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DanUK's Advanced Trend Trading Strategy

  • #361
  • Oct 4, 2010 11:54am Oct 4, 2010 11:54am
Quoting bez3000
Hi FutureAce,

I'm not Dan but imo the trend has been up on audnzd, so going short would be counter trend, my opinion for whats it's worth would be to look at going long this pair if price could brake 1.3200 (it's previous high) then enter long on a retrace to that area.

Interested to see what Dan thinks?
ya thats true...maybe should i have waited till a bit retrace and then enter the long
  • #362
  • Oct 4, 2010 12:18pm Oct 4, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting dan89
EUR/CHF looks like a nice setup. Breaish outside bar at trendline .. waiting for the close of the candle

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/demo/20101004-lpd9-206kb
what about the trendline guys
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  • #363
  • Oct 4, 2010 12:25pm Oct 4, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting bez3000
Dan what do you think of a possible long at 1.3850 area? Possibly the start of a bull trend????
Hi bez3000,

Ideally I would like to see this reach at least 1.37 before getting in; my view is something like this...
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  • #364
  • Oct 4, 2010 12:28pm Oct 4, 2010 12:28pm
Quoting dan89
Hey Dan, i know you get a lot of questions but i was wondering if you could post the pairs that you are currently looking at that are at 'areas of interest' or near areas of interest without actually posting the chart. Just post the names e.g. NZD/USD. That way i can test myself and see if i can get to the same conclusion as you. ?

Dan
Hi Dan,

Ok... today the EUR/GBP caught my eye - I'll let you fill in the rest!

Regards,

Dan
  • #365
  • Oct 4, 2010 12:30pm Oct 4, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting Sjr
Hi Dan,

Newbie here. Apologies if already asked. I hear a lot of traders say risk no more than 2-2.5% max on anyone trade. So, If I were to risk 2% of my acct per trade, that would mean approx $100 risk per $5,000 , $200 risk per $10,000 in Acct size etc . As an example, if I put my SL just beyond a pin Bar and its $80 away, and im trading a mini acct with 10K that would mean trading up to a max of 3 lots ($240)for that one trade? Is that how you look at your initial SL? Thanks in advance.
Hi Sjr,

Yes, if I understand you correctly that is about right. Oanda is great for this because you can break your position size down to the exact % figure.

Regards,

Dan
  • #366
  • Oct 4, 2010 12:34pm Oct 4, 2010 12:34pm
Quoting dan89
EUR/CHF looks like a nice setup. Breaish outside bar at trendline .. waiting for the close of the candle

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/demo/20101004-lpd9-206kb
Hi dan89,

I have been watching this pair and will be looking to short around 1.3250 due to 3300 S&R getting broken as well as the counter trend line and if price closes down at the 3250 area it will complete a nice looking BEOB.
  • #367
  • Oct 4, 2010 12:36pm Oct 4, 2010 12:36pm
Quoting Pirabuji
Hi Dan,

Please can you review the attached weekly charts and tell me if I'm plotting the areas on interest correctly? Are there any you would have missed of or are they any that I've missed off?

Thank you,
Hi Pirabuji,

Good job I like your charts. I would say you have pretty much got it covered!

Regards,

Dan
  • #368
  • Oct 4, 2010 12:56pm Oct 4, 2010 12:56pm
Quoting Danku
hey DanUK....nice going. Just a request, could you please elaborate on this with some 3 or 4 charts, i have gone through the thread and i think this is one of the most important parts, for me that is, obviously with money management.........cheers...........and nice weekend all..........
Hi Danku,

Ok... hopefully this little GBP/USD example should explain it a little better.

The first chart shows March/April this year where the previous high (in the downtrend) marked with a red arrow was broken; now this could have been a signal that the trend was changing but I was also interested in how price would react at the key s/r level around 1.5500 - as you can see, in this instance the level held price back and the downtrend continued.

The second chart shows May/June this year - again the previous high (marked by the red arrow) was broken; another signal that the trend could be changing but I was also interested in how price would react at the key s/r level around 1.4800 - in this instance price broke the level (after a few attempts) and a new uptrend began.

Hopefully that shows better how I use a combination of highs/lows and the key s/r levels to define a change of trend. There are of course times when a trendline also comes into play - but a break of that should be fairly self explanatory!

Regards,

Dan
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  • #369
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:02pm Oct 4, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting adowland
DanUK, thanks for your , as always , courteous reply. I have also (just today in fact) started to read pipEASY's thread "building an equity millipede" which to my way of thinking at the moment fits hand and glove to your teaching. Between the two of you you have moved me off the short term thinking I have been using to trade and desperately chasing trades on the shorter term fluctuations to moving over to the long term way of building your trades and then your equity. The crucial bit is picking the low risk entry points, master that as you have...
Hi Alex,

Actually someone else sent me a message about pipEASY's thread and I have had a read of the first few pages... it seems like a sensible approach (being that it's similar to mine lol) - I didn't quite understand the entries but I imagine that's besides the point... from what I read it's more about holding onto those good trades for as long as possible (something I like too!). Seems like a good thread!

I too have courted the lower time frames and as much as I enjoyed it, the commitment (time wise) was just too much for me! Hence, higher time frames have come out on top for me.

Ahhh my zen like responses!! Unfortunately that's not by design - just by coincidence that I am quite a busy chap! But I'm glad the wait has proved to be positive - something I shall bear in mind for future replies!

Regards,

Dan
  • #370
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:09pm Oct 4, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting Duke900
[font=Arial][size=2][font=Arial][size=2]Dan,

Great thread.
After many years trading short time frames I am now trading longer term and your thread is a breath of fresh air.

I have top and bottom picked doing every method possible without great success. Its just to dam hard and not consistent enough.

[size=2][font=Arial]Enter trading with the trend... wow... what an idea... cant believe I have waited years...
Hi Duke900,

Thank you for your compliments! Trend trading has always been of interest to me, it just seems to make more sense to me to stack the odds in your favour by getting in something that's already moving in a certain direction.

I have looked at some of Gann's stuff and it has been very interesting but I never seemed to make much sense out of it! I tend to prefer to keep things a little simpler!

But I'm afraid I must agree to some extent with pipmyride! I do understand the subconscious desire to add the odd indicator to "help" - even if only for the visual aspect but I believe they actually hinder in learning the art of reading a chart. Once you learn to read a chart without the need for any indicators it makes trading much easier and kind of liberates you from the need of any additional confirmation. Hope that makes sense lol!

Regards,

Dan
  • #371
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:15pm Oct 4, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting Abinadi
Hey Dan,

Thanks for the helpful thread on trading with the trend - certainly my favorite form of trading as well.

I am posting to ask if you would just provide a checklist of the ways you are assessing when the trend has/is finished. I'm thinking you probably have a list (mentally if not literally) of specific things that you are looking for to help you guage if a trend is done.

I am a private pilot and checklists have saved my life more times than I can count. I use them for preflight, pre-takeoff (end of runway runup), prior to entering...
Hi Abinadi,

Thank you for your interesting post. Although I have never written it down, I would say that my checklist goes like this...

1. Has price broken the previous swing high (in a downtrend) or swing low (in an uptrend)?

2. Has price broken key s/r level relative to the most recent swing high or low?

3. Has price broken the trendline?

4. Before any of 1, 2 or 3 - did price bounce off of a key s/r level?

5. Before any of 1, 2 or 3 - did price consolidate for a reasonable period of time?

I think they are the questions I tend to ask myself when analysing a possible change of trend.

Regards,

Dan
  • #372
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:17pm Oct 4, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting TheFutureAce
Hi Danuk...what do you think of the PIN BAR on AUDNZD? is it a valid setup to get a short going just below the pin bar....
Hi TheFutureAce,

I didn't get a pin on my feed but I would say that the AUD/NZD is currently in an uptrend and would therefore be looking for a place to get long rather than short.

Regards,

Dan
  • #373
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:21pm Oct 4, 2010 1:21pm
Quoting GJP
Hi Dan,

Can you clear something up for me, do you always wait for S/R to be broken and then retrace before you enter the trade? When you say you trade from S/R areas, do you only mean major S/R areas?

Thanks Dan.
Hi GJP,

Yes I suppose so... if price is moving down I would want to see it break through a s/r level and enter (with a valid signal) as price comes back up to test it.

What do you mean by "major" s/r areas?

Regards,

Dan
  • #374
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:32pm Oct 4, 2010 1:32pm
Quoting gododdin
Hi Dan - a couple of questions re your method if I may:

How do you treat Sunday bars - just like any other? I'm curious because some people say that they should be disregarded for technical purposes.

Do you ever take a 4 hour trade in the direction of the trend and then 'promote' it to a longer term daily trade?

Thanks, G
Hi gododdin,

I think Alpari UK (who I use for charting) build their Sunday bar into Monday so you could say I do pay attention to them but not as a separate bar!

Yes this is exactly how I play my long term 4 hour trades... I will be looking for entries at the same place as my daily trades but I might be in early because of a setup on the H4 charts. This is not something I have gone into here yet because I think it is important for people to become profitable on the dailies first.

Regards,

Dan
  • #375
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:42pm Oct 4, 2010 1:42pm
My concern with this potential trade is that at the moment it is sitting right on top of s/r (shown in blue) as well as the developing trendline.

I would prefer to see price get below this level then come back up to retest it and fail. That would see the trendline break too.

For me it is a pass unless we close below all that trouble!
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  • #376
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:54pm Oct 4, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting podgy
what about the trendline guys
Yeah i posted that earlier saying a break and retest of that tredline with valid PA would be a better option

DAn
  • #377
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:57pm Oct 4, 2010 1:57pm
Quoting dan89
Yeah i posted that earlier saying a break and retest of that tredline with valid PA would be a better option

DAn
I tend to agree... although that would probably mean dropping down to the H4 charts; so be aware that as a signal it wouldn't be as reliable as a daily.

Regards,

Dan
  • #378
  • Oct 4, 2010 2:15pm Oct 4, 2010 2:15pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi Dan,

Ok... today the EUR/GBP caught my eye - I'll let you fill in the rest!

Regards,

Dan
Hey Dan, thanks for the reply, its nice to know that im thinking or similar lines as yourself lol. Atleast im improving.

Lets see if im on the same line with this pair you mentioned ...

Previous S/R
.8500 Round Number
Inside Bar

I cant see any obvious trendline or Fib though ..

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Dan
  • #379
  • Oct 4, 2010 2:24pm Oct 4, 2010 2:24pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi bez3000,

Ideally I would like to see this reach at least 1.37 before getting in; my view is something like this...
Thanks Dan looks a better entry price
  • #380
  • Oct 4, 2010 2:32pm Oct 4, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi Dan,

Ok... today the EUR/GBP caught my eye - I'll let you fill in the rest!

Regards,

Dan
Glad to see i am spotting the same pairs as you Dan. Definitely think i am getting there.
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