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  • #681
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:44am Feb 1, 2011 8:44am
Check out the new execution center FXCM launched yesterday! http://www.fxcm.com/forex-execution-center.jsp

http://img207.imageshack.us/img207/3...er21201111.png

  • #682
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:38am Feb 3, 2011 10:38am
Tomorrow is NFP, and caution should always be used when trading around this number or any news event. If you do plan to trade, just be aware that limit and limit entry orders with FXCM can experience price improvement (or positive slippage). So if you have a limit order in to take profit or an limit entry to fade the initial move, you could be filled at a better price than what you requested (dependent on liquidity of course). Here's a video we put together detailing how price improvements can result in better price execution during news events:

Inserted Video


Back to NFP, analyst estimates are calling for an increase of 140k jobs during the month of January. A positive number is good, but 140k is not the type of job growth the economy needs to chip away at the unemployment already present in the economy. According to this AP article covering Bernanke's speech today, "Job-creation would need to be twice as fast each month to make a noticeable dent in unemployment." http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...c94818749acd4b . Here's a look at NFP results each month since January 2009 (graph courtesy of data360.org):

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/5473/...2320111274.png



On a side note, for those of you who have been trading gold...I would recommend reading the recent FT article on China's gold buying. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f79b1824-2...#axzz1CvCL24eL Very interesting in that they mention precious metals traders have been stunned by the amount of Chinese gold buying which has been 200 tonnes in 3 months. The same amount was imported by Chinese buyers in 10 months last year. Demand in China seems to be strong....
  • #683
  • Feb 6, 2011 11:28am Feb 6, 2011 11:28am
Hello Jason,

Im trying to send you a private message for the signals from DailyFx on MT4 platforms, but im not being able due to being a junior member. Please note i have a live account with FXCM and would like to benefit from the signals directly into my MT4 platform. I would really appreciate it if you can guide me through it.

Loai
  • #684
  • Feb 7, 2011 1:36pm Feb 7, 2011 1:36pm
Quoting lkdahleh
Hello Jason,

Im trying to send you a private message for the signals from DailyFx on MT4 platforms, but im not being able due to being a junior member. Please note i have a live account with FXCM and would like to benefit from the signals directly into my MT4 platform. I would really appreciate it if you can guide me through it.

Loai
Hi Loai,

Thanks for the post and welcome to the thread!

The DailyFX+ signals are available for automation exclusively through the Strategy Trader platform, and we don't plan to make it available on the MT4 platform since we plan to make it exclusively available for FXCM clients using Strategy Trader.

The layout on Strategy Trader is similar to MT4 so it should be fairly easy to learn the new platform. David Rodriguez put together a video explaining how to install and setup the signals on Strategy Trader to help, http://www.blip.tv/file/4615546.

I would also recommend the video for anyone interested in learning more about SSI or the trading methodology behind the individual strategies. SSI is discussed 9:40 minutes into the video, and the strategies are discussed individually 14:00 minutes into the video.

-Jason
  • #685
  • Feb 7, 2011 8:40pm Feb 7, 2011 8:40pm
strategy trader cant use hedging account.
  • #686
  • Feb 8, 2011 6:36am Feb 8, 2011 6:36am
Quoting MoreYummy
strategy trader cant use hedging account.
That is true. In order to use Strategy Trader, you would first need to disable hedging through www.myfxcm.com.

If you wanted to run multiple strategies on the same currency pair, the best option would be to open a sub-account so that a long position from one signal would not cause a potential conflict with a short position from another signal.
  • #687
  • Feb 8, 2011 2:01pm Feb 8, 2011 2:01pm
A new build (331) has been released for Strategy Trader. The platform will not auto-update, so you need to uninstall/reinstall in order to get the new build. Here's the link to download http://www.fxcm.com/download/StrategyTrader.exe

-Jason
  • #688
  • Feb 9, 2011 8:19am Feb 9, 2011 8:19am
Two important events to watch out for over the next 24 hours:

AUD Employment Change: Thursday at 00:30 GMT (Wednesday 7:30pm ET)

The employment figured being released today is expected to show an increase in jobs of 20k and for the unemployment rate to remain at 5.0%. This could be a very interesting release to watch considering the recent flooding and cyclones hitting Australia, plus AUD/USD is still very near the previous high set on the last day of 2010. Take a look at this daily chart...possible head and shoulders/triple top?

http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/6...11110318am.png


Take a look at Michael Wright's article on the upcoming employment change release. Michael is watching the 1.0110 level as a critical support level for AUD/USD.


Bank of England Rate Decision: Thursday at 12:00 GMT (7:00am ET)

DailyFX expects rates to remain the same but for certain board members to vote in favor of a rate hike which could cause a bullish GBP/USD reactions. Here's what David Song has to say in his article on trading the BOE rate decision:

The Bank of England is widely expected to retain its current policy in February, but currency traders may show another bullish reaction to the rate decision as they speculate the central bank to gradually normalize monetary policy this year. We expect board member Andrew Sentance and Martin Weale to push for another 25bp rate this month given the stickiness in price growth, while Adam Posen is likely to vote for a GBP 50B expansion in quantitative easing as the tough austerity measures bear down on the economic recovery.


Looking more longer term, Jamie Saettele, David Rodriguez and Ilya Spivak are calling for GBP/USD weakness, and FXCM's traders seem to be equally confused with this morning's SSI positioning show 50% of positions are long and 50% of positions are short

http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/5...11111801am.png

  • #689
  • Feb 10, 2011 12:06pm Feb 10, 2011 12:06pm
DailyFX release their weekly SSI report today, and GBP/JPY seems to be one of the more interesting setups in my opinion. SSI positioning is currently net short at -7.68. This means there are 7.68 short positions for every long position, or looking at it another way, 88% of traders are short. Below is the long term SSI chat. A green bar indicates net long positioning and red indicates net short positioning:

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...Picture_11.png


The only signal open on GBP/JPY at the moment is Momentum2, and the market is currently trading near the entry level in the signal:

http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/6...1020113033.png

  • #690
  • Feb 14, 2011 6:12am Feb 14, 2011 6:12am
What is the mathematical formula used to calculate the SSI?

What is the difference between SSI = -1 and SSI = 1?

Why did you not decide to simply use percentages?

When will the SSI be available in Strategy Trader? In June and July 2010 on a few other forums or blogs you stated that it may be available in one, two or three months.
  • #691
  • Feb 15, 2011 4:21am Feb 15, 2011 4:21am
Quoting Hyper
What is the mathematical formula used to calculate the SSI?
Would the following be the correct derivation of the SSI?:

b = number of buy positions
s = number of sell positions
ratio = b / s
if ratio < 1 then SSI = -1 / ratio
else SSI = ratio

If this is correct then there would never be an SSI that is between -1 and 1.
  • #692
  • Feb 15, 2011 8:58am Feb 15, 2011 8:58am
Quoting Hyper
What is the mathematical formula used to calculate the SSI?

What is the difference between SSI = -1 and SSI = 1?

Why did you not decide to simply use percentages?

When will the SSI be available in Strategy Trader? In June and July 2010 on a few other forums or blogs you stated that it may be available in one, two or three months.
Hi Hyper,

A reading of exactly 1 would indicate even positioning between long and short positions. For example, if there are 100 positions long and 100 positions short (100/100) that indicates a positioning of 1. If the positioning is 100 positions long and 101 positions short, it would be a negative reading of -1.01.

The percentage reading (as opposed to ratio) is also listed in the daily SSI releases, but exactly why the decision was made to use a ratio rather than a percentage in the actual graph is probably a better question to ask David Rodriguez of DailyFX ([email protected]). SSI has always been displayed as a ratio for the 6+ years I have been with FXCM, and David is the resident DailyFX expert on the SSI indicator.

The automated DailyFX+ trading signals are going to be released first for Strategy Trader since we received the most requests for this. As far as releasing the SSI indicator being added directly into Strategy Trader...not sure about a timeframe since the DailyFX+ signals have taken a priority, but I will ask about the SSI indicator release once the DFX+ signals are fully rolled out.

-Jason
  • #693
  • Feb 15, 2011 1:41pm Feb 15, 2011 1:41pm
Quoting Hyper
Would the following be the correct derivation of the SSI?:

b = number of buy positions
s = number of sell positions
ratio = b / s
if ratio < 1 then SSI = -1 / ratio
else SSI = ratio

If this is correct then there would never be an SSI that is between -1 and 1.
Hi Hyper,

Missed the second post

You're absolutely correct. You'll never see a ratio between -1 and 1.
  • #694
  • Feb 15, 2011 2:01pm Feb 15, 2011 2:01pm
I had to do a double take just now when looking at the GBP/JPY SSI data. A whopping 94% of positions in the SSI measure are currently short GBP/JPY! AND GBP/JPY comprises 26% of the total open interest. For the sake of these traders, I hope GBP/JPY goes down, but trading on hope is a dangerous strategy.

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/5349/...01144559pm.png



The momentum signal is currently long, though the signal is on hold. Whereas the range signal is currently short probably anticipating a retracement of today's move.

http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2...01145649pm.png

  • #695
  • Edited 10:34pm Feb 15, 2011 5:52pm | Edited 10:34pm
Thanks for the responses, Jason. I hope to see SSI in the Strategy Trader platform soon. In the meantime I will use Oanda's open position ratios as it updates every 20 minutes.

That -14.55 value looks a little suspicious. It certainly does not look right on the graph, as the length of the bar is far shorter than the 7.31 bar of USD/CAD. Is the value actually correct? I do recall in the past that sometimes the numbers or analysis in the SSI report have been erroneous.
  • #696
  • Feb 16, 2011 6:22am Feb 16, 2011 6:22am
Quoting Hyper
That -14.55 value looks a little suspicious. It certainly does not look right on the graph, as the length of the bar is far shorter than the 7.31 bar of USD/CAD. Is the value actually correct?
The ratio has moved down a little as of this mornings update from -14.55 to -13.52 this morning. The bars are not proportional since a longer bar on GBP/JPY would make the bars on the major pairs and the numbers extremely small and hard to read. I'll check with DailyFX to see if they want to put a note on the graph that it may not be drawn to scale.

Quote
I do recall in the past that sometimes the numbers or analysis in the SSI report have been erroneous.

I'm not familiar with this. Can you put a link to details where this has been the case?

-Jason
  • #697
  • Feb 16, 2011 7:13pm Feb 16, 2011 7:13pm
Quoting Jason Rogers
I'm not familiar with this. Can you put a link to details where this has been the case?
Look at the latest SSI report.

It states:
Quote
USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 7.15
However the graph shows USD/CAD SSI is 8.75.

It is obvious that the report is manually created by someone each time, and so is prone to human error. That is one reason to why it would be far better to have SSI as an indicator in the platform so that it is fully automated. There can still be reports that are manually written, but that should be for analysis and commentary, not for release of numbers. The latest reports have no real commentary in them anyway, just a template line for each currency pair that could have been better presented in tabular format.
  • #698
  • Feb 17, 2011 6:52am Feb 17, 2011 6:52am
Quoting Hyper
Look at the latest SSI report.

It states:

However the graph shows USD/CAD SSI is 8.75.

It is obvious that the report is manually created by someone each time, and so is prone to human error. That is one reason to why it would be far better to have SSI as an indicator in the platform so that it is fully automated. There can still be reports that are manually written, but that should be for analysis and commentary,...
Hi Hyper,

Thanks for pointing out this example. I have brought it to DailyFX's attention so we can ensure these types of errors between what is listed in the table and what is written in the write-up do not happen. Thanks again!

-Jason
  • #699
  • Feb 17, 2011 7:01am Feb 17, 2011 7:01am
Bernanke is speaking in front of the US Senate Banking Committee in just a few minutes, and we have a wave of US economic data being released. This could cause an increase in volatility during the remainder of NY trading sessions. Here's a setup on the EUR/USD 4 hour chart that Michael Wright mentioned in his latest article this morning.

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...ody_eurusd.png

  • #700
  • Feb 23, 2011 1:17pm Feb 23, 2011 1:17pm
USD/CHF is testing important lows, and traders are piling into the long positions trying to pick this bottom. The previous all time low was reached on January 31 of this year when it touched 0.92992 and today it got as low as 0.93066. The latest SSI positioning data from this afternoon showed a reading of 7.06 meaning there were 7.06 long positions for every short position. Or looking at it another way, 84% of open positions were long.

http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/8...01140424pm.png


Looking at a daily chart of USD/CHF, you get a very clear picture of the support level these long positions are trading off of.

http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/9...01141533pm.png

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