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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #232,741
  • Oct 25, 2010 3:06pm Oct 25, 2010 3:06pm
as we are mostly gj traders with a massive influence from uj we are watching history in the making - quite amazing if you love charting
  • #232,742
  • Oct 25, 2010 3:07pm Oct 25, 2010 3:07pm
short should place stop right above 127.03
I will update soon again but keep eye on 127.03 the week most important reverse level .
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  • #232,743
  • Oct 25, 2010 6:24pm Oct 25, 2010 6:24pm
Quoting fx-gucci
i did phone to say im not in south africa on that weekend. i was out of country . im sorry

thnx for phoning me, even w ecould not understand each other ..lool

poor eng ?

hey ..next time ..btw wht did you do here ?
illegal deals ?

you do told me you will call me on that weekend but guess you aint ga no gass money..i dont do illegal deal but came for visit to refresh my mind for 2 weeks, i see you guys speak whack English down there in SA Ungani, iya papa..
very dangerous and corrupt country..
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #232,744
  • Oct 25, 2010 7:11pm Oct 25, 2010 7:11pm
GBPLFX still inside the yelllow TL.

Will continue to hold my longs .

SL at BE +1 .TP open.

Good day to all.
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  • #232,745
  • Oct 25, 2010 7:14pm Oct 25, 2010 7:14pm
Quoting honeybhi
GBPLFX still inside the yelllow TL.

Will continue to hold my longs .

SL at BE +1 .TP open.

Good day to all.
If the BOJ intervenes in the next few days you will make bank...
  • #232,746
  • Oct 25, 2010 7:54pm Oct 25, 2010 7:54pm
Buying UJ now, potential downside is limited.
We're a 100 pips from all time low. Maybe it gets there, maybe not. Maybe BOJ intervenes.
or will UJ go to 75, 70, 60, and then to zero? Hard to believe. Would be fun though, US/Japan parity, $ 1 = 1 Yen, how does that sound?

But this means that downside for GJ is also limited.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #232,747
  • Oct 25, 2010 7:59pm Oct 25, 2010 7:59pm
Quoting maanawi
short should place stop right above 127.03
I will update soon again but keep eye on 127.03 the week most important reverse level .
i'm with you big man....just entered [email protected] SL 127.61.... i might get luck...
  • #232,748
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:00pm Oct 25, 2010 8:00pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Buying UJ now, potential downside is limited.
We're a 100 pips from all time low. Maybe it gets there, maybe not. Maybe BOJ intervenes.
or will UJ go to 75, 70, 60, and then to zero? Hard to believe. Would be fun though, US/Japan parity, $ 1 = 1 Yen, how does that sound?

But this means that downside for GJ is also limited.

Shamu
Cable effects
  • #232,749
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:11pm Oct 25, 2010 8:11pm
beljevina what's your opinions about gu gj?
thanks
  • #232,750
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:28pm Oct 25, 2010 8:28pm
Quoting Eulogy
Cable effects
you're right, I wish it was a little bit clearer when gj follows uj and when gu.
But gu has kind of strong support @ 1.5650 so downside there might also be limited.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #232,751
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:49pm Oct 25, 2010 8:49pm
Quoting KillerWhale
you're right, I wish it was a little bit clearer when gj follows uj and when gu.
Go tell Bernanke to stop with all the QE2 chatter and you'll have your wish.

Come Nov 3 I'm betting Cable to plummet when its revealed QE2 was a giant buy the rumour sell the fact event. Seriously when officials start jawboning the market when has it not been the case.

Paulson: the subprime problem has been largely contained
*Lehmans collapse*

Bernanke: this is a liquidity issue and not a solvency issue.
*FRE, FNM nationalised*

Bernanke/Geithner: We believe in a strong dollar
*dollar falls, and falls, and falls, and falls,.......etc*

Dubya Jnr: ...having trouble putting food on their families.
*in yo face......literally*

Paulson: when people know you have a bazooka in your pocket you won't have to use it.
*RPG exploded, you have no balls*

All above stooges: I did not have sexual relations with that woman........
*........... oh wait, .......*
  • #232,752
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:55pm Oct 25, 2010 8:55pm
Quoting Eulogy
Go tell Bernanke to stop with all the QE2 chatter and you'll have your wish.

Come Nov 3 I'm betting Cable to plummet when its revealed QE2 was a giant buy the rumour sell the fact event. Seriously when officials start jawboning the market when has it not been the case.

Paulson: the subprime problem has been largely contained
*Lehmans collapse*

Bernanke: this is a liquidity issue and not a solvency issue.
*FRE, FNM nationalised*

Bernanke/Geithner: We believe in a strong dollar
*dollar falls, and falls, and falls, and falls,.......etc*...
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #232,753
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:56pm Oct 25, 2010 8:56pm
Been a bit lazy to post updates lately - just getting back at GU for the poor PA it's giving us. :-)

I remain bearish on GU. Here's why. Check how wonderfully the (white) fibs from 1.6106 to 1.5648 has been adhered to (best seen on the H1) and all key fib levels visited and promptly rejected - no hanging out bouncing from fib to fib since the 1.61 rejection. Thus no buyers. And we're down to the last 23.6% of the fib, being held under a strictly respected downtrend line, but supported by the (light green H4) UTL from Sept 7-12, which is where we're resting now: that wedge created between those two would typically break to the downside, and with a vengance.

Note the prominent H4 (yellow) former support - widely respected providing major downside breakout prevention through Sept 23-Oct 12, but then smashed through on 2 occasions recently, and I now is significant upwards resistance. From a VSA perspective all upmoves appear to be sold into, and once the fib, TL or resistance is hit, there's a significant bearish bar printed just after that; this is evident on the H1, but also validated on M30 & M15.

PA is wedged in a little tight for the time remaining to London's session, so I expect a test to the upside that might reach the 61.8% fib and orange interim UTL intersection at around 1.582, but am expecting to see it rejected.

Note UK GDP is up at London morning session and expectations are for it to be poor. Should there be any surprise, I believe any upthrust will be sold into and used as a bull trap. A few other UK news events due up this week, but it is mostly the wide expectation and ethusiasm that the UK has shown for QE that will send sterling down as has occured with the USD. If the US does QE2, BoE will not be far behind, and may even beat them to the announce.

Once we break below that LTL I am looking for 1.552, some bounce up likely, but eventually still gunning for 1.534. Note Ashraf is of the same expectations, or is it me having his expectations ... regardless, trade what you're comfortable with. http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/
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  • #232,754
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:57pm Oct 25, 2010 8:57pm
Quoting KillerWhale
And hey, I'm 3 pips in the positive with U/J I'M WINNING.
Almost time to put a stop @ BE
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #232,755
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:59pm Oct 25, 2010 8:59pm
Quoting Beljevina
Been a bit lazy to post updates lately - just getting back at GU for the poor PA it's giving us. :-)

I remain bearish on GU. Here's why. Check how wonderfully the (white) fibs from 1.6106 to 1.5648 has been adhered to (best seen on the H1) and all key fib levels visited and promptly rejected - no hanging out bouncing from fib to fib since the 1.61 rejection. Thus no buyers. And we're down to the last 23.6% of the fib, being held under a strictly respected downtrend line, but supported by the (light green H4) UTL from Sept 7-12, which is where...
nope not just you. My short 1.5866 from earlier this month was initially placed with TP 1.535
  • #232,756
  • Oct 25, 2010 9:23pm Oct 25, 2010 9:23pm
GBPJPY looks awful. The white fib is from the 163 2009 high, down to the May 20 126.7 low. Going back through the summer and from the May 6 crash, the fibs have been adhered to perfectly. But, we've broken below as of yesterday, and are just barely hovering above for today, still. The Sept 15 intervention delayed what looked like an inevitable drop, and we've now surpassed that Sept 13 former low.

The Oct 20 upthrust was significantly sold into, and like USDJPY all up moves are opportunities to short; this is visible nicely on the H1.

Along with the bearish sterling outlook posted in my previous GBPUSD outlook, combined with further USDJPY declines leading up to Nov 3, I think we are poised for hundreds of pips down with GBPJPY, if not this week, next week at the latest. I'm looking for 500-700 pips - a Kaboom, as the veterans used to call it around here. One of my 5pm NY close MT4 long standing charts has been wiped out so my weekly view is compromised for now, but at minimum I recall 125 being some sort of interim support, on a potential trip down to the low 120's, as 118 is approached. No time like the present.

Just saw an update on Bloomberg and there is widespread sterling bearishness in the air. Here's a brief summary of their bullets:

- Sterling's fallen 6% against a major currency basket
- BNP Paribas expecting 1.40 by 2Q11
- UBS Sell Sterling against CHF, AUD, NOK as of Oct 21
- Morg Stanley - hinges as of todays data, but eventually expects sterling to weaken to 93 pence per Euro
- State Street - says sterling is undervalued against US$
- HSBC - further QE, sterling weakness expected

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  • #232,757
  • Oct 25, 2010 11:50pm Oct 25, 2010 11:50pm
http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/8988/gbpjpy8h.jpg


Selling 127.55. Target 125.66.
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #232,758
  • Oct 26, 2010 12:01am Oct 26, 2010 12:01am
Rejection at the UTL I mentioned previously looks feasible; upthrust met with selling volume - the m15/m30 bar closed close to the bottom in the last few minutes of it's printing. Similar scenario on EURUSD; the selling volume on EURUSD could be seen previously. Check the volume on that 2m sterling futures - looks like shorters to me. Watch for USDJPY weakness though. (Yes I know - way too many TLs & channels esp. on the EU, but hey, it works for me)
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  • #232,759
  • Oct 26, 2010 12:37am Oct 26, 2010 12:37am
SL moved to 127.TP open.
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  • #232,760
  • Oct 26, 2010 12:41am Oct 26, 2010 12:41am
Some funky action underway in USDJPY, helping my GBPUSD short but giving GBPJPY a lift ... on top of that, there may be some upside to UK GDP due in <1hr ... seems like it's going to be a whipsaw news announcement ... if there's a GDP upside surprise, I'll be selling into the "strength"/upthrust, hopefully at the peak.
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