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Ok, Lets do it - Developing a Highly Profitable System

  • #81
  • Dec 11, 2010 9:59am Dec 11, 2010 9:59am
Quoting Adal
How will you know what the smart money is doing?

The like to keep these things to themselves. They even create diversions: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exc...t-manipulation (slow loading today)
You will never know for sure.. obviously its speculative.. but the smart money moves the market and we know in general how they invest.. obviously central banks arent going to invest for .25% interest when they can have 4% interest.. some common sense is all were using to put the odds in our favor
  • #82
  • Dec 11, 2010 10:16am Dec 11, 2010 10:16am
Quoting newyear498
You will never know for sure.. obviously its speculative.. but the smart money moves the market and we know in general how they invest.. obviously central banks arent going to invest for .25% interest when they can have 4% interest.. some common sense is all were using to put the odds in our favor
Central banks invest for other reasons than profit. Otherwise they would all dump the USD and the EUR and go for the PLN, ZAR or RON, which have much better yields.

"Common sense" it's also priced in the market already. You need something better than that to profit. You need "uncommon sense".
  • #83
  • Dec 11, 2010 10:24am Dec 11, 2010 10:24am
'Smart Money' (whatever the fuck that is) = Momentum. hmmm.....
Inserted Video
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #84
  • Dec 11, 2010 11:08am Dec 11, 2010 11:08am
Yes the banks trade for other reasons.. what do you expect me to do address every single one per post..

and smart money is a term that refers to the big players/ experienced investors which also is usually is banks and governments that can cause price to move

Anyways conversations go no where unless you elaborate on your ideas.. like how to trade with "uncommon sense"

do you have any uncommon ideas to trading?

I personally think common sense is not exactly the way most traders think.. I usually see a lot of "when the 10EMA is below go long" and a little common since of all the USD losing value would have kept you from going long... I think the common since you speak of being priced into the market is the banks using common since.. so thats why I suggest using a similar common sense

sure the government will step in now and again and keep its currency in line.. but everything I said about using interest rates to our advantage still provides an upper hand
  • #85
  • Dec 11, 2010 11:16am Dec 11, 2010 11:16am
Quoting Craig
'Smart Money' (whatever the fuck that is) = Momentum. hmmm.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcNoywmfQw4
thats a good video.. one that supports a whole different tale I could make about the fact... just because you can't see the market doesnt mean its just a chart with candlesticks on it hehehe
  • #86
  • Dec 11, 2010 11:21am Dec 11, 2010 11:21am
Quoting PiptheRipper
I agree! Smart money create the momentum. IMO the easiest way to spot the direction and follow with the momentum is by determining the current trend. I'm interested to see what else we can use to determine momentum or when it's fading.
Yes smart money, but why did Goldman screw up their trades last year on CE currencies, aren't they smart money?
  • #87
  • Dec 11, 2010 11:36am Dec 11, 2010 11:36am
Quoting Adal
How will you know what the smart money is doing?

The like to keep these things to themselves. They even create diversions: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exc...t-manipulation (slow loading today)
When you speak of diversion, you mean the techniques spoken of in the article, not the article itself as a way to lead us to believe into fake manipulation techniques, right?
“Nothing great in the world has ever been accomplished without passion.”
  • #88
  • Dec 11, 2010 11:36am Dec 11, 2010 11:36am
Quoting newyear498
do you have any uncommon ideas to trading?
If I had, why would I share them?

Quote
sure the government will step in now and again and keep its currency in line.. but everything I said about using interest rates to our advantage still provides an upper hand
If it was that easy.... I'm not sure how long you have been around. Another name for taking advantage of interest rates is "carry trade".

Before 2008 a lot of people sold low rate yen and bought high rate USD, EUR, NZD, AUD.... Then the great carry trade unwind of 2008 happened. All these investors using "common sense" were steam-rolled: http://www.google.com/search?q=2008%...trade%20unwind

Sorry for having to say this, it's in your interest. You are making every mistake in the book. You have a lot to read and learn.
  • #89
  • Dec 11, 2010 11:42am Dec 11, 2010 11:42am
Quoting Deevz
When you speak of diversion, you mean the techniques spoken of in the article, not the article itself as a way to lead us to believe into fake manipulation techniques, right?
You might want to read this book if you don't believe that these things take place. About day-to-day machinations taking place in the finance world.

http://www.amazon.com/Traders-Guns-M.../dp/0273704745

It's even easy to see that this is right: let's say that you want to buy a ton of euros. Who in the right mind would let that sort of information became public, so that other banks and "stupid" retail like us would buy in front of them and then sell to them, thus making money on their back. You would do everything in your power to keep this a secret or to misinform.
  • #90
  • Dec 11, 2010 12:01pm Dec 11, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting Adal
If I had, why would I share them?
Because thats the purpose of this thread.. why would you show up to this thread to not contribute to the purpose of this thread...

Quote
If it was that easy.... I'm not sure how long you have been around....


If you read all of my posts you would clearly see I never said to blindly jump into a situation of selling yen for dollar simply because of the interest difference..

there is a factor of selecting the ones that have the greatest probability to continue growing or shrinking based on economic factors not simply selecting based on current rate.. but then this comes back to how the banks are looking forward at these factors to avoid unwinding which is back to my point

obviously there is an unwinding factor to as everything fluctuates which is my personal rule #1 about the markets.. everything fluctuates.. but thats my personal rule and an entirely different subject for the nay sayers to debate about...

Honestly were back tracking into what I've already stated in my past posts and I'm being forced to state it again.. if you think its wiser to invest in the USD over the AUD or JPY over USD for the next year I would gladly take the other side..

but remember were not going to be putting on long term trades these are all just factors that am at probability for our trades.. layer after layer of odds.. that way in theory when some things we are unknowingly wrong about at a given moment our other aspects of our trading will still keep our odds positive

I've clearly noted just because fundamentals are great doesn't mean the next trade is going to be favorable.. lets add 3-4 dimensions

  • #91
  • Edited 12:21pm Dec 11, 2010 12:09pm | Edited 12:21pm
So I would like some insights into post 79 because while its not possible to know exactly what the banks are doing I don't see why we need to debate about how you don't know what banks are doing.. theres a reason its a speculative market I didn't come here to debate that..

What I am doing is speculating where the banks are putting there money and where they are driving the market based on more than one factor

thanks!
  • #92
  • Dec 11, 2010 12:36pm Dec 11, 2010 12:36pm
Quoting Adal
"Common sense" it's also priced in the market already. You need something better than that to profit. You need "uncommon sense".
Excellent point. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Not many will understand. Such understanding comes from long interaction with the market and a real dedication to understanding the hidden dynamics of this game. People will call you negative and unproductive for not trying to spoon feed the fruits of your hard work to them.
  • #93
  • Dec 11, 2010 1:09pm Dec 11, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting Marv
Excellent point. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Not many will understand. Such understanding comes from long interaction with the market and a real dedication to understanding the hidden dynamics of this game. People will call you negative and unproductive for not trying to spoon feed the fruits of your hard work to them.
There is nothing that needs to be spoon fed here.. in all your years of hard work you have not found any hidden dynamics because there are no hidden dynamics.. everyone is capable of seeing these dynamics they are not hidden.. most just overlook it

for example there is no secret as to what price in its current state represents.. again its no secret.. its right in-front of your face that the current price action represents the overall markets prediction of where the price of a that pair will go in the future.. yet its being represented in the present..

hmm.. no secret see.. just not something most people can come to realize... and so what I told you.. and I spoon fed it.. and now what the banks are going to come in right now and compromise what I just told you? all my years of hard work gone down the drain
  • #94
  • Edited 2:01pm Dec 11, 2010 1:40pm | Edited 2:01pm
I think some traders don't want to talk about what they know because it took them so long to figure out what they know.. so they feel empowered knowing more than a new trader and don't want to give up that power.. there on power rages literally.. they enjoy feeling they know something a new person doesnt.

I also find that in another aspect some of these traders are completely new to the market and pretending like they know some secret.. its obvious when someone is going around calling others newbies and saying that others don't know anything about the market that in reality they are themselves new.. because career traders don't use the words like newbie onto others.. its a newbie word.. people project what they themselves are..

the year is 2010 people.. in our roughly 100 year life span we are capable of learning math, science, English, and a million other things where as in the year 1600's it took much longer to figure things out..

in this new age we can teach eachother and learn faster.. I can only imagine archimedes going "HAHHAHA I KNOW a secret called PI and I'm not going to share it because then you would be able to solve equations that it took me years to solve hahahahaha"
  • #95
  • Dec 11, 2010 3:38pm Dec 11, 2010 3:38pm
Quoting newyear498
I can only imagine archimedes going "HAHHAHA I KNOW a secret called PI and I'm not going to share it
That is not a good comparison. Archimedes was a scientist. Trading for a living is a different thing altogether. It's a dog eat dog world where making money off others IS the only motive, not making inventions to benefit the world.

Quoting newyear498
its no secret.. its right in-front of your face
If all information were so clear/not hidden in a sea of random chaos and a shitload of misinformation, then why are you still not making money?

Quoting newyear498
I think
Pardon me if this sounds harsh, but what you "think" doesn't mean shit unless you yourself can beat this market.

Too many people talk about the market and trading when they themselves aren't profitable. Some even write books. They don't really "help" anybody, but people will mostly like what they're reading usually as a result of confirmation bias.

If you don't live off the trading game, then the best favor you can do to everybody is to keep what you think about trading and the market to yourself. If it isn't directly benefiting you, it won't benefit anybody. (I'm not singling you our specifically but speaking generally, to everybody)

I hope your thread proves useful nevertheless.
  • #96
  • Dec 11, 2010 4:14pm Dec 11, 2010 4:14pm
If you believe that the markets are dog eat dog and all that you just mention then why would you come to a forum and do the opposite of your belief.. if your belief is to keep secrets why would you come to a forum which purpose is to share information... to brag about your secrets? what purpose.. leave FF if you want to keep your secrets

and the question of if information is clear is just a matter of interpretation.. it can be clear to me and not to you... its about interepratating the information thats infront of your face.. but its no secret and I never said it was clear to everyone.. and I know its not clear to you and its not clear to me.. but I know there are some aspects that are clear to me and are clear to you... if we put them together we would have an even clearer picture.. but your worried about the trillion dollar market not having enough money in it for you..

why would you assume that I am not making money in the market.. is it because you don't make money in the market.. is it because I strive to generate higher returns that I am suddenly a losing trader? I don't understand your irrational thinking..

Quote
If you don't live off the trading game, then the best favor you can do to everybody is to keep what you think about trading and the market to yourself. If it isn't directly benefiting you, it won't benefit anybody.

Maybe you should read this several times, do you really live off the market.. marv.. are you telling me you are full time forex.. because you are telling me what you think.. and the only way you are allowed to do this is if you are full time forex.. and are you telling me that someone who is full time forex but only because he is retired from work and while not generating enough money to pay all his bills without the support of his SSI is the only person who has the authority to express there opinions about the market

I use the words "I think" because I am making it clear that I am stating my opinions and if your opinions differ thats fine because I never claimed things as facts.. because I don't feel a need to provide statistical or essay supported facts every post.. and if my opinion is momentum is the most important thing in trading and yours is that secrets is the most important thing in trading then thats fine because these are not facts.. they can never be proven which is better... because "better" and "clearly" are very subjective terms..




I think you have some good points.. in a certain aspect if I had insider information of what the banks are doing tomorrow I would keep it secret even if it was not illegal I would keep my information secret.. but were not talking about anything near the magnitude of insider information.. so what the hell could you possibly know that I don't already know thats so secret.. unless you have insider information then there is a good chance whatever your secrets are will not be compromised by sharing with the forum.. the forum you joined whose purpose is the share information and learn from others.. not keep secrets...
  • #97
  • Dec 11, 2010 4:20pm Dec 11, 2010 4:20pm
I'm getting really sick of FF because the more I go to different threads and not just this one I run into people who has secrets and I find a lot of negative people..

Maybe I should just leave this fucking forum since its apparently for people with secrets and the only way I will be welcome here is if I start to hold back all my knowledge about trading...

don't get me wrong there are some traders I really like here but its like a few among the majority and oh wait now were back to the rumor of majority are losing traders... Greatttt
  • #98
  • Dec 11, 2010 5:08pm Dec 11, 2010 5:08pm
I'm not sure what you were expecting. Coming to a forum, singing a song, holding hands together, and then the millions start pouring in?

There are no secrets except the actual trading systems. Trading is about having an edge. The moment you share your edge with the world, it's not an edge anymore. Some peoples edge is collocated super-fast computers, others it's advanced mathematical prediction models. Some have a really good gut instinct. Whatever it is, you need one.

The second thing is what would you do with somebody's else edge if they talked about it? If a quant came here and started spewing equations, saying that they are highly profitable, would you be able to pick them up and do something with them? "When the pupil is ready, the master appears." as they say. What would probably happen is that other quants would take them and maybe improve theirs trading, but beginners would still get no benefit, because they wouldn't be able to apply the new knowledge. The end result is that no beginner would be helped, only other advanced traders competing with our sharer of knowledge. So he destroyed his profitability while helping no beginner.

You seem very logical. Start thinking what would happen if you managed to reach your final goal (which certainly is possible, as hundreds of profitable proprietary trading firms show). What would happen when a highly profitable system is public for all to know?

You know what? Such a thing happened - two years ago, an EA called FAP Turbo ruled the Asian session. It actually worked and made profits for lots of people. It sold over 50,000 copies. At it's height, it was so used that it moved the market all by itself during the night. The banks and the brokers started losing a lot of money so they widened the spread. Guess what happened? It stopped working anymore.

Forums like these are good for seeing what doesn't work. That's good knowledge in itself.
  • #99
  • Edited 5:33pm Dec 11, 2010 5:15pm | Edited 5:33pm
Quoting Adal
You might want to read this book if you don't believe that these things take place. About day-to-day machinations taking place in the finance world.

http://www.amazon.com/Traders-Guns-M.../dp/0273704745
....You would do everything in your power to keep this a secret or to misinform.
Quoting Marv
That is not a good comparison. Archimedes was a scientist. Trading for a living is a different thing altogether. It's a dog eat dog world where making money off others IS the only motive, not making inventions to benefit the world.
Invention and exploration do have their place in trading. Some personality types see the trading world in this way, myself included. (BTW, Archimedes also, according to a tv program, discovered calculus.)

Though Adal's contribution showed how complex the hidden side of forex / derivatives is, it was more about broke r sales, switching symbols and markets, and order flow, and had almost nothing to do with an ordinary chart.
Or rather, it's like reading news into a chart: Sure it can be done, and so can, just as well, technical studies. Plenty can be discovered about an ordinary chart.

To the last post, though addressed to someone else:
A way to avoiding the issue of (un)planned obsolescence is to have a trade study method is to organize exactly and describe in discretionary examples lots of devices that must work together differently for every market (chart) situation. Then, one must train for a long time in the particular method, a step which most would rather avoid than learn what works.
  • #100
  • Dec 11, 2010 5:46pm Dec 11, 2010 5:46pm
Quoting newyear498
why would you come to a forum and do the opposite of your belief..
Quoting newyear498
why would you come to a forum which purpose is to share information... to brag about your secrets?
Quoting newyear498
your worried about the trillion dollar market not having enough money in it for you..
Quoting newyear498
do you really live off the market.. marv.. are you telling me you are full time forex..
Quoting newyear498
so what the hell could you possibly know that I don't already know thats so secret..
You're asking all the wrong questions.

Forget about me for a second and really think about what Adal said for starters (of which you showed a complete lack of understanding).

Stop worrying so much about us "hiding some holy grail secret from you", realize that that's not how it works. All information is out there, there is nothing new under the sun (mostly). You just need to find out what you need to look at, how you need to look at it, and how to trade it, things that most people are missing; all of this requires work on your part.That said, real trading knowledge is an inner thing, it is very hard to quantify or teach, and is acquired through years of direct interaction with the market and a conscious effort to learn its inner dynamics. The reason for this is because of the nature of the market itself, which is complex/dynamic.

It's a lot of personal work that you can't bypass, even if some guy whom you never met comes to your thread and gives you some trading tips that he worked very hard to reach and you didn't (not the "holy grail" as a newbie will believe, but things that will save you a lot of time), even then, you still won't likely know how to exploit them effectively until YOU do the actual work and develop a mindset that is able to tap into the underlying market activity (beyond the obvious).

But to first assume that we (the "negative" and "unproductive" guys) have some super "secret" hidden from you and, second, speak as if it's your right that we just hand you what we know is not just ludicrous and naive, it's a little pathetic and shows that you don't know any better than the clueless forex noob hunting for the holy grail in public internet message boards.

Quoting newyear498
why would you assume that I am not making money in the market.. is it because you don't make money in the market.. is it because I strive to generate higher returns that I am suddenly a losing trader?
Whatever makes you feel better my friend. I am not your enemy, you are.
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