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  • #23,321
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:59pm Mar 17, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting altair
is it still good time for short?
I'm short 78.80

GO long now for great justice
  • #23,322
  • Mar 17, 2011 1:10pm Mar 17, 2011 1:10pm
Quoting altair
is it still good time for short?
I'm short 78.80
imo no clear patterns either way, will take some time I guess
Maybe You can explain the reason of your short @ 78.80
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #23,323
  • Mar 17, 2011 1:32pm Mar 17, 2011 1:32pm
Nice one

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=284904
Dreaming in Charts...
  • #23,324
  • Mar 17, 2011 1:42pm Mar 17, 2011 1:42pm
Here’s how intervention is gonna work…

http://www.forexlive.com/174051/all/...-is-gonna-work
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,325
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:29pm Mar 17, 2011 2:29pm
The intervention will be so big it wont even be funny.......600 pips easy, they have to compensate for the influx of repatriation to occur in the next few months. I would guess the intervention would take us up to .87 .90 easily. In 1995 the yen fell almost 1000pips after the earthquake, so you would want a cushion with the repatriation to occur. Up to .85ish...next few months repatriate, bring us back down to .82 ish, and then bam, Japan's state of economy gets downgraded and back above par we for the remainder of the year.

P.S hearing a rumour, intervention to start tonight. Also anybody wanna help frothy out and follow me on twitter? I just joined up and I dont have that many followers. It would be cool to show my gf I have a following!! I might get sum out of it (omegaexchange@twitter)
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #23,326
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:34pm Mar 17, 2011 2:34pm
Quoting frothy
The intervention will be so big it wont even be funny.......600 pips easy, they have to compensate for the influx of repatriation to occur in the next few months. I would guess the intervention would take us up to .87 .90 easily. In 1995 the yen fell almost 1000pips after the earthquake, so you would want a cushion with the repatriation to occur. Up to .85ish...next few months repatriate, bring us back down to .82 ish, and then bam, Japan's state of economy gets downgraded and back above par we for the remainder of the year.

P.S hearing a rumour,...
I know the central banks aren't dumb. So why do they feel the need to dump enormous amounts of currency on the market in huge lumps? Why not spread it out over an indefinite period of time?
  • #23,327
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:38pm Mar 17, 2011 2:38pm
Quoting frothy
The intervention will be so big it wont even be funny.......600 pips easy, they have to compensate for the influx of repatriation to occur in the next few months. I would guess the intervention would take us up to .87 .90 easily. In 1995 the yen fell almost 1000pips after the earthquake, so you would want a cushion with the repatriation to occur.
I wouldn't bet the farm they'll drive it 600 pips - for all the lack of action over the past many months, it would be foolish to take it 600 pips in one sweep. Not to mention, this is actually quite costly to the gov't.

Anyway that aside, this write up from Kathy Lien is a great read --- let's hope it's actual only for the next couple of hours or so, meaning, I do hope they act. I will be in GBPJPY, USDJPY and perhaps EURJPY. Original article here, first intervention part included below. BTW, following Kathy on Twitter with a good pop up client on your PC is stellar ... she updates as key news events occur, almost instantly - not quite sure how she is so on the ball.

I don't recall reading it anywhere, but, one of the possible 'signs' that intervention is coming might be in the form of a 'checking rates' newswire/service flash coming .... they don't have to do this, and there is no guarantee, but it would be nice. All the more reason to have all your newsfeeds running through a popup client, assuming you are going to try to trade this thing. Either way, the first pop is guaranteed to be at least 100 pips. True, everyone expecting it tonight, and there are reasons to have it done prior to the weekend, but you never know, a next-week date might be on deck. Either way, Good Luck.

Oh, and it's possible for 'fake' jumps of 50-100 pips to be made in the pairs - yes, that is sneaky, and it happened a number of times after last Sept's intervention - you do not want to be holding the bag on one of those.

YEN INTERVENTION SCENARIOS

Relief and recovery was the theme in the financial markets today with safe haven flows easing out of the U.S. dollar, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. The Bank of Japan did not intervene in their currency last night but their lack of intervention should not be misinterpreted as their lack of concern for the rise in the Yen. The big focus tonight will be on intervention. The G7 will be holding a joint meeting that could lead to a coordinated effort on intervention. A report from Reuters suggests that it was an initial exchange of views on economic risks and an attempt to show solidarity. According to their source, currencies were not discussed. So far, the G7 has yet to make an official statement but the press conference is scheduled for 6pm NY Time / 7am Tokyo / 22 GMT. Therefore we remain skeptical about the legitimacy of this prior report. Getting the other G7 nations to agree to intervene in the currency market is a tall task for Japan. The last time there was a coordinated effort was in 2000, when central banks stepped into the market together to support the euro. Since then, they have opted for verbal intervention by changing the language in G7 statements. Actions speak a lot louder than words which means that verbal intervention may not be enough to halt the rally in the Yen. As the FT points out the “international community may not be able to offer much help with the rescue operation or the nuclear crisis, but it can certainly help on the exchange rate” which suggests that they could be more willing to sell Yen alongside the BoJ.

Yet even if Japan fails to convince their G7 counterparts, they could still come into the market by themselves. Dow Jones reported the Ministry of Finance as saying that they are “ready for battle” on the yen. The last time the Bank of Japan intervened in their currency was in September of last year. USD/JPY was trading at a much higher level at the time (83), but fresh off the heels of Prime Minister Kan’s victory, the government took extra steps to ensure a recovery. The conditions in Japan are severe at this time and much help is needed. The recent strength of the Yen has made life more difficult for Japanese companies who may already be suffering from a drop in domestic demand and the freezing of production facilities. According to the last Tankan survey released in December, Japanese firms are accounting for a USD/JPY rate of 86.50. Some reports are saying that exporters are hedged down to 80. Either way, if USD/JPY resumes its slide, most exporters will not be completely hedged.

Yen Intervention Scenarios
In terms of intervention, the Japanese government can intervene at anytime during the day but on September 15 th , they came into the foreign exchange market at approximately 10:40am Tokyo time, which would be 9:40pm NY Time. Here are the potential scenarios for intervention - Coordinated intervention would drive the Yen sharply lower against all of the major currencies in what would probably become a long term bottom for these pairs. If the Japanese government intervenes alone, the Japanese Yen would still decline but the sell-off would most likely be temporary because unilateral intervention rarely works. If there is no intervention, the gains that we have seen so far would start to fade and the Yen could recapture its gains.

  • #23,328
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:42pm Mar 17, 2011 2:42pm
Quoting beljevina
i wouldn't bet the farm they'll drive it 600 pips - for all the lack of action over the past many months, it would be foolish to take it 600 pips in one sweep. Not to mention, this is actually quite costly to the gov't.

Anyway that aside, this write up from kathy lien is a great read --- let's hope it's actual only for the next couple of hours or so, meaning, i do hope they act. I will be in gbpjpy, usdjpy and perhaps eurjpy. Original article here, first...
hi.im a newbie in forex trading. I have bought usd/jpy. Should i sit or should i close it. Im break even as this point.

As you can see im a newbie. I dont really know forex terms. Not sure if i even know what pips is. Cheers
  • #23,329
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:45pm Mar 17, 2011 2:45pm
Place your Bet!

What are the odds on this fight?
  • #23,330
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:50pm Mar 17, 2011 2:50pm
Quoting Beljevina
[indent]YEN INTERVENTION SCENARIOS

Relief and recovery was the theme in the financial markets today with safe haven flows easing out of the U.S. dollar, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. The Bank of Japan did not intervene in their currency last night but their lack of intervention should not be misinterpreted as their lack of concern for the rise in the Yen. The big focus tonight will be on intervention. The G7 will be holding a joint meeting that could lead to a coordinated effort on intervention. A report from Reuters suggests that it was...
Nice.....thank you
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,331
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:51pm Mar 17, 2011 2:51pm
Quoting Aldrin
hi.im a newbie in forex trading. I have bought usd/jpy. Should i sit or should i close it. Im break even as this point.

As you can see im a newbie. I dont really know forex terms. Not sure if i even know what pips is. Cheers
I hope you're not too deeply leveraged or invested in UJ. Do note there is no guarantee of anything. Today, the pendulum has swung from major-nuclear-radiation-disaster to maybe-we-can-fix-this-thing, and a reason to intervene in the yen pairs. IMO you are fairly safe for a initial 100 pip pop and a potential of 200, 300 or more. But, caveats are bad news happening before the intervention, which may or may not be today. You should be prepared for a worst case bounce back down to the 76 region - can't advise you to hold or not, because it depends on one's account size and other trading factors.

BTW, 100 pips is a move from 78 to 79 in the case of UJ, or say from 127 to 128 in the case of GBPJPY. You might want to brush up on some of those basics, and certainly understand your broker's margin implications.

EDIT: Just thinking, for a new investor, playing with an intervention with anything more than 1% of your account could be a tough way to learn. One can get lucky, but other factors can take hold. It takes years to learn the nuances of spot fx trading, including living through and carefully observing what occurs in a currency intervention. I do hope you succeed and be careful about any buys if it shoots up - most dealer fills will be terrible, ie., off by 20-40 pips. ie., I sold on the way down in yesterday's pummelling of GBPJPY, setting a 10 pip sale price below where I shorted - and my short exited 70 pips below that - so, I signed up for 10 pips, really knowing I would get more because of the poor fills and liquidity, obviously working in my favour.
  • #23,332
  • Mar 17, 2011 3:04pm Mar 17, 2011 3:04pm
Quoting Beljevina
I hope you're not too deeply leveraged or invested in UJ. Do note there is no guarantee of anything. Today, the pendulum has swung from major-nuclear-radiation-disaster to maybe-we-can-fix-this-thing, and a reason to intervene in the yen pairs. IMO you are fairly safe for a initial 100 pip pop and a potential of 200, 300 or more. But, caveats are bad news happening before the intervention, which may or may not be today. You should be prepared for a worst case bounce back down to the 76 region - can't advise you to hold or not, because it depends...
Understood only half of what you wrote there, partially because im a newbie and partially the fact that englsih is not my mother tongue. But I think i got the point.
Thanks.
  • #23,333
  • Mar 17, 2011 3:07pm Mar 17, 2011 3:07pm
Quoting Aldrin
hi.im a newbie in forex trading. I have bought usd/jpy. Should i sit or should i close it. Im break even as this point.

As you can see im a newbie. I dont really know forex terms. Not sure if i even know what pips is. Cheers
You need to check the pipvalue and calculate ur positions, and put a SL. If u are too risky you can blow the account in a blink.

What Margin Level % d u have?
  • #23,334
  • Mar 17, 2011 3:22pm Mar 17, 2011 3:22pm
I am having trouble reconciling the expectations being discussed here with the historical info available earlier in this thread. There is the Kobe earthquake chart here http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=22630 and the historical interventions table here http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1300314231

The Kobe saw a fall of 2,000 pips over 12 weeks and intervention started after 1,100 pips with little effect it appears assuming both those pieces of info are correct. Here we are talking about intervention starting as early as tomorrow which is different, but surely the rebuilding repatriation and the presumably better thing it is for the Japanese to bring dollars home with a high Yen means there is every prospect that history will repeat itself?

I care a lot about getting this right as I lost 90% my account yesterday. Not being US I have hedged the last 10% at 77.18 and need to release the hold at the right time to give me a chance of riding this mess out. However if I get it wrong that is me done for 4X trading as I have turned $120k into 12k taking a long position as an investment with protection in place down to the unthinkable 77.5 level, well sheet happens!
  • #23,335
  • Mar 17, 2011 3:28pm Mar 17, 2011 3:28pm
Interesting to see UJ has moved 30 pips up from 5-6pm NY time and GJ 50 pips during that most illiquid hour. My guess is that there are buy stops place up through that area, or just buy fills coming in by folks waiting for intervention.

If it occurs great - (no guarantee) - but if not, New Zealand/Aussie dealer desks will sweep things back down and potentially hit SLs, which will be incredibly easy to do given the new range of the yen crosses. (After such a major move regardless of reason, the yen crosses will move hundreds of pips in a very short period of time, as supply and demand is created and the new zones are built)

Separately, news & opinion is everything. Am reading some web snippets now where others are thinking there will be no intervention today.
  • #23,336
  • Mar 17, 2011 3:37pm Mar 17, 2011 3:37pm
Quoting Beljevina
Am reading some web snippets now where others are thinking there will be no intervention today.
The more I read about it, the less likely it will come, as a matter of fact I'm almost sure it will not come, but then you never can be sure
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #23,337
  • Mar 17, 2011 3:41pm Mar 17, 2011 3:41pm
Quoting USD-Bear
The more I read about it, the less likely it will come, as a matter of fact I'm almost sure it will not come, but then you never can be sure
Yes, I'm reading similar reports. Just guessing but I imagine that the G7 meeting gave the green lght to intervene, if Japan wants it. Now the questions are, do they want it?......and if so, when?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,338
  • Mar 17, 2011 3:58pm Mar 17, 2011 3:58pm
Quoting Aldrin
Not sure if i even know what pips is. Cheers
Then you should not have a trade open in the first place, practice or otherwise.
  • #23,339
  • Mar 17, 2011 4:10pm Mar 17, 2011 4:10pm
Still fighting -280 pips, long at 81.940, but gentlemen this a disaster, dont let the BIG GUYS lie to you, sooner or later is the big big long.....so just sit and wait, stop searching correct answers for yen strenght....

No regret
No surrender
  • #23,340
  • Edited 4:22pm Mar 17, 2011 4:13pm | Edited 4:22pm
Quoting realjumper
Yes, I'm reading similar reports. Just guessing but I imagine that the G7 meeting gave the green lght to intervene, if Japan wants it. Now the questions are, do they want it?......and if so, when?

In just about any other market situation, it would make sense for the BOJ to intervene, but I feel that most traders neglect how different this situation is. Right now, in such crisis, export is not the primary concern, but now japan has to import tons to rebuild before it can start exporting goods as usual, so the stronger yen seems to work in japans favor for now. The only intervention I can imagine would be just to control wild market volatility.

Nevertheless? I'm staying on the sidelines for now... Things are still too uncertain for me
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