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  • #3,701
  • Edited 3:52am Dec 20, 2010 3:13am | Edited 3:52am
Quoting VEEFX
Hello Graeme,

2. MOVING SL TO BE: I am wondering if we could touch the topic of moving SL to Breakeven as I feel this becomes more crucial when we have a leg open and start sending out probes at times of uncertainty by taking unidirectional or bidirectional trades to assess whether to diversify or continue with the trend. During my practice, if I randomly move SL to BE as a constant 10+ or 15+ pips into profit, I feel my BEs are easily taken off. Alternatively, when I wait for confirmation and then move SL to BE (i.e. Engulf bar in the...
Good thought.

We have discussed 5min trading to great lengths in this thread. And yes, a trader will be taken out continuously on the 5min timeframe. However, if you pinpoint the timing of the trade you will find that 5min timeframe provides the best risk reward possible. Pinpointing timeframes is when everything is aligned correctly to your hindsight with an imminent breakout about to happen. A red aura in my vision.

If a trader prefers to enter and keep a fixed stop loss or no stop loss at all please go ahead. However keep an eye on news releases.

This might cause controversy but I have mentioned few times before that I dont even use stop loss most times as I know a sudden price fluctuation of anything greater than 20 pip is not going to happen unless a big news is being broadcasted.

Sometimes one attempt with larger stop loss is better. A trader who tends to jump in and out on 5min chart cause more damage by doing so. I lose once and I stop stacking. Maybe twice but very rarely 3rd attempt.

Continuing on..
  • #3,702
  • Edited 3:30am Dec 20, 2010 3:18am | Edited 3:30am
Quoting VEEFX
3. SMOOTH or UNEVEN UNREALIZED PROFIT CURVE??: This is becoming a bit of pet peeve for me for a while so need to get it out of my mind. I am convinced your approach is the best possible approach that I have come across when in comes to keeping a smooth "account balance" curve.
In my experience during practice, I found my unrealized PnL (total account equity) to be very volatile for my taste. To minimize the impact, I went to smaller position size and span my trades across 40+ pairs out of the 130 pairs that my platform offers to see the...
Great question.

When you look at your equity curve for the past 1,2,3 week, yes it is not smooth. It never will in such short period of time.

It is only when you zoom out and chart your equity curve of last 3 to 6 months when you notice the smooth gradient.

A traders current zig zag looking equity curve for now is 'part of' the smooth curve of the future longer term gradient.

My current fluctuations on my unrealized profit varies. But even the seemingly wild fluctuations of day to day is nothing in the long term. Also when you have greater exposure and spread the risk out everything stabilizes.

This is why many corporations own sub groups of businesses. The hotel division might flourish at the sharp increase in tourism but its retail division could diminish cause of increased interest rate. It evens the keel by spreading exposure around. It might look like they have broken even but the expected positive return on both division is calculated annually and not day by day.

I do not see a jaw dropping volatility as a minus here is overcome by a positive there. But considering all my positions as a whole portfolio I do enjoy an amazing return calculated over the period of last 12 months.

A new trader will experience greater fluctuations than myself as he has interest in only one pair.

Everything stabilizes once you get the ball rolling.

Continuing on..
  • #3,703
  • Edited 4:22am Dec 20, 2010 3:41am | Edited 4:22am
Quoting VEEFX
4. TAKING A BREAK FROM TRADING: I like the idea of continuos participation in the market with routine probes to see if the trend is reversing or continuing. I had to take a break from trading and experienced a significant change in to PnL in a week's time. This got me thinking whether you have any tools up your sleeve to deal with this. Curious if you considered any repositioning of your trades when you took time off recently from your trading.
One approach that I can think of is to calculate each currency's 'net' exposure in your account...
Very good question again.

Apologies but could all readers please hit refresh and read my answer in the above post. Question 3. I added something very important for all.

It may seem like alot of work but I trade with least effort. Infact I spend more time setting up price alert to my cell phone than trading.

Phone rings - I read the message

"price moving out of range on eur/usd"

Goto computer

Look. Is it moving out with momentum? Yes?

Sit down and focus

Enter. Stack. 1 loss. Try again. Another loss. Get up and walk away.

Reset new price alert

Sometimes..

Phone rings - read message

Goto computer

Is it moving with momentum? No?

Reset new price alert and walk away

This helps with my stress and actually helps prevent any over trading as well.

In regards to averaging out positions. It is a good idea but that would add more work to what I currently do. And no one wants to work more. Currently I have more than doubled my initial capital in very short period of time as realized profit and I hold 15 times that amount in unrealized profit. If world does end tomorrow and my unrealized profit vanishes I am still very pleased with the realized profit that I have already taken. That is just how I see it. But ofcourse I will have to bury few people as retaliation at the very least.

I have never had the opportuntity to reposition myself as I always held onto positions. I would however add more positions if trend continues.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #3,704
  • Edited 4:24am Dec 20, 2010 4:10am | Edited 4:24am
Thank you for the continued interest.

Currently there are few traders present that do contact me in a regular manner to update me of their progress.

It is a honour to have such faith from other traders and I do monitor their progress carefully. Sometimes it is like watching myself trying to do my first diversification few years ago.

The point is that if these traders persist and defend their vision, it will be formed into reality. Price might not move in this hour or the next 4 hours but it will definitely move for you from now and the next few weeks. Price must move and it is this inevitable fact that will create your reward.

All you have to do is keep it simple and stay in the game. Please refrain from verbally abusing your boss yet as it is later than now.

For now, keep it simple, choose one pair and watch the higher timeframe using the same price interpretation you have upskilled. When it hints you that it might move few candles on the chart of monthly candles. Go for it.

It might cost you few hundred pip loss if your hindsight is incorrect but it could also mean a few thousand pip reward. And please dont settle for less. If the market moves 1000 pips in 6 weeks for you, I expect no less than 2000 pips from your first try. From the point you start to the point you cash out (or diversify) I expect at least twice what market moved for you as unrealized profit.

Dont worry about diversification for now. Just attempt to catch a large move on higher timeframe and amplify your profit taking with at least 1 or 2 more positions. After few weeks of growth, 'try' and keep 1 of them. And be proud of your accomplishment as you have just driven around the block without a helping hand. But for your sake I do hope the price continues on further when you see for yourself that you didnt make money few weeks ago but you actually lost potential profit. That feeling is much sicker than the feeling of -100 pips you currently look at your realized loss statement.

..Its like winning the lottery only to have thrown out the ticket

Thank you all

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #3,705
  • Dec 20, 2010 5:46am Dec 20, 2010 5:46am
Dear Graeme,

Thank you very much for the words of wisdom, I'm happy that you are posting again on a regular basis because I think that most followers of this thread need the encouragement and the details that you are providing.

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #3,706
  • Dec 20, 2010 6:53am Dec 20, 2010 6:53am
i've been looking for a simple and neat price alert service for my cellphone.I just came across with this one and its got free trial for 24 pairs...you can send up to 20 alerts to your cell as a part of trial...
http://www.newsimpact.com/
  • #3,707
  • Dec 20, 2010 7:54am Dec 20, 2010 7:54am
I use this service http://www.mobile4x.com

Very useful for me, quick registration, but sometimes there is delay with sms and real price, lets say 2- 4 mins ...
  • #3,708
  • Dec 20, 2010 8:12am Dec 20, 2010 8:12am
Quoting GrRt
I use this service http://www.mobile4x.com

Very useful for me, quick registration, but sometimes there is delay with sms and real price, lets say 2- 4 mins ...
Good.

I use a VPS server with mt4 to send email alerts to my phone but these days I use mobile4x to receive sms alerts. Great thing about mobile4x is that I can update price alerts by simply replying back to the sms whereas with VPS I would have to log in. However with VPS I can add simple message (which is very useful as I have price alerts across the whole board and forget what is what most times) that will show up in the email that I receive and it is instantaneous while mobile4x does have 1 or 2 minute lag.

It is now 1am here in sydney and nothing is happening across the board.

I have multiple alerts to wake me up on

eurusd 1.31900, 1.31150 as I really want this breakout in my possession.

The price has stalled for a very long time. Usually a prolonged stall triggers a burst of momentum with great reward. Im currently -32 pips with eurusd.

Know when to trade and today is a no no. We have no one else to piggyback on.

Set up your alerts and catch up sleep or spend time with your loved ones.

Good night.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #3,709
  • Dec 20, 2010 8:22am Dec 20, 2010 8:22am
Quoting pipEASY
Good.

I use a VPS server with mt4 to send email alerts to my phone but these days I use mobile4x to receive sms alerts. Great thing about mobile4x is that I can update price alerts by simply replying back to the sms whereas with VPS I would have to log in. However with VPS I can add simple message (which is very useful as I have price alerts across the whole board and forget what is what most times) that will show up in the email that I receive and it is instantaneous while mobile4x does have 1 or 2 minute lag.

It is now 1am here in sydney and...
i entered a short on eu and closed it with a small loss when it started ranging...
i've set couple of alerts too in case there is a move...until then i'm off the charts...
  • #3,710
  • Dec 20, 2010 10:04am Dec 20, 2010 10:04am
Quoting pipEASY
Good.

I use a VPS server with mt4 to send email alerts to my phone but these days I use mobile4x to receive sms alerts. Great thing about mobile4x is that I can update price alerts by simply replying back to the sms whereas with VPS I would have to log in. However with VPS I can add simple message (which is very useful as I have price alerts across the whole board and forget what is what most times) that will show up in the email that I receive and it is instantaneous while mobile4x does have 1 or 2 minute lag.

It is now 1am here in sydney...
Thanks Graeme for your awesome and detailed responses to my questions. Price just recently broke downward so hope you caught that. I couldn't but here's another question I have a bit of struggle with especially on M5 TF concerning breakout and momentum.

In the attached EU chart, I took a long trade (probe) at London open last night but tuned out to be a false breakout. My reasoning was a strong up candle piercing through the daily open price point (green line). I probably retraced back as I was against the trend which I knew but this was just a practice trade before I call it a night:-

Now my question...

What's confirms a strong momentum based breakout? Per my observation, just a single full body bar(FBB) usually follows by a retrace or complete reversal on M5 TF indicating just market noise. Would you agree to wait for atleast 2-3 M5 candles and spaced EMAs to develop after a cross over before entering a trade once you get alerted on your cell? I have also noticed that taking a trade on M5 when M15, M30 and H1 candles are of same color increases the probability of success.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture_019.jpg Size: 67 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,711
  • Dec 20, 2010 10:05am Dec 20, 2010 10:05am
It has now moved out of range with great burst.

Just before I went to sleep I opened 1 position @ 1.3160 with hard stop loss above the high point of the day 1.3190. It was more of a probe which respects my hindsight but I had valid reasons (near open price of day, and price bounced off 200ema which seems to be invincible today). I edited price alerts so I receive alert @ 1.3140. I have 2 positions in @ 1.3135. All moved to breakeven.

It is 3am here and I do need to rest as late nights does effect my health.

For nomask, cam, grrt, geoff, veefx, rustam dont forget your hindsight. Follow it through. It does not matter if it doesnt work but it is simply negligence if you are not sincere with your own hindsight that you have analysed. Make it into reality.

Usual stall at .00 area. Also start of new 4hr candle. Anticipate the best possible scenario that it will have less than 33% retrace. If so, take advantage of it and juice it out (not too many attempts) for the next 4 hours. And when it stalls, stop. Let the buyers take over control for awhile and then enter when they lose strength.

I know all readers are more than capable and there is no need for my commentary above but it is there if you need to confirm your own beliefs.

Good night all.

Sincerely

Graeme
  • #3,712
  • Dec 20, 2010 10:11am Dec 20, 2010 10:11am
Quoting pipEASY
For nomask, cam, grrt, geoff, veefx, rustam dont forget your hindsight. Follow it through. It does not matter if it doesnt work but it is simply negligence if you are not sincere with your own hindsight that you have analysed. Make it into reality.
...
Good night all.

Sincerely

Graeme
Good night Graeme, thank you for the message, even at 3 AM you are thinking about our progress, and wanted to say that is very very much appreciated.

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #3,713
  • Dec 20, 2010 10:21am Dec 20, 2010 10:21am
Quoting VEEFX
Thanks Graeme for your awesome and detailed responses to my questions. Price just recently broke downward so hope you caught that. I couldn't but here's another question I have a bit of struggle with especially on M5 TF concerning breakout and momentum.

In the attached EU chart, I took a long trade (probe) at London open last night but tuned out to be a false breakout. My reasoning was a strong up candle piercing through the daily open price point (green line). I probably retraced back as I was against the trend which I knew but this was just...
Good question it would be unfortuantely last for today.

I wrote yesterday that when I enter there are few things I do not want to see.

One of them (especially when I trade 5min) is to have the price retrace more than 50% of previous candle. I prefer to see less than 33% retrace which shows the lack of strength from opposition. Sometimes when you wait 2-3 5min candle you missed the whole opportuntity. Probe it first. Just add 1 position and watch what happens. If it grows then add again. For some psychological reason you will find probing with a position and watching its value increase or decrease is far more effective than watching raw price fluctuations. The strength of the move also depends on the setup before the move. Was there a stall? If so, was it prolonged? Just like now on eurusd. Sometimes it happens at a key s/r. That is order flow. You can sense where most traders placed there buy stops and sell stops when price approaches .00 then punctures straight through with increased speed means there was large buy/sell stops at that .00. Sometimes it approaches .00 and then bounce away sharply which means the mass has placed their TP at that .00. Every little information helps but it is also important not to overcrowd your thoughts. The most direct answer to your question would be the retrace and probe. Watch retrace and send out probe. Watch and add more to it.

The last part of your paragraph. When you wait for all timeframes to align up is when I see red aura in the markets. And the skill grows to a point where it becomes very reliable. But sometimes when you wait for it align up the battle is over. Probe first. When monthly, weekly align up except daily. I would send out a probe when price bounces back down from retrace towards the open price of the day and towards the aligned weekly and monthly direction. Most often that probe is on the wick of the days candle.

Hope this answer helps.

Good night

Graeme
  • #3,714
  • Dec 20, 2010 10:23am Dec 20, 2010 10:23am
Quoting cameron1st
Good night Graeme, thank you for the message, even at 3 AM you are thinking about our progress, and wanted to say that is very very much appreciated.

Kindest Regards,

Cam
It is my pleasure.

Thank you for the warm compliments.

Apologies if I dont acknowledge them publically but they are noted and greatly appreciated.

Thank you to acim and maaj for their kind words before and apologies if i missed your name here.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #3,715
  • Dec 20, 2010 12:37pm Dec 20, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting pipEASY
Good question it would be unfortuantely last for today.

I wrote yesterday that when I enter there are few things I do not want to see.

One of them (especially when I trade 5min) is to have the price retrace more than 50% of previous candle. I prefer to see less than 33% retrace which shows the lack of strength from opposition. Sometimes when you wait 2-3 5min candle you missed the whole opportuntity. Probe it first. Just add 1 position and watch what happens. If it grows then add again. For some psychological reason you will find probing...
Thanks Graeme for bringing further clarity. I certainly wasn't expecting a response in the middle of the night your time. So please respond at your convenience in a manner that does not affect your health. We all know your continued participation is more valued by our readers.

I now have a much clear idea now how to tackle M5 entries. Will be practicing much more in coming days to get better.

Best Regards,

- Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,716
  • Edited 8:17pm Dec 20, 2010 8:05pm | Edited 8:17pm
Good afternoon all

I would like to talk about going against your hindsight today.

Now this topic is subjective if you plan to only execute as per your hindsight and there is nothing wrong with that. You will however need to be more patient as an incorrect hindsight on the monthly chart could mean that you sit out for few weeks or months. I prefer not to.

We can never be 100% right with our hindsight but we could admit to it and cover both sides. It costs very little to keep both sides of the argument.

There are few readers (including myself) that we have hindsight down on eurusd, gbpusd, eurgbp. However, just what if we are incorrect.

Lets have a look at eurusd this morning and what I did to simply cover both situations.

eurusd 4hr

http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/9374/65798729.jpg

And there was a sudden big movement going up. This should confirm your ascending wick theory that it is now buyers control.

Send 1 probe.

The next area I focus is here:

http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/3492/69320697.jpg

It is the first resistance that I can see. Price cuts through it like butter with hardly no stall. Add 1 more as the probe is now 10-15 pip profit.

The next area 'and the most important' is here:

http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/9792/35606547.jpg

The reason is that 'assuming' this 4hr candle is complete buyers control then the optimum scenario 'for the buyers' is to have the current 4hr candle close above the open price of previous sell candle. Remember this small rule? What do you do then? You try and enter a position before the line as the price nears it.

What does the above cover on the higher timeframe?

eurusd daily

http://img375.imageshack.us/img375/8584/88198476.jpg

It covers the scenario where a traders down monthly hindsight could be wrong and this might be the start of something huge going up. You just never know. If the daily candle closes above open price of previous down candle it would mean re-evaluating your current monthly hindsight but before that I already have 3 positions in place going up while most traders think about it. React first.

HOWEVER..

eurusd daily

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/4096/16331893.jpg


All this could be a retrace for our DOWN hindsight. In which case you would wait until the current up movement loses strength and starts to drop. You will notice descending wick patterns and stalls before the price tumbles down. And when it does, prove your theory early with 1 position and then start stacking as it continues down and go aggressive when a 4hr candle finally does close below the open price of previous buy candle.

As most readers will notice I say the similar thing over and over again. And this is all I do everyday.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #3,717
  • Dec 20, 2010 9:04pm Dec 20, 2010 9:04pm
on-line tutorial at its best!

thank you once again for those wonderful messages Sir Graeme.

Merry Christmas to you and your loved ones.
  • #3,718
  • Dec 20, 2010 9:53pm Dec 20, 2010 9:53pm
Thank you for the kind words Taurus.

I would like to talk about one more topic. This wasn't discussed before but was asked the most times.

When is it time to cash out?

I received PMs from few traders who had over 2000 pip unrealized profit in the last few weeks to watch it diminish to nothing. This is not their fault as they are not aware what to exactly expect.

Here is a rough statistical answer from my personal experience of the last few years:

Any growth between 2000 to 4000 pips within the range of 4 to 6 weeks on a single pair of currency is ripe for picking.

Im not going to impose all to keep most legs as you will eventually evolve.

Taste your big success and bank that huge jump. Try and keep at least 1 leg.

After the taste of your first big success you will crave for more. Financial reward from the market has similar psychological effects to taking drugs. You start building tolerance level and crave for the higher level of jolt. After your first taste it will be you who choose to close less legs as you know 'inevitably' soon or later you will get another hit of big jolt. This is what i mean by evolving. And once your addicted you will keep raising your levels until you are now taking huge few thousand pip slices from monthly chart that grew for few months and less number of smaller few thousand pip hits.

You don't need to force yourself to be a position manager or position builder. It is the surreal high you receive when you capture the next high jump that propels you so high that it would be impossible without recklessness to come back down to previous profit levels.

Some pairs have been in the same trend for more than a year, some few years. Believe me when I say a big cash out day of 20000 pips to 30000 pips is nothing when you continuously add position year after year after year. It will inevitably happen on the currency pair you have chosen. Just hold on until then.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #3,719
  • Dec 20, 2010 10:15pm Dec 20, 2010 10:15pm
Hi Graeme,
thanks again for taking the time to share with us all,
i have a question regarding what you have said below,
when you say 2000 to 4000 pips growth, are you meaning 2000 to 4000 pips movement of the currency pair or are you saying 2000 to 4000 combined growth in ones position on the pair????

sorry if this sounds confussing

cheers
Geoff


Quoting pipEASY
Thank you for the kind words Taurus.

I would like to talk about one more topic. This wasn't discussed before but was asked the most times.

When is it time to cash out?

I received PMs from few traders who had over 2000 pip unrealized profit in the last few weeks to watch it diminish to nothing. This is not their fault as they are not aware what to exactly expect.

Here is a rough statistical answer from my personal experience of the last few years:

[u][b]Any growth between 2000 to 4000 pips within the range of 4 to 6 weeks on a single pair...
  • #3,720
  • Dec 20, 2010 10:25pm Dec 20, 2010 10:25pm
I am glad you addressed this post Greame. For those aspiring to go full-time, it is best to build long legs with enough profit taking scale to take out a full year's profit before they quit their full-time jobs. It would be so much easy on their physiology to not have the rely on their trading income on a month to month basis and just focus on building legs over the course of the year and then cash out at year end, pay taxes to uncle Sam and then you are set to feed off this profit for the next year! Just run it like your own personal hedge fund which only allows withdrawals in the month of december. Awesome!

Thanks for addressing this key topic and the one going against the hindsight.

Best Regards,

Vee

(sending from my new ipad from a shopping mall !!!!)
Staying in my lane...
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