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GBP/USD - one trade a day

  • #141
  • Jan 26, 2011 1:01am Jan 26, 2011 1:01am
LONG today:

profitable, closed at 1.5819, 31 pips profit.

Overall after 3 days of testing, I am up at about 3% profit in January.
  • #142
  • Edited 6:15am Jan 26, 2011 2:52am | Edited 6:15am
Today was good for about 37 pips (+ 3.87%).

For tomorrow:

Target = 5.81%
r:r = 1:2.23
Pip target = 47 pips

As expected, the discussion about the system itself has begun to wind down, due mostly to its simplicity.

For February, I will stop posting results in this thread, assuming anyone who is interested now understands the concept. I will open a journal thread and link to it in this one for further tracking of results. For the remaining 3 trading days in January, I will post the last results here.
  • #143
  • Jan 26, 2011 6:41am Jan 26, 2011 6:41am
Quoting cgrey
Today was good for about 37 pips (+ 3.87%).

For tomorrow:

Target = 5.81%
r:r = 1:2.23
Pip target = 47 pips

As expected, the discussion about the system itself has begun to wind down, due mostly to its simplicity.

For February, I will stop posting results in this thread, assuming anyone who is interested now understands the concept. I will open a journal thread and link to it in this one for further tracking of results. For the remaining 3 trading days in January, I will post the last results here.
Hello cgrey!

I think you have more followers than you think. I know I have been following this. Unfortunately due to the time I am not able to trade this particular pair, however I am testing the method and money management part on other pairs. I will post a few things later when I have a little more time. For now I have to step away for a bit. Take care.
  • #144
  • Jan 26, 2011 6:48am Jan 26, 2011 6:48am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Hello cgrey!

I think you have more followers than you think. I know I have been following this. Unfortunately due to the time I am not able to trade this particular pair, however I am testing the method and money management part on other pairs. I will post a few things later when I have a little more time. For now I have to step away for a bit. Take care.
I'm not at all complaining that this thread isn't "busy'. In fact, I kind of like it this way - I don't want to have to spend all day in the forums, and I certainly have nothing to prove to anyone but myself.

This method doesn't warrant a lot of discussion... There's no room for interpretation. Nobody has to worry about "did this RSI really cross" or "this indicator repaints". All you need to know is what time is it, is the current price higher or lower than it was 8 hours ago, and how much of the monthly target is left. When you have these three pieces, trade!

The thread will always be here if there is a question or need to discuss. But I think it is definitely transitioning more to a journal to keep track of trades at this point.
  • #145
  • Jan 26, 2011 5:56pm Jan 26, 2011 5:56pm
Just a quick thank you Cgray. As a new trader (not even live yet) this thread has been very helpful. I have not and may not trade the pair that you are but your trading philosophy and MM topics have been very insightful.
  • #146
  • Jan 26, 2011 8:04pm Jan 26, 2011 8:04pm
Quoting vullkem116
Just a quick thank you Cgray. As a new trader (not even live yet) this thread has been very helpful. I have not and may not trade the pair that you are but your trading philosophy and MM topics have been very insightful.
I'm glad you've taken something from this, and that you are taking THE RIGHT things.

There is a lot to learn should you choose to get serious about investing. Most importantly, though, is to develop a plan and keep at it. That said, you will likely spend your first year or more "chasing" the perfect system. You know it's out there... And as time goes on, you'll likely come to the realization that there is no such thing (perfect system). It's part of the learning process. But don't ever lose sight of your goals. Education is critical. Even if/when you find a system based on indicators that may work well for you, understand WHY it works, and don't just follow in blindly. You can and will achieve so much more success with a little knowledge beyond "buy when a green arrow appears and sell when a red one does"...

Best of luck to you.
  • #147
  • Jan 26, 2011 8:26pm Jan 26, 2011 8:26pm
Quoting cgrey
I'm not at all complaining that this thread isn't "busy'. In fact, I kind of like it this way - I don't want to have to spend all day in the forums, and I certainly have nothing to prove to anyone but myself.

This method doesn't warrant a lot of discussion... There's no room for interpretation. Nobody has to worry about "did this RSI really cross" or "this indicator repaints". All you need to know is what time is it, is the current price higher or lower than it was 8 hours ago, and how much of the monthly target is left. When you have...
Hello cgrey. You are correct, you only have to prove to yourself, but I can tell you that you have gotten my admiration. I appreciate what you have shared thus far and look forward to checking in on this thread and seeing how the trades progress. I agree the thread is better when it's not busy. Makes it easy to follow and keep up to date - just like the strategy! Take care.
  • #148
  • Jan 26, 2011 10:14pm Jan 26, 2011 10:14pm
Quoting cgrey
Trading is knowing the "big picture", and understanding the real reason why EU has been moving up the past two weeks (and it isn't because it touched a weekly trendline). Trading is living and breathing the markets, and how they inter-relate. Being a professional trader is knowing the answer if you ran in to someone on the street and they asked "which has been stronger since the beginning of the year this year, the pound or the yen"? - without looking at a chart, can anyone reading this answer that question right now? I'm sure there are a few......
Hi cgrey,
This is my first post on FF and the above quote is the reason.
I have been a lurker here for a few years, and I really got into a thread on macro fundamentals by Razorjack here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=216097

I started reading the books he suggested, particularly Intermarket analysis by Ashrief Lidl (spelling off the top of my head) Trader Vic books, and The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith.
Can you give me any pointers to any more books of this kind?
You mentioned understanding the markets, but what I need are more resources so that I can understand. Are you willing to share any book titles, pdfs or websites?

I am just beginning to appreciate the importance of different methods of money management. Did you come up with this method yourself, or can you give me any pointers to somewhere (book, website etc.) where ther are examples of different MM methods?

I don't expect you to hold my hand, I realise that I must do the studying myself, but if you could maybe wave you're hand in the right direction, it would be much appreciated.

Keep up the good work, and all the best for your trading in the future.

Alan
  • #149
  • Jan 26, 2011 11:48pm Jan 26, 2011 11:48pm
Hi Cgrey,

Very interesting thread; thank you.
If at 8 am the price has a difference of only a few points(less than 10 pips, for example) with that of 00 am do you nevertheless trade?
Thank you on advance for your answer.
  • #150
  • Jan 27, 2011 12:15am Jan 27, 2011 12:15am
Hi cgrey,
so today trade is long right?
  • #151
  • Jan 27, 2011 1:01am Jan 27, 2011 1:01am
long hit SL
  • #152
  • Jan 27, 2011 3:00am Jan 27, 2011 3:00am
Stopped out today (-20 pips) for -2.12%

For tomorrow:

Target = 8.02%
r:r = 1:3.208
Pip target= 64 pips
  • #153
  • Jan 27, 2011 3:48am Jan 27, 2011 3:48am
Quoting 1again
Hi cgrey,
This is my first post on FF and the above quote is the reason.
I have been a lurker here for a few years, and I really got into a thread on macro fundamentals by Razorjack here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=216097

I started reading the books he suggested, particularly Intermarket analysis by Ashrief Lidl (spelling off the top of my head) Trader Vic books, and The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith.
Can you give me any pointers to any more books of this kind?
You mentioned understanding the markets, but...
Hi,

The one book I have read (several times, and still refer to) that is specifically about trading is Mark Douglas' "Trading in the zone". I don't know if that was on the other thread's list (I didn't read the other thread).

In your shoes, I would make one of the very first steps of my journey an economics class at your local community college. Aside from getting a fundamental understanding, if you have a knowledgeable professor, he or she can become a valuable resource to you.

A good book to start (though very basic) is "The Complete Idiot's Guide to Global Economics" by Craig Hovey. This book will teach you absolutely nothing about trading, but will help you start to understand how the "big picture" works, and how economies in countries around the world impact each other.

Websites... My day hasn't begun until I've had a look at marketwatch (http://www.marketwatch.com/), and I generally read both the front page and "markets" page. I have also learned a tremendous amount right here a Forex Factory. But, lately it is harder and harder to find threads that are helpful. The "trading systems" section is probably NOT where you want to be, but rather "rookie discussion" and "trading discussion" are you best bet to find good information. "Trading systems" will lead you to one thread after another filled with charts loaded with indicators that you will learn absolutely nothing from (other than how to tell for sure if something is really red or green). The people starting the threads will often be "rookies" themselves, convinced that they've found the "holy grail" system, and want the world to know that they were the one who discovered the best thing ever. But you won't learn much more from them other than how great they think they are. Not in all cases, of course, but far more often than not. You'll quickly learn to spot those you can learn from and those that are just blowing their own horns by presenting their "system".

Opinions will differ on this topic, but in my opinion at least, learning how to react when RSI moved up over 50 isn't something that will have a lot of value for you. But learning to watch for conditions in the markets that will impact currencies (which is where studying sites like marketwatch and watching your forex charts simultaneously) is what will make you successful.

Hope this has helped at least a little.
  • #154
  • Jan 27, 2011 3:49am Jan 27, 2011 3:49am
Quoting jeff75
Hi Cgrey,

Very interesting thread; thank you.
If at 8 am the price has a difference of only a few points(less than 10 pips, for example) with that of 00 am do you nevertheless trade?
Thank you on advance for your answer.
Since I'm trading this automatically, yes, I trade any difference in price (even if it were 0.1 pip). Even if I were trading it manually, I'd do the same. That said, feel free to experiment - if you think it could improve results by only executing the trade if it is "x" pips different or higher, see how works out...
  • #155
  • Jan 27, 2011 3:49am Jan 27, 2011 3:49am
Quoting microsuck_36
Hi cgrey,
so today trade is long right?
Yes, today was long and stopped out.
  • #156
  • Jan 27, 2011 4:09am Jan 27, 2011 4:09am
Now is probably also a good time to note...

ALL of my opinions come from the perspective of trading for a living, not as a hobby.

For some, many probably, it simply won't be possible to put in all the time and effort... Especially for those working full time jobs. I've mentioned several times that trading is a "business" (if you're doing it professionally). Business owners often work 12 / 14 / 16 hours a day. The same is true for "professional" traders. It can be very difficult to invest this kind of time when you have a full time job to worry about.

I'm not at all suggesting anyone quit their job to start trading. But realize that most of what I've been running on about here has been from this perspective. For many, becoming a "really good" indicator trader, which still requires an investment of time (though not as intense) is the first step. Building confidence there will lead to that decision about going full-time later.

For me, it wasn't as much of a choice. I found myself unemployed as a result of downsizing, and that was the opportunity I needed to put in my time. It probably wouldn't have happened (yet) had it not been for that.
  • #157
  • Edited 5:54am Jan 27, 2011 5:39am | Edited 5:54am
Quoting 1again
I am just beginning to appreciate the importance of different methods of money management. Did you come up with this method yourself, or can you give me any pointers to somewhere (book, website etc.) where ther are examples of different MM methods?
Sorry I missed this part, Alan... I was actually dealing with getting my son ready for school while trying to respond. What we're doing for money management with this system is really nothing more than a hybrid of a couple of "best practices" as I like to think of them. Always have a higher reward than risk. Preferably a minimum of 1:2. I generally shoot for at least 1:4 in my trading, and I will absolutely NEVER enter a trade with less than a 1:2 potential. Also, always have a target, and stop when you reach it - also known as "Capital Preservation". Money management in my opinion, is not about "how much can I win". It is about how do I not lose, and if I have to lose, how do I minimize those losses. The best way to not lose is to not trade. So when my target is reached, I'm done. I apply that to some degree in my "real" trading as well, but it is a little more discretionary than I've laid it out for this particular system, because I feel it has to be. This system will have strings of winners and losers. We're capitalizing on hitting just a few winners in a row to get to our monthly target, and then we stop before those few losers in a row. Again, with this system really not being based on any true "market conditions", I personally have a lot less confidence in any individual trade - so we compensate for that with a low risk:reward factor, and minimize risk even further by quitting when we're ahead. We know from history that this candle is capable of producing 50/60/70 even 80 pips sometimes. So, by limiting our loss to 20, and taking the 50+ when we can get them, we get an advantage. But here also, we stop when this candle closes and take whatever we have. And the truth is, if we let it go and closed only at TP or SL, this system wouldn't work (failed miserably in my backtesting, in fact).
  • #158
  • Jan 27, 2011 6:12am Jan 27, 2011 6:12am
Quoting 1again
Hi cgrey,
This is my first post on FF and the above quote is the reason.
I have been a lurker here for a few years, and I really got into a thread on macro fundamentals by Razorjack here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=216097
I've read the first page of this thread, and will devote some time this week to seeing more of it. He and I trade very similarly from what I've seen so far, and he seems is WAY better at "teaching" this and presenting it than I can ever hope to be. I wish I was able to properly present most stuff that is in my head.

I will study some more, but for anyone who wants to get a general idea of how I am trading, have a look here. When I get caught up with it, I will probably share some thoughts in that thread.
  • #159
  • Jan 27, 2011 10:43am Jan 27, 2011 10:43am
Quoting cgrey
I've read the first page of this thread, and will devote some time this week to seeing more of it. He and I trade very similarly from what I've seen so far, and he seems is WAY better at "teaching" this and presenting it than I can ever hope to be. I wish I was able to properly present most stuff that is in my head.

I will study some more, but for anyone who wants to get a general idea of how I am trading, have a look here. When I get caught up with it, I will probably share some thoughts in that thread.
I'm up to page 4 of the above-mentioned thread. It is pure gold. In my opinion, one of the top 10 (maybe even top 5) threads on the entire FF site. And the simillarities I've seen so far between him and myself are amazing - right down to parts of our background and overall philosophies. Funny, too, that this was right around the time I had made the switch to fulltime, and I was putting in so much time outside of FF that I had never discovered this thread. It would have been SOOOO helpful to me at the time, and there are still pieces of it today that have great value to me.

I also "cheated" and looked at the last page just to see where things are today, and it seems the thread starter has left the building. I suppose I'll come to why in the next few pages, and I hope it doesn't end up being like so many others and start deteriorating in to battles between members instead of constructive conversation.

Whatever the case - go read the first few page of this thread now. If you're serious about going this route with your trading, it will be hard to find more valuable information. Thanks for directing us to it, Alan!
  • #160
  • Jan 27, 2011 11:29am Jan 27, 2011 11:29am
Spot on!

Quoting cgrey
The "trading systems" section is probably NOT where you want to be, but rather "rookie discussion" and "trading discussion" are you best bet to find good information. "Trading systems" will lead you to one thread after another filled with charts loaded with indicators that you will learn absolutely nothing from (other than how to tell for sure if something is really red or green). The people starting the threads will often be "rookies" themselves, convinced that they've found the "holy grail" system, and want the world to know that they were the one who discovered the best thing ever.
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