No trades yet for me this year, perhaps today we'll see how things go. All the best to the regulars and lurkers for 2011.
Learn your business, get a plan, trade it.
I got this pm.
I was hoping you could recommend a website for learning price action bars? I want to use them in conjunction with the trend magic indicator and H/L/H sequences.
Also couple of questions.
How do you determine what is a valie lower high? I've had several entries where I enter because it looks like a lower high. Just to have price reverse and go back anyway.
Also, where do you enter using lower highs? After the lower high is established? Or after it has past the last lower low and on its way to makinganother lower low?
There are a couple of links on blog on candles and chart patterns. On chart patterns theres a few good ones, one I like are morning/evening stars. The good news theres only a few reversal candles/patterns to watch out for. Eyevoltage uses flags to great effect in psych levels, pivots and trendlines thread. Also see James 16 thread in commercial section on candles. I'll attach a summary someone posted there. You'll see on the attachment all the examples show candles that have little/no wick in the direction of trade. Apart from dojis I've been harping on that for ages.You can also look here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=273028 . You'll get a lot of info on candles from the above sources. Try and see what candles/patterns you catch and can react to (we don't all see the same things).
On trades going wrong. See page 1, 1st retracement is best trade, everything after that carries greater risk.
You also need to be aware that certain times of day are very risky.
If trading 7.30 am gmt ie before London open we don't take a trade in same direction. Statistically its a very low win % trade as that time often has a reversal. So we would look there for counter trend hl/lh entries.
On the same note with London open price can run 30/40 pips and set up for a hl/lh move only to fail quickly and reverse. This is known as London open head fake and again we are looking for reversals (happens something like 75% of time). This LO can take a 15 min candle to reverse.
Once London has had its move it can stall pre US session, that stall can take 1-2 hours to reverse so whilst in and around LO a 15 min candle can cause move early US takes much longer and we won't jump in with a 15 min reversal candle no matter how good it looks.
Also look here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=232466 for trades on break of 2 point in 1 2 3 set up.
Valid hl/lh. Again see pics in 1st post, if those set ups happen and I have some help from 1hr and 15 min (see above when I'll use them above) I have a valid set up. NB I will take time of day and key area (psych level, pivot etc) into account.
When I enter. NB sorry but the pics on page 1 and the link to attached thread have different references to 1 2 3 points, sorry if that gets confusing. If my 15 min and 1hr agree per rules I'll look to enter the first positive close candle that has little/no upper wick and price goes 1 pip above candles high when buying. So from diagram price must go 1 pip above the candle with x. If 15 min is not lining up and I'm concerned entry will be above candle marked 3 (the traditional break of 2 point in 1 2 3 set up sorry again that this pic has different numbers).
I think I've covered everything.
Show pics on trade that go wrong its actually the best way to learn.
Cheers
V
Learn your business, get a plan, trade it.
I got this pm.
I was hoping you could recommend a website for learning price action bars? I want to use them in conjunction with the trend magic indicator and H/L/H sequences.
Also couple of questions.
How do you determine what is a valie lower high? I've had several entries where I enter because it looks like a lower high. Just to have price reverse and go back anyway.
Also, where do you enter using lower highs? After the lower high is established? Or after it has past the last lower low and on its way to makinganother lower low?
There are a couple of links on blog on candles and chart patterns. On chart patterns theres a few good ones, one I like are morning/evening stars. The good news theres only a few reversal candles/patterns to watch out for. Eyevoltage uses flags to great effect in psych levels, pivots and trendlines thread. Also see James 16 thread in commercial section on candles. I'll attach a summary someone posted there. You'll see on the attachment all the examples show candles that have little/no wick in the direction of trade. Apart from dojis I've been harping on that for ages.You can also look here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=273028 . You'll get a lot of info on candles from the above sources. Try and see what candles/patterns you catch and can react to (we don't all see the same things).
On trades going wrong. See page 1, 1st retracement is best trade, everything after that carries greater risk.
You also need to be aware that certain times of day are very risky.
If trading 7.30 am gmt ie before London open we don't take a trade in same direction. Statistically its a very low win % trade as that time often has a reversal. So we would look there for counter trend hl/lh entries.
On the same note with London open price can run 30/40 pips and set up for a hl/lh move only to fail quickly and reverse. This is known as London open head fake and again we are looking for reversals (happens something like 75% of time). This LO can take a 15 min candle to reverse.
Once London has had its move it can stall pre US session, that stall can take 1-2 hours to reverse so whilst in and around LO a 15 min candle can cause move early US takes much longer and we won't jump in with a 15 min reversal candle no matter how good it looks.
Also look here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=232466 for trades on break of 2 point in 1 2 3 set up.
Valid hl/lh. Again see pics in 1st post, if those set ups happen and I have some help from 1hr and 15 min (see above when I'll use them above) I have a valid set up. NB I will take time of day and key area (psych level, pivot etc) into account.
When I enter. NB sorry but the pics on page 1 and the link to attached thread have different references to 1 2 3 points, sorry if that gets confusing. If my 15 min and 1hr agree per rules I'll look to enter the first positive close candle that has little/no upper wick and price goes 1 pip above candles high when buying. So from diagram price must go 1 pip above the candle with x. If 15 min is not lining up and I'm concerned entry will be above candle marked 3 (the traditional break of 2 point in 1 2 3 set up sorry again that this pic has different numbers).
I think I've covered everything.
Show pics on trade that go wrong its actually the best way to learn.
Cheers
V
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Attached Images
