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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #19,521
  • Oct 5, 2010 8:49pm Oct 5, 2010 8:49pm
I think they should just go guerila on forex traders asses and randomly over the next 2 months put 10 billion into the market to screw everyone shorting till they wipe their accounts lol.
  • #19,522
  • Oct 5, 2010 8:56pm Oct 5, 2010 8:56pm
If it can break the upper yellow line, i think it will touch the fibonacci-38.2, 83.34. Then if there is no big news, it will touch fibonacci-50.0, 83.46.
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  • #19,523
  • Oct 5, 2010 9:08pm Oct 5, 2010 9:08pm
Quoting realjumper
Of course it's out of date....it's not linked to any currency, and it has no use whatsoever. Sure it's pretty, but that doesn't cut it. As I said, it's only worth what people are prepared to pay for it. It has no intrinsic value of it's own.....it's coloured lead (for want of a better description), and in historical times it *was* a currency. No so long ago, it was the base of paper currency. Now, it's just a metal that out of date thinking dictates that it is truely worth something. It's not!! It's only worth is what people are prepared to pay...
Linked to a currency? What do you mean? And what is money to you? Is it not just pieces of paper to better facilitate barter? What if one day people decided they didn't want to honor your paper anymore? And don't laugh, it's happened many times before. It still happens today in some places. Your problem here is that you think of everything in terms of money, when money is in fact just another piece of puzzle floating in the pool of relativity.

Gold is worth money because it is scarce, like all commodities. Your paper is worth money because your government says it's worth money. When the government starts printing out more paper, it devalues the paper you currently hold. You can't print more gold(alchemy didn't really work out), so when the government violates that agreement with you(inflation), a sensible person would convert his money to alternative goods(one of which is gold). I can think of no simpler way to explain why gold is not worthless.


Quote
No. The scenario is very real......Cannon, Toyota etc are in dispair and pleading for help due to the high yen. Debt is a 260% of gdp (Greece was 160% of gdp), aging population, high unemployment, deflation etc etc. The sun is setting on the economy of Japan.....that's a fact.

I think you didn't get my point here. What I was pointing out was that your logic was flawed. A crippling strong yen does not burn people who are long yen.



Quote
Completely wrong. There isnt a single use for gold today. Anything gold was used for in the past, has been replaced by a cheap/better synthetic product.

Sure, you can use INFERIOR(read: cheaper) alternatives for some uses of gold. But don't kid yourself. Gold is still used for industry. Gold would not be so popular today no matter how scarce it is, if it were useless. The market is pretty rational about these things, even if the individual is not. Just wiki gold and see it's many uses. I repeat : it's not just for the jewellery.



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What has 200 tonnes of gold done for India? Wouldn't a better and more productive use for the money been to improve infastructure, poverty etc etc and drag themselves into the first world. It doesn't matter if a 3rd world country is hording a million tonnes of gold.....it's still a 3rd world country!!!

sigh. You seem to have a refreshingly naive outlook of the world. Would you have a similar opinion if instead of reading about India buying gold, you read that India holds the equivalent worth in foreign reserves? What if it bought USD instead? How does it help India then? It helps the same way as buying gold does...it diversifies risks. More specifically, it hedges against inflation. This has nothing to do with how much money could have been spent on infrastructure, etc. This money is part of the national reserves, and they chose to protect it in this way. It's not about making money. It's about trading off so they won't lose it.

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Hording gold does not make a country prosperous, rich, powerful, self siufficient or many other things. The only thing that changes is the 'cudos' or 'self esteem' of those who get high on worshipping a pile of metal that is utterly redundent!

And what are they actually hedging against???

You're begging the question here. As mentioned before, and easily google-able, gold is hardly redundant. I won't even go into the specifics of how in some doomsday scenarios, the people holding gold would be king, or how much closer we've come to said scenarios in the recent years. I'll just name one. I assume you're american, so this should hit close to home. If America is forced to pay off it's debts tommorrow, inflation in america would skyrocket. I'm not talking about a 2 % increase. I'm talking about galloping inflation. Your money would be worthless. You would be screaming and scrambling to hedge your money in anything. Gold, Silver, even pork bellies would sound like a great investment.

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This debate is an interesting one, and one I've had before and it aways reaches a stalemate....and that's cool, that's what makes such debates interesting.

I know that my view on gold is radical to many.....but have a think about it one day......sooner or later (perhaps not for many years), the human worship of gold will end.....and our descendants will wonder what the hell we were smokin!!!)

I would hardly call it a debate if the bedrock of your argument is based on the belief that gold is a redundant metal and not used at all in industry. Here, I'll even google it for you:

http://geology.com/minerals/gold/uses-of-gold.shtml
  • #19,524
  • Oct 5, 2010 9:26pm Oct 5, 2010 9:26pm
Indeed, cash or any type of currency is at the least less valueable in real terms than gold. It would be even if it was only used for jewelery unless there is a serious tree shortage soon for printing more money at some point.
  • #19,525
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:12pm Oct 5, 2010 10:12pm
Quoting deathbait
Linked to a currency? What do you mean? And what is money to you? Is it not just pieces of paper to better facilitate barter? What if one day people decided they didn't want to honor your paper anymore? And don't laugh, it's happened many times before. It still happens today in some places. Your problem here is that you think of everything in terms of money, when money is in fact just another piece of puzzle floating in the pool of relativity.

Gold is worth money because it is scarce, like all commodities. Your paper is worth money because your...
Well, you obviously are closed minded about the subject so you're right, it's no longer a debate.

Trade well
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #19,526
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:15pm Oct 5, 2010 10:15pm
beginning to see how your other "debates" ended in "stalemates"
  • #19,527
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:16pm Oct 5, 2010 10:16pm
Quoting deathbait
beginning to see how your other "debates" ended in "stalemates"
Exactly......closed minded and arrogant people are everywhere
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #19,528
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:17pm Oct 5, 2010 10:17pm
as i mentioned at #19525, it will give a direction.
  • #19,529
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:32pm Oct 5, 2010 10:32pm
Quoting realjumper
You mean like the Aussie wrestler....wait a minute....it was silver.....wait on....he got disqualified for making a rude gesture to the judges.....lol....
haha. touché
  • #19,530
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:35pm Oct 5, 2010 10:35pm
Quoting realjumper
Exactly......closed minded and arrogant people are everywhere
You may be surprised a bit, but following your discussion and arguments I rather see the closemindedness and arrogance on your side...
  • #19,531
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:46pm Oct 5, 2010 10:46pm
Quoting JanPoko
You may be surprised a bit, but following your discussion and arguments I rather see the closemindedness and arrogance on your side...
Well that's your opinion, and of course you're entitled to it.

The reaction I get from most, but not all, people when this topic comes up is the same....200 year old thinking!!

If you always do what you've always done.....you'll always get what you've always had!

Thinking outside the square should be encouaged, but I suppose it's easier to follow the crowd.

Whatever.....trade well and have a happy day
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #19,532
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:47pm Oct 5, 2010 10:47pm
Quoting iamboston
haha. touché
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #19,533
  • Oct 5, 2010 11:05pm Oct 5, 2010 11:05pm
thinking outside the box is creativity and should be encouraged.

reaching inside and pulling nonsense from said box to support your views is well...playground mentality.


Gold was a proxy for value for ages because of it's scarcity. It's not going to change, especially as we find more and more uses for gold. It doesn't just look good...it has many unique uses other metals just can't measure up to. I've linked a simple reference for you, but you obviously don't want to be confused by facts.

But hey, let's ignore all that. We'll do this the old fashioned way : I bet my dad can beat up your dad.
  • #19,534
  • Oct 5, 2010 11:33pm Oct 5, 2010 11:33pm
Quoting deathbait
thinking outside the box is creativity and should be encouraged.

reaching inside and pulling nonsense from said box to support your views is well...playground mentality.


Gold was a proxy for value for ages because of it's scarcity. It's not going to change, especially as we find more and more uses for gold. It doesn't just look good...it has many unique uses other metals just can't measure up to. I've linked a simple reference for you, but you obviously don't want to be confused by facts.

But hey, let's ignore all that. We'll do this the...
I was going to reply in depth to this, but your condescending attitude amkes me realise that discussing this with you is impossible. And I'm sure that this correspondence is polluting the forum.

But I have to comment on your scarcity idea of gold......gold is *still* being produced in excess of 2,000 tonnes/year....but you knew that I'm sure.

But hey...have it your way.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #19,535
  • Oct 5, 2010 11:45pm Oct 5, 2010 11:45pm
BOJ is still trying to talk down the Yen.....the method is different, but the message the same: http://www.forexlive.com/137240/all/...temporary-slip
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #19,536
  • Oct 5, 2010 11:45pm Oct 5, 2010 11:45pm
12 trading days of bearish daily candles. when will it end.
  • #19,537
  • Oct 6, 2010 12:00am Oct 6, 2010 12:00am
Quoting realjumper
I was going to reply in depth to this, but your condescending attitude amkes me realise that discussing this with you is impossible. And I'm sure that this correspondence is polluting the forum.

But I have to comment on your scarcity idea of gold......gold is *still* being produced in excess of 2,000 tonnes/year....but you knew that I'm sure.

But hey...have it your way.
you were never going to reply in depth to this topic because there's no depth in your argument. You sweep aside the facts i put forth and just continue repeating your mantra of "200 year old thinking! you're not as smart as me!".

Input rate(production) means nothing to the idea of scarcity without consulting the output rate(consumption). Crude Oil is drilled to the point of madness, and no one would hesitate to point out that it is scarce. From an economics point of view, every good is scarce(or the price would be 0). It's the degree of scarcity that matters.

And then there's your absurd notion that gold is not valuable because it's not linked to any currency. It's exactly the reverse that's true. The moment paper currency was lifted off the gold standard, it's printed value became a value relative to other goods/currencies. You are taking this floating value and using it as an anchor to determine the worth of the goods you can buy, where you should actually be using the goods to calculate the worth of your money.

What good is 10000 dollars in your hand if you can only buy 1kg of X with it tomorrow? (X can be any commodity) What if you could buy 2kg of X today with the 10000 dollars? Would you buy it? And if you did, when it costs 10000 for 1kg of X tomorrow, did you make money?(ANS: you made money, but your value is relatively the same, of course dependant on other factors which this thought experiment will ignore, like demand/supply)


Of course, I'll grant you that the current state of gold will not continue forever. With our knowledge of physics getting closer and closer to unlocking the true power of the atom, widescale alchemy may one day be possible. Scarcity of gold goes down, as does it's price. Or perhaps we may create new elements that work just as well. Nothing is impossible. But not for the reasons you give.
  • #19,538
  • Oct 6, 2010 12:04am Oct 6, 2010 12:04am
82.50 expecting today
  • #19,539
  • Oct 6, 2010 12:10am Oct 6, 2010 12:10am
if it ever hits 82.5, i think it might keep going
  • #19,540
  • Oct 6, 2010 12:16am Oct 6, 2010 12:16am
Quoting deathbait
if it ever hits 82.5, i think it might keep going
yep, why not..
wait for Tokyo closed and maybe then
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