USD/JPY Discussion

Red

I jumped in with you at 83.654 Saw the 30 minute and backed out and looked at 1H. Both look promising for a few PIPS. GOOD LUCK in our trade Redsword11! Do you have a target yet? I am about to head to lunch so I haven't decided on a scalp or trade yet?

my plan - stop to entry plus spread is 35 pips


if and when prices are in my favour +35, will close 2/3 position


leave stop where it is, not moving to BE @ that time and the worst that can happen then is l will be +1/3



difficult to identify a clear demand zone - aiming for the nearest around 83.30



if prices break that level - then l will move to BE but closing 2/3 @ +35 l have beat the market by +1/3 regardless



....... and good luck too



Red




Red

Evening traders!

We had another bullish day today, hitting a fresh high at 83.77 which was capped perfectly at the daily pivot R2.
The Yen was weak across the board with both EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY flying at the start of the daily trade.
USD/JPY didn't get off to a great start and was trading pretty much flat as both the Dollar and Yen were weak.
But, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came out and pushed the pair up around 50 pips to the high.
Equities got a nice boost today which weakend the Dollar so we may see some profit taking tomorrow with a slightly stronger Dollar to help push USD/JPY higher.
The daily pivot R2 was sat on the 0.618 Fib level from 17/09-01/11 which also helped in capping the bull run.
I'll keep my initial target of 85.00 but am expecting a pull back to around 83.00 before a move higher to the highs and to test resistance at 84.00, which again will probably be quite strong but breakable to 85.00.

Daily


WSF M5

Great post....there's nothing more I can add to than except to hope that Bernanke doesn't interfere when he 'speaks' in about 12 hours time! There's not much other news to speak between now and then, so perhaps we might see come consolidation around the current level for a short while.

Irrespective of the pending Ireland bailout, I don't see the euro gaining too much more, and as you say, a stronger dollar will help push the Yen down....which will no doubt make Noda a happy camper.

I agree! We should see further consolidation going into the Asia session. Also I hope we start to see equity futures start to slide going into tomorrows trade to help support the Dollar further.
If we stay above the daily pivot S1 (around 83.15) or 83.00 going into the weekend I'll be as happy as Noda

Japanes Finance minister Noda on the wire forex.com says downside risk still exists for japanese economy

nearly there

The European Central Bank (ECB) has issued a clear warning that it will press ahead with plans to raise interest rates and withdraw lending support for banks despite the eurozone debt crisis, even if this risks pushing Ireland, Portugal and Spain into deeper trouble.

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/m...t_1765864c.jpg European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet warned Ireland not to depend on long-term support from Europe Photo: Reuters






By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 10:08PM GMT 18 Nov 2010 Comments


“The central bank must guard against the danger that the necessary measures in a crisis period evolve into a dependency as conditions normalise,” said Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB’s president.

Luxembourg’s ECB governor, Yves Mersch, echoed the warnings, saying the bank could not continue “cleaning up” in crises. “If rates are low for too long, this leads to a higher risk appetite. We will pay the price if we fail to confront these inevitable dangers,” he said.

More than 98pc of Spanish mortgages are priced off the floating Euribor rate. Any ECB rate rise would be devastating given that there is already a glut of 1.5m homes coming on to the market, according to consultants RR de Acuna.

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1. Patrick Honohan: Ireland's prophet and saviour
   
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2. Ireland denies 'surrendering sovereignty'
   
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3. Ireland's debt crisis in pictures
   
   17 Nov 2010
4. Dublin’s flight of fancy is cancelled, and bank’s governor saw it coming
   
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5. Ireland set to tap €80bn loan as it opens door to IMF mission
   
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6. Ireland opens door to IMF mission
   
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The ECB warnings came as a troika of officials from the ECB, the Commission, and the International Monetary Fund began a fact-finding mission in Dublin, examining books to determine whether Ireland is strong enough prop up its banking system.
Finance minister Brian Lenihan admitted that Dublin was considering “substantial contingency capital” to boost banks, but denied that this would burden the Irish state.
Dublin insists that there is no threat to Ireland’s 12.5pc corporation tax rate but Mary Lou McDonald from Sinn Féin said the country was essentially under foreign occupation. “Officials from the EU and IMF and any other vultures circling around this country should be told to get lost.”
Central bank governor Patrick Honohan said a rescue would amount to “tens of billions”. The Irish state is funded until June but this is proving no defence against a run on the banking system.
The euro recovered against the dollar and Europe’s bourses rallied on hopes that the Irish crisis has been contained, but Fitch Ratings said there was still “considerable uncertainty” about the fate of Irish bank debt and bondholder losses.
Credit default swaps on Irish, Greek, Portuguese and Spanish debt continued to hover at high levels yesterday amid confusion over the contagion risk.
Any bail-out depletes the EU’s €440bn (£374bn) rescue fund, reducing the safety buffer for other countries.
Each rescue reduces the number of donor states able to support the EU safety net, and tests political patience in Germany. “There is a danger that once Ireland has been dealt with markets will concentrate even more on countries such as Portugal and Spain,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann of Commerzbank.
Rescue loans for Ireland – as for Greece – add to the debt load without tackling the core problem of solvency. A view is taking hold in the markets that this policy merely delays the inevitable day of EMU debt restructuring.

uj hit tg

hi i had short the uj at 81.90 in average and hedge that at 83.60. like to know your view to release the hedge at wat level i can looking out. Thanks in advance

IMF’s Strauss Kahn: Europe has “serious growth problem”, productivity lags in Southern countries with competitiveness problems
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

IMF’s Strauss Kahn: Europe has “serious growth problem”, productivity lags in Southern countries with competitiveness problems


Sovereign debt crisis not over in Europe

1. Sovereign debt crisis not over in Europe
2. Medium-term fiscal consolidation crucial in Europe, job creation must be a priority
3. Europe needs to further integrate labour markets
4. Economic growth needs to be more balanceed, both globally and within Europe
5. It’s simply not true that surpluses are good and deficits are bad
6. Current account deficits in some European countries must shrink, domestic demand in Germany must rise

IMF’s Strauss Kahn: Europe has “serious growth problem”, productivity lags in Southern countries with competitiveness problems

 

1. Sovereign debt crisis not over in Europe
2. Medium-term fiscal consolidation crucial in Europe, job creation must be a priority
3. Europe needs to further integrate labour markets
4. Economic growth needs to be more balanceed, both globally and within Europe
5. It’s simply not true that surpluses are good and deficits are bad
6. Current account deficits in some European countries must shrink, domestic demand in Germany must rise
7. Immigration to Europe would boost long-term growth, good solution for skills shortage
8. China understands better that it may be in its’ own benefit to move in the right direction on imbalances
9. Chinese currency issue is not the single problem

Strauss Kahn’s comments have caused EUR/USD to dip below 1.3700, presently at 1.3698.

Afternoon traders!

It wasn't a terribly exciting day on Friday ending the day pretty much flat with a total daily range of about 50 pips.
We did although bounce off the daily pivot S1 and stayed around the 83.50 area for the rest of the day. Looking at the Yen crosses there wasn't much action for the Yen.
We did however see a break of the psychological level 10,000 on the Nikkei 225 which helped fuel risk appetite in Japan which was also supported by a weaker Yen.
There is also the possibility of larger funds closing their books for the end of the year. This could see a substantial amount of short covering which will help push the USD/JPY further north.

I still believe we will see a pull back to around 82.00 in the next 2 or 3 weeks which then should be well bid.
Underneath the Heikin Ashi we have a bullish looking daily candle to end the week, so may mean there are a couple more days of upwards momentum before long covering kicks in.

On the second chart we can see 83.75 was well rejected on Thursday without a retest of the top so far. 83.13 has been resilient support and resistance this week and I would favor a break to the upside above 83.60.

I remain long until a touch of 85.00 which should see substantial long covering more than short sellers stealing power.

Daily


Week M5

I too was pleased to see no break to the downside of 83 on Friday, and the push back up to end at 83.50 (ish) was quite encouraging. As you say, 83.60 is the 'line in the sand' and we may see that crumble this week. I think this is options expirey week, so Wednesday/Thursday may provide some volitility which could be just what this pair needs to break further north.

There doesn't seem to be any 'earth shattering' news due this week, so I guess it's all up to Ireland and Trichet to take centre stage. A bailout for Ireland sems to be on the cards for sometime this week, but I wouldn't imagine that it will have a huger effect on this pair.

The weekly chart looks good but the daily not so good until that 83.60 gets broken.