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EURUSD

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#276,341
Jul 29, 2010 9:23am Jul 29, 2010 9:23am

KennyZ
Joined Jul 2010 | Status: KIS | 1,578 Posts

Quoting sed34

Disliked

what is propping this pair up? dow is selling off. Most people expect a drop. Why won't this thing hurry up and fall.

Ignored

Let's face it. If it happens as expected, there is no fun in it, is there. In markets, making money with crowd is not so easy.

#276,342
Jul 29, 2010 9:23am Jul 29, 2010 9:23am

Larseg
Joined May 2009 | Status: Re-member | 6,497 Posts

Quoting gatorinla

Disliked

well i posted long before your chart about the weakening euro. anyway that...

Ignored

Interesting shit here Gator, I see your point clearly. In my eyes I think the carry trade says alot. If everything was so bad, the interest had to change... or??

I have no idea how to (so I don't) trade funnymentals but it's interesting stuff...

Love to you from Lars after a couple of beers...

#276,343
Jul 29, 2010 9:24am Jul 29, 2010 9:24am

sisse
Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts

Yes I do agree with you on the European economic outlook in the long run. High social cost, aging population, loosing competitiveness, inflexible labour markets,etc. I also agree on the bs about banks is just there to fool the sheep.

However, a "hard" currency valuation is not only based on that long term problems (yes it is a problem in the very long run I don't deny it) but also is based on economic and trade size, low inflation, stable monetary policies and reserves, global importance in trade, etc and obviously political stability.

And thats where the Eurozone become strong. Maybe not necessarily because is very good but becasue there is no where else in the world to look in terms of size and those requirements (except obviously the US and Japan...Canada, Australia, UK, Switzerland are way "too small" as hard currencies and China is only size and a power house GDP wise but the political & social insecurity and poverty put them down in the list as world currency).

In other word the economic size and the political & economic importance of the Eurozone are the reasons why the Euro is not going to completely collapse (NOt even the US cant afford the Euro zone going down) and those are reason that one shouldn't underestimate when judging the euro (...lol I starting to copy Trichet in ECB press conference with that).

In any case, good to have a good discussion on fundamentals while the markets are in choppy mode.

sisse

Quoting gatorinla

Disliked

well i posted long before your chart about the weakening euro. anyway that...

Ignored

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now

#276,344
Jul 29, 2010 9:29am Jul 29, 2010 9:29am

wm-eu
Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Trader | 605 Posts

Quoting moonchild

Disliked

Looks like a double top or 2 pin bars on the 1H.

The bulls have not given up but do not seem to be able to get past 1.3100.

A little early to be sure but it looks as though this is going down. My concern with shorting would be if there were bad GDP numbers for the US tomorrow.

Ignored

yeah, the gdp could be critical - now it seems that it's forming maybe a kind of shs

Pecunia non olet

#276,345
Jul 29, 2010 9:29am Jul 29, 2010 9:29am

Mr Bull
| Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trader | 320 Posts

Quoting Santana33

Disliked

The willingness of big fishs who knows lot of money going short so they took it away from you.

Ignored

Exactly. And the news that are coming out today. Along with the Moody's rumour,

House committee to hold hearings on China FX on September 15

Written by Jamie Coleman
July 29, 2010 at 15:27 GMT

Get the cameras ready. Just in time for the fall elections, the House Ways and Means committee will hold hearings on China’s deliberately undervalued, unfair currency which is costing the US jobs (according to the committee chair).

and
Fed’s Bullard: More QE, not extended period lanquage

Written by Jamie Coleman
July 29, 2010 at 16:07 GMT

St. Louis Fed president Bullard says in a paper that it is better to resort to more buying of US Treasuries in case of falling consumer prices than to extending the extended language period over the medium-term. That language could cause inflation to drop as well as inflation expectations.

Source:
www.forexlive.com

I guess there are a lot of people dumping dollars, just in case....

#276,346
Jul 29, 2010 9:36am Jul 29, 2010 9:36am

kandarv
| Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Trend rider & Big Old Boy Wannabe | 877 Posts

Quoting sisse

Disliked

Yes I do agree with you on the European economic outlook in the long run. High social cost, aging population, loosing competitiveness, inflexible labour markets,etc. I also agree on the bs about banks is just there to fool the sheep.

However, a "hard" currency valuation is not only based on that long term problems (yes it is a problem in the very long run I don't deny it) but also is based on economic and trade size, low inflation, stable monetary policies and reserves, global importance in trade, etc and obviously political stability....

Ignored

That's my thought too, there are some unrealistic pessimist view of the current economy. I just think that investors need to put money somewhere. They can't afford to stand still for too long. So far the eurozone has shown more discipline than the US, there's also education issues and employment.

Right now, a cheap euro doesn't help US economy so maybe they are also buying €, besides China of course.

Commodities are going down as demand goes down, so bad for CAD and AUD. Right now I'm looking for a bottom at AUDJPY to buy me a big fat long position.

#276,347
Jul 29, 2010 9:45am Jul 29, 2010 9:45am

gatorinla
Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 105,146 Posts

Quoting sisse

Disliked

Yes I do agree with you on the European economic outlook in the long run. High social cost, aging population, loosing competitiveness, inflexible labour markets,etc. I also agree on the bs about banks is just there to fool the sheep.

However, a "hard" currency valuation is not only based on that long term problems (yes it is a problem in the very long run I don't deny it) but also is based on economic and trade size, low inflation, stable monetary policies and reserves, global importance in trade, etc and obviously political stability....

Ignored

im not gonna get that deep. but euro and chf is the anti usd. both ride with commodities coattails. canada and austrailia have commodities. and they can support banking and manufacturing. if japan, a tiny country living on a active volcano can (with no commodities). then surely the loonies and roos can do it. as well as the many others.

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can

#276,348
Jul 29, 2010 9:49am Jul 29, 2010 9:49am

sisse
Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts

That's a very good point. The debt crisis, forced all EU countries including the UK to start serious adjustment measures (if some small undisciplined ones don't follow that's another question) and I thing that will be reflected in the pound and the euro in the next few months... while the US hasn't even start talking about their fiscal and debt problems and that can lead to a weaker dollar in the months to come... we 'll see

sisse

Quoting kandarv

Disliked

That's my thought too, there are some unrealistic pessimist view of the current economy....

Ignored

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now

#276,349
Jul 29, 2010 9:52am Jul 29, 2010 9:52am

gatorinla
Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 105,146 Posts

Quoting sisse

Disliked

That's a very good point. The debt crisis, forced all EU countries including the UK to start serious adjustment measures (if some small undisciplined ones don't follow that's another question) and I thing that will be reflected in the pound and the euro in the next few months... while the US hasn't even start talking about their fiscal and debt problems and that can lead to a weaker dollar in the months to come... we 'll see

sisse

Ignored

good point.. but its no secret. the ones keeping secrets, keep them for a reason.

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can

#276,350
Jul 29, 2010 9:54am Jul 29, 2010 9:54am

sisse
Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts

Oh come on. Look at the GDP size and trade importance of Japan (is still bigger than China WB 2009)... Even Brazil. India, Mexico and S Korea are more important trade wise than Canada and Australia...

sisse

Quoting gatorinla

Disliked

im not gonna get that deep. but euro and chf is the anti usd. both ride with commodities coattails. canada and austrailia have commodities. and they can support banking and manufacturing. if japan, a tiny country living on a active volcano can (with no commodities). then surely the loonies and roos can do it. as well as the many others.

Ignored

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now

#276,351
Jul 29, 2010 9:55am Jul 29, 2010 9:55am

Mr Bull
| Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trader | 320 Posts

Quoting gatorinla

Disliked

they are terrible. its no secret. .. so what now? things are terrible in the consuming country. what happens to the exporting ones? s. korea is devaluing to keep up on export declining fears. on the other hand ez tightens with stress test. who wins? well jd powers says s. korea..
you do know im talking in longer tf? from 5m to a few months then years..?

Ignored

I think you did a very good analysis in your posts. I agree with you to some extend but you have to see the other side and if you think for a while, USA also have most of those problems you mentioned and even in a worst degree. Just think about their debt. And if a rating agency thinks about downgrading USA, that just means something is really wrong.

The stress tests goal was to restore the confidence in the european financial institutions because the rating agencies were damaging it. With all the downgrades they made week after week, they were limiting the access of european banks to credit. So, EU had to do something.
Like many european leaders said in the last months, the problem was not a weak euro, because that indeed help EZ exporting their goods.

I think some people here don't understand that a weak dollar will benefit mainly USA and a weak euro will benefit mainly Euro. I see posts talking over and over about ECB interventions and that this is a bullsh*t trend. Have you ever thaught that it might be USA that is intervening in the market? Do you think a country that is involved in everything that is big in this planet would stay aside from the biggest market in the world? Think about that.

#276,352
Jul 29, 2010 9:59am Jul 29, 2010 9:59am

gatorinla
Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 105,146 Posts

Quoting sisse

Disliked

Oh come on. Look at the GDP size and trade importance of Japan... Even Brazil. India, Mexico and S Korea are more important trade wise than Canada and Australia...

sisse

Ignored

im talking future.. not today.. gdp? where was uk gdp wise when sterling was over 2 bucks per usd?

Inserted Video

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can

#276,353
Jul 29, 2010 10:08am Jul 29, 2010 10:08am

gatorinla
Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 105,146 Posts

Quoting Mr Bull

Disliked

I think you did a very good analysis in your posts. I agree with you to some extend but you have to see the other side and if you think for a while, USA also have most of those problems you mentioned and even in a worst degree. Just think about their debt. And if a rating agency thinks about downgrading USA, that just means something is really wrong.

The stress tests goal was to restore the confidence in the european financial institutions because the rating agencies were damaging it. With all the downgrades they made week after week, they were...

Ignored

we all are in deep shit and we are chained together at the ankles. given that if all goes to shit. the u.s. still has commodities. and can build or grow all it needs. the truth is the government spends more protecting importers to the u.s., then it recoups in exports. that weak usd crap has raped the middle class. the sheep see their house go up in value and dance.. when in reality the dollar just lost value. in reality they are poorer.

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can

#276,354
Jul 29, 2010 10:17am Jul 29, 2010 10:17am

fontu
Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts

Back to take some pips again , yes now took longs for 1.3130 -40 target as seeing the camel about to extend the neck up.
lets see what actually .
fontu

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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++

#276,355
Jul 29, 2010 10:21am Jul 29, 2010 10:21am

dreed
| Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Trader | 861 Posts

I have no clue, but it's typical during the U.S. Session that something like this would happen... Stock Market Down, & Euro Dollar Going Up... That's why I stick with the London Session. If it breaks below 3050, I think you may continue to see it fall back to 3010 area, before going higher.

Quoting sed34

Disliked

what is propping this pair up? dow is selling off. Most people expect a drop. Why won't this thing hurry up and fall.

Ignored

#276,356
Jul 29, 2010 10:22am Jul 29, 2010 10:22am

Martingale
| Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Volume is everything | 972 Posts

Quoting dreed

Disliked

I have no clue, but it's typical during the U.S. Session that something like this would happen... Stock Market Down, & Euro Dollar Going Up... That's why I stick with the London Session.

Ignored

some people call me space cowboy.. na na nanananananna

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