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  • #401,321
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:05am Mar 4, 2011 9:05am
Quoting samdani786
Its not a Gartley. Its a BUTTERFLY. I spotted it last year and shorting it since then . See attached.
thanks. yes bullish butterfly. I dont really trade them. just as a reference.
  • #401,322
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:09am Mar 4, 2011 9:09am
still buy, buy and buy
  • #401,323
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:10am Mar 4, 2011 9:10am
Quoting cloggie
The only thing that is giving them a stay of execution is TNX gradually testing the year's high again and the 5 yr Bund seeing a bit of a rally. Once we see a rejection there the FI boys will focus back on Portugal. There is no avoiding it as the EU/Portugal cannot afford a restructuring, they are at the mercy of the FI boys, and they want to get paid.
Agree 100%.

Btw be "careful" of what you said as our Portuguese "friend" lone ranger will start bombarding us with his blog post on how Portugal economy is the next Mediterranean Tiger and a little bit better than all BRICs combined... lol enjoy the weekend

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #401,324
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:11am Mar 4, 2011 9:11am
Quoting sisse
Agree 100%.

Btw be "careful" of what you said as our Portuguese "friend" lone ranger will start bombarding us with his blog post and how Portugal economy is the next Mediterranean Tiger and a little bit better than all BRICs combined...

sisse

I just edited my post to reflect that at the same time you posted this.
  • #401,325
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:18am Mar 4, 2011 9:18am
Quoting cloggie
Not many proper fundie traders around here on this thread. This is turning out exactly as Ireland and Greece were last year.
yep and ecb is talking about raising rates. that sure will not help the troubled ones. nor Germany.. but his job is inflation.. i scalp till it happens.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #401,326
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:25am Mar 4, 2011 9:25am
Quoting sisse
Agree 100%.

Btw be "careful" of what you said as our Portuguese "friend" lone ranger will start bombarding us with his blog post on how Portugal economy is the next Mediterranean Tiger and a little bit better than all BRICs combined... lol enjoy the weekend

sisse

I think Germany is about the only EZ country to actually want a rate hike. My european friends in other countries are horrified at what could happen. Could this hike talk be smoke and mirrors to force Portugal to cry uncle and come to the table. This month is a month of descisions for EZ. We could see an April/May timebomb go off like last year as EZ lookks damned if they do and damned if they don't. USA looks to be moving in the dare I say "right" position as QE2 will most certainly come off in June if not earlier as many conservatives are now demanding.
  • #401,327
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:26am Mar 4, 2011 9:26am
Quoting gatorinla
yep and ecb is talking about raising rates. that sure will not help the troubled ones. nor Germany..

That is the two edged sword. It is keeping the spreads from widening this week. As soon as the rate hike is priced in we will see the spreads widening again as the focus is back on Portugal. The FI boys will want to force Portugal to a bailout before the rate hike materialises as they will get paid twice. Trichet is not helping the periphery here at all but he has no choice as his mandate is purely inflationary. I am sure they had discussions on what it would cost to bailout the peripherry versus allowing inflation to get out of control. The focus is on the core countries as they are the greatest contributors to the health and future growth of the EU, the periphery is just a price that needs to be paid to make it work.
  • #401,328
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:26am Mar 4, 2011 9:26am
Quoting cloggie
Not many proper fundie traders around here on this thread. This is turning out exactly as Ireland and Greece were last year.
they see it too... they talk out both sides of their mouth...
- "There is a danger of higher oil prices becoming entrenched in other prices, even though inflation expectations have remained anchored," European Central Bank Governing Council member Christian Noyer was quoted as saying on Friday.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #401,329
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:30am Mar 4, 2011 9:30am
Quoting gatorinla
they see it too... they talk out both sides of their mouth...
- "There is a danger of higher oil prices becoming entrenched in other prices, even though inflation expectations have remained anchored," European Central Bank Governing Council member Christian Noyer was quoted as saying on Friday.

The dollar drop is overextended, we are getting close to the point that not many are willing to take the other side as there is too much at stake, once we see a good fundie trigger I will start looking for my next position trade, until then I just trade purely intraday just like you are.

Bernanke will soon start voicing his support for a stronger dollar as that will curtail inflation at home and reduce commodity inflation worldwide, China pegged at the highest rate this week and will want the dollar to bounce also.

There are some very good opportunities on the horizon giving us plenty of 150-200 pip days with little retraces in the coming weeks. March is going to be very interesting and should be very profitable if one has a good handle on the fundies.
  • #401,330
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:34am Mar 4, 2011 9:34am
Quoting cloggie
That is the two edged sword. It is keeping the spreads from widening this week. As soon as the rate hike is priced in we will see the spreads widening again as the focus is back on Portugal. The FI boys will want to force Portugal to a bailout before the rate hike materialises as they will get paid twice. Trichet is not helping the periphery here at all but he has no choice as his mandate is purely inflationary. I am sure they had discussions on what it would cost to bailout the peripherry versus allowing inflation to get out of control. The focus...
they are phucked.. with no place to turn..high hates will further dry up liquidity. and risk the whole system calasp. bb saved them in 2008, by passing the market with "in the middle of the night currency " hidden "swaps".. bb has more of a leash on him this time.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #401,331
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:35am Mar 4, 2011 9:35am
Quoting cloggie
Covered all 3 at the London close for 21 pips avg. Done for the day. I have shown plenty of examples here last week of how to play the London fix, readers can read between the lines and use it to their advantage.

Enjoy your weekend Sisse.

Am flat across the board, ready for another week.

BTW, Portugal 5-yr pushing the all time high of 7.35 as we speak if this holds above the magic 7 we can see some interesting times ahead. See daily chart below.
Thank you
Do your time and enjoy the ride...
  • #401,332
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:35am Mar 4, 2011 9:35am
Has not retraced down yet. Will be retracing now, once it hits a retrace lvl I will post buys and targets
  • #401,333
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:36am Mar 4, 2011 9:36am
Quoting dswk
still buy, buy and buy

Nah, the weekly is not going to close on a high. Look back and see how often that really happens????? A better strategy if you want to trade in thin volumes here is selling the rallies for short scalps. That's my 2 cents.
  • #401,334
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:36am Mar 4, 2011 9:36am
Quoting Redeemed1
I think Germany is about the only EZ country to actually want a rate hike. My european friends in other countries are horrified at what could happen. Could this hike talk be smoke and mirrors to force Portugal to cry uncle and come to the table. This month is a month of descisions for EZ. We could see an April/May timebomb go off like last year as EZ lookks damned if they do and damned if they don't. USA looks to be moving in the dare I say "right" position as QE2 will most certainly come off in June if not earlier as many conservatives are now...
it hurts german exports to the u.s. and any other country pegged to the usd. like china.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #401,335
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:36am Mar 4, 2011 9:36am
Quoting gatorinla
they are phucked.. with no place to turn..high hates will further dry up liquidity. and risk the whole system calasp. bb saved them in 2008, by passing the market with "in the middle of the night currency " hidden "swaps".. bb has more of a leash on him this time.

Absolutely.
  • #401,336
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:37am Mar 4, 2011 9:37am
Quoting pkimnyc
............. Donkeys were first domesticated around 4500 years ago and, at one time were a status symbol of their owners’ wealth, rather like a Rolls Royce is today....
After having driven a Rolls on a 400 mile journey many years ago for a former boss I can say it is a fair equivalent to a Donkey.

They sell very few for a reason and it's not the price.
  • #401,337
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:38am Mar 4, 2011 9:38am
Quoting cloggie
The dollar drop is overextended, we are getting close to the point that not many are willing to take the other side as there is too much at stake, once we see a good fundie trigger I will start looking for my next position trade, until then I just trade purely intraday just like you are. Bernanke will soon start voicing his support for a stronger dollar as that will curtail inflation at home and reduce commodity inflation worldwide, China pegged at the highest rate this week and will want the dollar to bounce also.

There are some very good opportunities...
working out side means I'm away when whether is nice would welcome any suggested reading on the topic. Keeping us in the Lupe as you have really helps.
  • #401,338
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:38am Mar 4, 2011 9:38am
Quoting cloggie
Nah, the weekly is not going to close on a high. Look back and see how often that really happens????? A better strategy if you want to trade in thin volumes here is selling the rallies for short scalps. That's my 2 cents.
Thank you sir. Been doing this since just before London close...
  • #401,339
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:40am Mar 4, 2011 9:40am
....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #401,340
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:40am Mar 4, 2011 9:40am
Quoting gatorinla
they are phucked.. with no place to turn..high hates will further dry up liquidity. and risk the whole system calasp. bb saved them in 2008, by passing the market with "in the middle of the night currency " hidden "swaps".. bb has more of a leash on him this time.
Has the IMF {even though completely funded by the U.S. for the most part} taken any stance on the 'future' loans to any Euro Nations?
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