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  • #461
  • Edited 5:57am Feb 28, 2011 5:56am | Edited 5:57am
This market is toying with me. Went short it rallied, came back to break even then went some more in my favour. Started coming back strong I exited and then wham it goes down. I am leaving it alone for now...

Still bearish though...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #462
  • Feb 28, 2011 7:08am Feb 28, 2011 7:08am
Quoting Olu
@3491 stop above the high of the day

cad data came out stronger than expected. so the usdcad hammer has turned into a full down candle now. Hopefully it will travel down hard...

olu
Well done, I was looking closely at CADJPY and went long after GDP data release, it is +20 so far.
  • #463
  • Feb 28, 2011 7:53am Feb 28, 2011 7:53am
Quoting Olu
This market is toying with me. Went short it rallied, came back to break even then went some more in my favour. Started coming back strong I exited and then wham it goes down. I am leaving it alone for now...

Still bearish though...
something i have learnt is that its better to be out of a trade wishing you were in, than in a trade wishing you were out. even if it is frustrating.
  • #464
  • Feb 28, 2011 8:37am Feb 28, 2011 8:37am
Quoting jimbo86
something i have learnt is that its better to be out of a trade wishing you were in, than in a trade wishing you were out. even if it is frustrating.
I hear you...

I read another thread on this forum 'equity millipede' and I tend to want to leg into positions. Hence it annoys me that most times i get the direction correct but the leg in does no amount to anything

We live to battle another time

Thanks Jimbo
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #465
  • Feb 28, 2011 11:43am Feb 28, 2011 11:43am
yes, to pick market direction is just part of the puzzle

there's also timing the entry as well as determining the lowest risk entry price,
on top of that there's trade management and stops

it's certainly a challenge to synch all these aspects and then do so repeatedly, month after month, year after year

...........it's a real skill to trade profitably into the future


Quoting Olu
I tend to want to leg into positions. Hence it annoys me that most times i get the direction correct but the leg in does no amount to anything
  • #466
  • Feb 28, 2011 1:22pm Feb 28, 2011 1:22pm
Quoting Olu
I hear you...

I read another thread on this forum 'equity millipede' and I tend to want to leg into positions. Hence it annoys me that most times i get the direction correct but the leg in does no amount to anything

We live to battle another time

Thanks Jimbo
Olu,

I tried millepede thing for almost a month but didn't work for me cos almost all the time I was stopped out at BE after going 100/200 +.....
  • #467
  • Feb 28, 2011 1:51pm Feb 28, 2011 1:51pm
Quoting PeterE
yes, to pick market direction is just part of the puzzle

there's also timing the entry as well as determining the lowest risk entry price,
on top of that there's trade management and stops

it's certainly a challenge to synch all these aspects and then do so repeatedly, month after month, year after year

...........it's a real skill to trade profitably into the future
It is a giant puzzle. However I am getting much better. I am sure that we'll all get there. Alll the contributors to this thread are cautious, technical and level headed - ingredients for successful trading. Some are already there. So guys let's keep on getting better.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #468
  • Feb 28, 2011 1:53pm Feb 28, 2011 1:53pm
Quoting Heliosdz
Well done, I was looking closely at CADJPY and went long after GDP data release, it is +20 so far.
Well done on the cadjpy trade. I am very happy with the outcome of mine. I am still in but might take it off tonight or tighten the stop.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #469
  • Feb 28, 2011 2:03pm Feb 28, 2011 2:03pm
Quoting deepleo
Olu,

I tried millepede thing for almost a month but didn't work for me cos almost all the time I was stopped out at BE after going 100/200 +.....
I am only interested in the millipede thing because of the outcome. My dream is to find that trend that continues for a looooooooooong time without drastic, position-shakout pullbacks and milk it for all it is worth. So that I even keep adding to existing positions. I understand that the millipede guy still has positions that are years running.

I am a systems scavenger. I have my own system but will rip up and utilise any other system that will make mine better. I move stops while he doesnt. He enters on the hourly I dont (cant anyway). However I love the concept of being able to maximise income from a trend

Enough of my ramble...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #470
  • Edited 3:26pm Feb 28, 2011 3:18pm | Edited 3:26pm
I have uploaded a daily chart of the chfjpy.

This pair has been strong lately because of fundamental issues that required a run to safety. It has gone to new heights but is turning.

Stoch is overbought and turning
last price action was an inside bar/candle after a massive bearish candle. A break of 8780 might be tradable...


inside candle/harami + overbought stoch (and turning down) might possibly equal a downside breakdown of price

Please not that this trade is counter-trend hence more risk.
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #471
  • Feb 28, 2011 3:32pm Feb 28, 2011 3:32pm
There appear to be a lot of counter trend trades all over the place. For example the yen pairs and the chf pairs.

A good friend of mine that looks in on this thread would not even like me talking about these but counter trends do work sometimes only that they are guaranteed to be more stressful, require more supervision and are usually altogether less profitable over time

Comments anyone?
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #472
  • Feb 28, 2011 3:56pm Feb 28, 2011 3:56pm
i'm all for the counter-trend trade

i have 2 set-ups whose pattern i've seen repeat many times, they are counter-trend and i will happily trade them

my pattern is not yet showing up on ChJ, that's not to say it wont go south, i just dont have a low risk short available at present

as for the other currencies, i havent yet analysed them
  • #473
  • Feb 28, 2011 5:53pm Feb 28, 2011 5:53pm
Quoting Olu
@3491 stop above the high of the day

cad data came out stronger than expected. so the usdcad hammer has turned into a full down candle now. Hopefully it will travel down hard...

olu
Half taken off @1.3420 (+71pips). Stop tightened on the rest
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #474
  • Feb 28, 2011 8:23pm Feb 28, 2011 8:23pm
GBPJPY B. 133.54, TP 134.49
*seems to be upward pressure on all JPY crosses as i write
*fingers crossed
  • #475
  • Feb 28, 2011 8:31pm Feb 28, 2011 8:31pm
any comments re buying EURCHF 1.2857ish?
  • #476
  • Feb 28, 2011 8:35pm Feb 28, 2011 8:35pm
GBPCHF may also be good for buying if price comes back to 1.5115ish, will be watching
  • #477
  • Mar 1, 2011 12:07am Mar 1, 2011 12:07am
Quoting PeterE
GBPJPY B. 133.54, TP 134.49
*seems to be upward pressure on all JPY crosses as i write
*fingers crossed
I woke up to see strength in the usdjpy. In fact things are settling down a bit - if we could say that.

As per gbpjpy this is the strongest jpy pair and you chose a good one to buy. Looking on the daily is a kind of bitter sweet to me. We have broken down according to the lines I put on the chart and we are tesdting that line. What is going to happen when we get there?

on the daily chart we are attacking the 100sma and the stoch has just turned up so we might have more room to the upside

On the 4hr we are now overbought so care must be taken. On the whole we are going up but we are close to the said line

on the whole it looks that the counter trades will rule today as I said in an earlier post

Good luck - get those pips
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy-4h-01032011-0755uk.jpg Size: 93 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy-daily-01032011-0755uk.jpg Size: 92 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #478
  • Mar 1, 2011 12:08am Mar 1, 2011 12:08am
GBPAUD looks good for a buy @ 1.6021ish,
if I can get AUDUSD to start dropping
  • #479
  • Mar 1, 2011 12:09am Mar 1, 2011 12:09am
Quoting PeterE
any comments re buying EURCHF 1.2857ish?
Love it. Its counter trend trades all the way today...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #480
  • Mar 1, 2011 12:14am Mar 1, 2011 12:14am
EURCHF is now off my buy list, so that's your signal to buy, buy, buy

Quoting Olu
Love it. Its counter trend trades all the way today...
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