, 2011 3:56pm Apr 12, 2011 3:56pm
Quoting SunTrader
Not so much to do with our oil imports.

But because most of the oil traded in the world today is priced in dollars and we have been printing more of them this puts pressure on the price of oil to rise to compensate for devalued dollars received.

Dollar down increases oil which drives the dollar down further. A cycle that has been repeating itself for a while now.

So this all causes EU to go up but not because things are better in Europe than here but because they have slower printing presses.
Oil is outperforming most major pairs in percentages, while it gets attention around the world. the moves are incredible in the past few months.

Even though oil has dropped from 113.40 to 107, the USD hasn't regained any of its value. Clearly, oil is getting comfortable above $100 and moving up will surely take place if the USD continues to decline. The drop in Oil was also good for YEN as japan relies heavily on imports and fluctuation in oil can affect the Japanese economy. Natural disasters couldn't help either.
  • #420,676
  • Apr 12, 2011 4:03pm Apr 12, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
I'm guessing he means stock indices...

S&P 500 (SPX) is the usual benchmark for risk flows...
Thanks for the feedback
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #420,677
  • Apr 12, 2011 4:06pm Apr 12, 2011 4:06pm
anyone agree there is divergence forming on H4?
  • #420,678
  • Apr 12, 2011 4:34pm Apr 12, 2011 4:34pm
Quoting 2046
anyone agree there is divergence forming on H4?
Between price and ....?
  • #420,679
  • Apr 12, 2011 4:39pm Apr 12, 2011 4:39pm
Quoting 2046
anyone agree there is divergence forming on H4?
Yes, there's classic div formed around yesterday's high. My 2 cents: just ignore it. It's countertrend, plus the move is basically near exhaustion by now. Stick with the trend. Plenty more room to the upside. I'm adding to my position around 14443 area.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #420,680
  • Apr 12, 2011 4:41pm Apr 12, 2011 4:41pm
Correlation is a pain these days. New trends need to be set.

For the short time being, Oversold markets, positions weary of next move, no defenitive long term trends. I would suspect any news to be knee-jerk reaction and the first set of 'big news' to be a possible longer term trend setter ... but who knows.

For now, going to let Euro & Aud set a last rally up between now and U.S. open tomorrow being putting on a carry trade short.

But until then, scalping time!
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