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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #23,401
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:27pm Mar 17, 2011 7:27pm
Quoting wwwin
I nominate Noda for FF's man of the month...
Lol, I see a man using his iphone to record his voice. Is it professional? lol
  • #23,402
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:39pm Mar 17, 2011 7:39pm
Quoting visser300
Lol, I see a man using his iphone to record his voice. Is it professional? lol
I think that is a live phone call with a trader on the other side of the call...no insider trading penalty in fx, the reporter got bribed by Soros...lol
  • #23,403
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:42pm Mar 17, 2011 7:42pm
Quoting realjumper
Analysis: The G7 Ride Again, Collaborating to Fight Yen Rise

The above link is an interesting read
Thanks. Here's the most interesting part :
“In response to recent movements in the exchange rate of the yen
associated with the tragic events in Japan, and at the request of the
Japanese authorities, the authorities of the United States, the United
Kingdom, Canada and the European Central Bank will join with Japan, on
March 18, 2011, in concerted intervention in exchange markets,” they
asserted."
  • #23,404
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:48pm Mar 17, 2011 7:48pm
Quoting ts63
Thanks. Here's the most interesting part :
“In response to recent movements in the exchange rate of the yen
associated with the tragic events in Japan, and at the request of the
Japanese authorities, the authorities of the United States, the United
Kingdom, Canada and the European Central Bank will join with Japan, on
March 18, 2011, in concerted intervention in exchange markets,” they
asserted."
Yeah, during those countries' hours, but is this already priced in???
  • #23,405
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:53pm Mar 17, 2011 7:53pm
WHat happened in the usd/jpy? I just noticed a spike in the charts, yet there is no news on the calendar? I am thinking I might short his spike, it looks overdone (no news on the calendar) Anybody know whats going on? Also, I hear something about new zealand cutting interest rates? Is this true?
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #23,406
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:57pm Mar 17, 2011 7:57pm
Quoting frothy
WHat happened in the usd/jpy? I just noticed a spike in the charts, yet there is no news on the calendar? I am thinking I might short his spike, it looks overdone (no news on the calendar) Anybody know whats going on? Also, I hear something about new zealand cutting interest rates? Is this true?
OK, I have to ask ... didn't you write this 5 hours ago ... ?

Quoting frothy
The intervention will be so big it wont even be funny.......600 pips easy, they have to compensate for the influx of repatriation to occur in the next few months. I would guess the intervention would take us up to .87 .90 easily. In 1995 the yen fell almost 1000pips after the earthquake, so you would want a cushion with the repatriation to occur. Up to .85ish...next few months repatriate, bring us back down to .82 ish, and then bam, Japan's state of economy gets downgraded and back above par we for the remainder of the year.

P.S hearing a rumour,...
  • #23,407
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:58pm Mar 17, 2011 7:58pm
Quoting frothy
WHat happened in the usd/jpy? Anybody know whats going on?

Nope, crazy isn't it?



Review the thread a bit, that should help.
  • #23,408
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:59pm Mar 17, 2011 7:59pm
Quoting Beljevina
OK, I have to ask ... didn't you write this 5 hours ago ... ?


  • #23,409
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:04pm Mar 17, 2011 8:04pm
Quoting frothy
WHat happened in the usd/jpy? I just noticed a spike in the charts, yet there is no news on the calendar? I am thinking I might short his spike, it looks overdone (no news on the calendar) Anybody know whats going on? Also, I hear something about new zealand cutting interest rates? Is this true?

PRESS RELEASE (http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/201...110318.en.html)

18 March 2011 - Statement of G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors

We, the G7 Finance Ministers and central bank governors, discussed the recent dramatic events in Japan and were briefed by our Japanese colleagues on the current situation and the economic and financial response put in place by the authorities.
We express our solidarity with the Japanese people in these difficult times, our readiness to provide any needed cooperation and our confidence in the resilience of the Japanese economy and financial sector.
In response to recent movements in the exchange rate of the yen associated with the tragic events in Japan, and at the request of the Japanese authorities, the authorities of the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Central Bank will join with Japan, on 
18 March 2011, in concerted intervention in exchange markets. As we have long stated, excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will monitor exchange markets closely and will cooperate as appropriate.

European Central Bank
Directorate Communications
Press and Information Division
Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Tel.: +49 69 1344 7455, Fax: +49 69 1344 7404
Internet: http://www.ecb.europa.eu
Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged.
  • #23,410
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:10pm Mar 17, 2011 8:10pm
anyone Longed EUR/USD and then longed USD/JPY? then it would make alot of sense to long EUR/JPY also. ha
  • #23,411
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:28pm Mar 17, 2011 8:28pm
About 95 percent of public debt is held domestically, virtually eliminating the risk of capital flight.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...uT0SLxFA&pos=4
  • #23,412
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:29pm Mar 17, 2011 8:29pm
Can someone please explain to me in some level of detail how the YEN seems to be persistent in increasing in value against the USD, when the threat of nuclear fallout is around the corner?

I would have thought the YEN would weaken incredibly because of this but the last few days have proved the opposite.

Any comments here would be great.

Scratches head...
  • #23,413
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:37pm Mar 17, 2011 8:37pm
Quoting kzazs
Its so funny as all the speculators ran away. This is once in a life time opportunity as Yen might take another 15 years to see these low levels again
In times like these, I wouldn't count on that scenario.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #23,414
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:39pm Mar 17, 2011 8:39pm
so much talk, but nobody says if they are long or short..

also nobody says what they think will reach yen in short term.

in the next hours it looks like it will hit 83.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #23,415
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:40pm Mar 17, 2011 8:40pm
Quoting TexasforEX
In times like these, I wouldn't count on that scenario.
I remember saying roughly the same thing when it got down to 84.
  • #23,416
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:44pm Mar 17, 2011 8:44pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
so much talk, but nobody says if they are long or short..

also nobody says what they think will reach yen in short term.

in the next hours it looks like it will hit 83.
As much as I want to swing for the homerun, I simply can't buy yen today but I can't sell it after it's gone 265 pips before London either. I guess I'm staying clear of Mr. Yen today.

But I am rooting for the market to decide to take on some central banks! FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT

Inserted Video
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #23,417
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:54pm Mar 17, 2011 8:54pm
Quoting TexasforEX
I guess I'm staying clear of Mr. Yen today.
Could be a prudent move. It is Friday already and as for me I have just about called it a week. I'm still keeping one eye on it but I am not going to push anything, not on a Friday. Sipping on some cold ones and just having a relaxing night watching the tourney.
  • #23,418
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:02pm Mar 17, 2011 9:02pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
so much talk, but nobody says if they are long or short..

also nobody says what they think will reach yen in short term.

in the next hours it looks like it will hit 83.
i am long since 81.17 and added to it at 81.74... i am not sure what the yen will reach so I am watching my trade as it goes... 83 does seem likely to me by NY open, if not London...
  • #23,419
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:07pm Mar 17, 2011 9:07pm
Quoting adzza
Can someone please explain to me in some level of detail how the YEN seems to be persistent in increasing in value against the USD, when the threat of nuclear fallout is around the corner?

I would have thought the YEN would weaken incredibly because of this but the last few days have proved the opposite.

Any comments here would be great.

Scratches head...
Forexlive said it best a few days ago - see the image below. CNBC/Kathy Lien had a fantastic video explanation here as well - full credit to FFLaguna a few pages ago. This may also be helpful and this.

Quoting EricKamezou
anyone Longed EUR/USD and then longed USD/JPY? then it would make alot of sense to long EUR/JPY also. ha
Absolutely. When there is a yen specific action/reaction underway, the yen pairs will move more or less together. The movement/effect is usually greater in GBPJPY and EURJPY (also others), but I usually lean to sterling because it tends to 'pay' better, and that's been the case today - it's up over 500 pips, while USDJPY is up about 260. EURJPY is up slight less than sterling around 400 or so. EJ and GJ get the extra rise effect if EU and GU go up as well. I had buy stops set up in GY, but didn't opt for EY this time, because of the lack of clarity in EU; the fact that Noda came out and blatantly said they will buy/intervene is a shocker.
Attached Image
  • #23,420
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:08pm Mar 17, 2011 9:08pm
Nobody's talking about bad outcomes, i got one and am still reeling. I have a post with content several pages back in this fast moving thread. If i am out of the manual moderator mode as a newbie I will go get it again, so this is a test ...
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