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  • #9,501
  • Dec 8, 2010 1:40pm Dec 8, 2010 1:40pm
Quoting Custos
hm, then I don't understand what you mean with that the daily doesn't have so good R:R ratios since your selection of take profit is set arbitrarily to a certain amount.

So you are saying that on the daily chart, price normally doesn't reach 1:1.5 and 1:2? Or what do you mean?

No, I mean those were 4H chart Pin Bars. Not on daily.
  • #9,502
  • Dec 8, 2010 11:40pm Dec 8, 2010 11:40pm
Quoting shiko
No, I mean those were 4H chart Pin Bars. Not on daily.
yes, but you were saying:
"But I noticed one thing, while pin bar can have very good R:R ratio on 4H , it mostly sucks on daily. R:R is simply horrible and a lot of failed pins."

So, I am wondering, are you saying that the pinbars on the daily don't reach 1:1.5 & 1:2?
  • #9,503
  • Dec 8, 2010 11:52pm Dec 8, 2010 11:52pm
Quoting Custos
yes, but you were saying:
"But I noticed one thing, while pin bar can have very good R:R ratio on 4H , it mostly sucks on daily. R:R is simply horrible and a lot of failed pins."

So, I am wondering, are you saying that the pinbars on the daily don't reach 1:1.5 & 1:2?

No they do, but not as many as on 4H. Isn't it easier to make 100 pips after 50 pips PB than to make 300 pips after 150 pips PB?
  • #9,504
  • Dec 8, 2010 11:56pm Dec 8, 2010 11:56pm
anyone watching this?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd weekly.gif Size: 72 KB



btw, I have almost traded my November DD back. about 3% to go.
few current examples, daily pins on E/U and Chf/Usd. I shorted Chf/Usd but closed at BE after few hours this was going nowhere also, there is heavy support below. E/U pin looks more promissing but risk far to big for me now.
  • #9,505
  • Dec 8, 2010 11:58pm Dec 8, 2010 11:58pm
Quoting shiko
No they do, but not as many as on 4H. Isn't it easier to make 100 pips after 50 pips PB than to make 300 pips after 150 pips PB?
hm, I don't know if it is easier. For me positive expectancy is far more important than how much I need to risk to achieve a certain amount of return. As long as the expectancy still remains positive, I wouldn't care about the size of the pinbar.
  • #9,506
  • Dec 9, 2010 12:01am Dec 9, 2010 12:01am
Quoting shiko
E/U pin looks more promissing but risk far to big for me now.
That makes me think about something. Do you use a static lot size? Like for example no matter how many pips at risk you always use 1 lot?

Otherwise I don't understand the statement that the risk is too big, cause you can always adjust your lot-size, so that the account risk stays the same.

Or is it because of market conditions, that you think the risk is too big?
  • #9,507
  • Dec 9, 2010 12:12am Dec 9, 2010 12:12am
Quoting Custos
That makes me think about something. Do you use a static lot size? Like for example no matter how many pips at risk you always use 1 lot?

Otherwise I don't understand the statement that the risk is too big, cause you can always adjust your lot-size, so that the account risk stays the same.

Or is it because of market conditions, that you think the risk is too big?


no, my size depends upon my stop and here stop would be more than 100 pips... and I am not sure if this pin is working.
  • #9,508
  • Dec 9, 2010 12:16am Dec 9, 2010 12:16am
Quoting Custos
hm, I don't know if it is easier. For me positive expectancy is far more important than how much I need to risk to achieve a certain amount of return. As long as the expectancy still remains positive, I wouldn't care about the size of the pinbar.

I do look at the size of my stop as I do not like to hang in trades too long. what i am looking at is momentum and quick move into positive territory.
if pin is 200-300 pips I would not take it or I would set my stop somewhere within pin if there is some s/r there to reduce my stop size but still to be protected. I already did it.
I read that usually, if price reaches 61.8 fib retracement on pin bar, in most cases it is going to hit stop anyway.
  • #9,509
  • Dec 9, 2010 12:19am Dec 9, 2010 12:19am
I am also waiting for this to fail and go back under 111.00

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy daily.gif Size: 70 KB



btw, missed to short eur/aud. it was quick. I shorted it on Monday though.
  • #9,510
  • Dec 9, 2010 12:54am Dec 9, 2010 12:54am
I find entries from daily chart the best but I wonder when those pins going to work. probably those that are along the trend. sometimes I see those pin bars start a new big move but it is successful pins that capture attention and as I started watching them, a lot of them fail now.
also, I noticed they work the best in ranging / side ways market. if we look at 4H Eur/Usd and Gbp/usd when it was going up and down for those few weeks almost all good looking pins on 4H would result in great trades.
  • #9,511
  • Dec 9, 2010 2:00am Dec 9, 2010 2:00am
Quoting shiko
I find entries from daily chart the best but I wonder when those pins going to work. probably those that are along the trend.
well, then test it, if you are not sure...

Quoting shiko
sometimes I see those pin bars start a new big move but it is successful pins that capture attention and as I started watching them, a lot of them fail now.
also, I noticed they work the best in ranging / side ways market. if we look at 4H Eur/Usd and Gbp/usd when it was going up and down for those few weeks almost all good looking pins on 4H would result in great trades.
Pinbars from just a few weeks are definitely not enough to reach to any conclusions, you need more data. Again, statistics books say anything below 10,000 data points is not enough.
  • #9,512
  • Edited 2:19am Dec 9, 2010 2:05am | Edited 2:19am
Colleagues i got this setup GBPUSD 4HR...i think it’s a nice one, what do you think?

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #9,513
  • Dec 9, 2010 2:20am Dec 9, 2010 2:20am
Quoting mayorowo
Colleagues i got this setup GBPUSD 4HR...i think it’s a nice one, what do you think?

Thanks
yep, looks good!
  • #9,514
  • Dec 9, 2010 3:22am Dec 9, 2010 3:22am
Quoting Custos
well, then test it, if you are not sure...


Pinbars from just a few weeks are definitely not enough to reach to any conclusions, you need more data. Again, statistics books say anything below 10,000 data points is not enough.

Man, you are too formal. If statistics was the most important thing than than the guys who learn this science would make the best traders. Trading is not only about statistics. You and me have computer between our eyes. it is good enough to subconsciously make right decisions if enough time spent watching markets.
for example,. I felt that these pins would not work as they should from their place and looks. this was a feeling not based on statistics.
  • #9,515
  • Dec 9, 2010 3:23am Dec 9, 2010 3:23am
Quoting mayorowo
Colleagues i got this setup GBPUSD 4HR...i think it’s a nice one, what do you think?

Thanks
i like it too. but gotta go bank rate news are coming...
  • #9,516
  • Dec 9, 2010 3:50am Dec 9, 2010 3:50am
Quoting shiko
i like it too. but gotta go bank rate news are coming...
Partly closed already and moved to break even
  • #9,517
  • Dec 9, 2010 3:59am Dec 9, 2010 3:59am
Quoting mayorowo
Partly closed already and moved to break even

I exited completely short eur/gbp .8470 due to news.

As I understand you don't use original NightMoves' system? You dont use BPC entries, seems to me that you are trading bounces from important S/R?

Could you give me a hint wherefrom this subthread starts? It looks worth studying.
  • #9,518
  • Dec 9, 2010 4:10am Dec 9, 2010 4:10am
Quoting shiko
Man, you are too formal. If statistics was the most important thing than than the guys who learn this science would make the best traders. Trading is not only about statistics. You and me have computer between our eyes. it is good enough to subconsciously make right decisions if enough time spent watching markets.
for example,. I felt that these pins would not work as they should from their place and looks. this was a feeling not based on statistics.
I agree that being a statistician doesn't make you a good trader automatically.

But I don't agree with that trading is not only about statistics. Trading is ONLY about statistics. In the end of the day what counts is, if you are net profitable over the long haul.
Best example is going to the casino. No matter which strategy you have in the casino, you will lose no matter what, cause of statistics. The advantage is always on the casino's side, never on yours (except with poker and blackjack maybe)

Now in trading we are in a similar situation. There are thousands of unprofitable strategies, which might make you think you have an advantage, but hard numbers might confirm that it is indeed a loser. The brain is fantastic in recognizing patterns, but it is also fantastic in making one delusional.
Anyways, enough of the rant. If after thousands of trades, you are net profitable, you have a winner. If not then you are trading a losing strategy.
  • #9,519
  • Dec 9, 2010 4:29am Dec 9, 2010 4:29am
is it possible to close partial lots as a pending order?

thanks
Andy
  • #9,520
  • Dec 9, 2010 4:36am Dec 9, 2010 4:36am
Quoting Andy_G
is it possible to close partial lots as a pending order?

thanks
Andy
normally yes, but depends on your broker I guess
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