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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #4,861
  • Dec 21, 2010 7:21pm Dec 21, 2010 7:21pm
Just an update of what we thought and what has happened
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  • #4,862
  • Dec 21, 2010 7:30pm Dec 21, 2010 7:30pm
U/J: prediction of the next move on U/J is not better than tossing a coin.
if I have to pick one side, I pick up.
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  • #4,863
  • Dec 22, 2010 3:01am Dec 22, 2010 3:01am
Shahab,

Great thread, also trading based on COT reports for long term trades so would like to join your posts if you don't mind.

At the moment looking to build S&P short position, traders have been building up their short for a while now, while market moved higher, should start heading down sometime soon.

My 2 cents,

Tx
  • #4,864
  • Dec 22, 2010 4:58am Dec 22, 2010 4:58am
price pattern time
about price:
price arrived to fibo zone (88.6 ret and 161 app)

pattern : make bat

time : price move down with 44 bars and goes up with 90 bars(near the 161 tcr)

If market make selling pressure we can oppen postion
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show me the money
  • #4,865
  • Dec 22, 2010 9:35am Dec 22, 2010 9:35am
I agree with you, I'm currently short but she's as stubborn as a donkey.

As stated in the FX positioning report posted by Shahab a few days ago, "Investors picked the AUD over the CAD to express greater appetite for risk and this has consequently pushed long AUD positions to the highest level since Oct 26 (53,800 contracts)."

When I see the falls of EUR and GBP against the dollar, I guess it's all about AUD strenght now.

Wait and see.

Quoting majid.hesari
price pattern time
about price:
price arrived to fibo zone (88.6 ret and 161 app)

pattern : make bat

time : price move down with 44 bars and goes up with 90 bars(near the 161 tcr)

If market make selling pressure we can oppen postion
Hello.
  • #4,866
  • Dec 22, 2010 9:56am Dec 22, 2010 9:56am
The no brainer of the day
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Hello.
  • #4,867
  • Dec 22, 2010 2:06pm Dec 22, 2010 2:06pm
Quoting emene
The no brainer of the day
I'm impressed !!! The same here.
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  • #4,868
  • Dec 22, 2010 11:48pm Dec 22, 2010 11:48pm
Quoting emene
I agree with you, I'm currently short but she's as stubborn as a donkey.

As stated in the FX positioning report posted by Shahab a few days ago, "Investors picked the AUD over the CAD to express greater appetite for risk and this has consequently pushed long AUD positions to the highest level since Oct 26 (53,800 contracts)."

When I see the falls of EUR and GBP against the dollar, I guess it's all about AUD strenght now.

Wait and see.
Did not trigger
pattern is fail i did not oppen postion
show me the money
  • #4,869
  • Dec 23, 2010 1:53am Dec 23, 2010 1:53am
hello guys
in gbpjpy :

the bullish gurtly is made and price goes up in 19 days but move down in 24 days but can not make new bottom and have good time zone between 61.8 TCR and 100 ATP

but we need very strong trigger because CD move down very sharp
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show me the money
  • #4,870
  • Dec 23, 2010 3:12am Dec 23, 2010 3:12am
Yes, I managed to escape on a small retracement before the test higher. Here is an update.

Quoting majid.hesari
Did not trigger
pattern is fail i did not oppen postion
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Hello.
  • #4,871
  • Edited 7:25am Dec 23, 2010 7:10am | Edited 7:25am
Retest coming ! (Beware of news)
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Hello.
  • #4,872
  • Dec 23, 2010 7:56am Dec 23, 2010 7:56am
Quoting emene
Yes, I managed to escape on a small retracement before the test higher. Here is an update.
Why fighting the trend? when Aussie is in long mode it's quite predictable
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  • #4,873
  • Dec 23, 2010 7:57am Dec 23, 2010 7:57am
Quoting emene
Retest coming ! (Beware of news)
Excellent call
  • #4,874
  • Dec 23, 2010 8:03am Dec 23, 2010 8:03am
Quoting zek132
Shahab,

Great thread, also trading based on COT reports for long term trades so would like to join your posts if you don't mind.

At the moment looking to build S&P short position, traders have been building up their short for a while now, while market moved higher, should start heading down sometime soon.

My 2 cents,

Tx
Welcome zek132,
I dont like the COT on S&P , may be you can keep us posted on your trade
  • #4,875
  • Dec 23, 2010 8:04am Dec 23, 2010 8:04am
Quoting majid.hesari
hello guys
in gbpjpy :

the bullish gurtly is made and price goes up in 19 days but move down in 24 days but can not make new bottom and have good time zone between 61.8 TCR and 100 ATP

but we need very strong trigger because CD move down very sharp
I like the harmony in this set up , well done on the pattern
  • #4,876
  • Dec 23, 2010 8:07am Dec 23, 2010 8:07am
Question !

What numbers specifically do you guys watch for the S&P 500 in the COT report?

There are several contracts that cover it from what I see.
  • #4,877
  • Dec 23, 2010 8:36am Dec 23, 2010 8:36am
Gold,
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  • #4,878
  • Dec 23, 2010 8:46am Dec 23, 2010 8:46am
Quoting Standard Oil
Question !

What numbers specifically do you guys watch for the S&P 500 in the COT report?

There are several contracts that cover it from what I see.
Hi Standard Oil,

I dont use COT for S&P (the E-mini S&P COT is not that reliable)
Here is the chart , it seems it was a good indicator before but I'm not sure whether you can just go short based on that
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  • #4,879
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:02am Dec 23, 2010 9:02am
Quoting shahab8b
EURCHF,
weekly chart indicates a bullish div, picking the bottom is not that easy, I would say it might bottom around 1.25-23.In any events, it could be a good long term trade
I tried a counter trend trade around 1.25, it's heavily oversold and the weekly div indicates a reversal is around the corner
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  • #4,880
  • Dec 27, 2010 10:06am Dec 27, 2010 10:06am
Long term view : Cable
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