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Silent Service Method

  • #10,081
  • Jul 28, 2010 2:33pm Jul 28, 2010 2:33pm
Falling wedge is a bullish pattern.

http://i28.tinypic.com/24wx0t2.png
  • #10,082
  • Jul 28, 2010 7:11pm Jul 28, 2010 7:11pm
i was referring to 0:00 eastern

Bethel

Quoting 4xAddict
Which timezone is your broker in Bethel?
  • #10,083
  • Jul 28, 2010 7:22pm Jul 28, 2010 7:22pm
May I assume that you guys are NOT using the MT4 MACD, because it doesn't show the difference between the MACD line and signal line? I know that the MACD histogram (that difference between the MACD line and signal line) is what we'd use for divergence... and I know divergence is one of the things we look out for.

MACD = EMA[fast,12] – EMA[slow,26]
signal = EMA[period,9] of MACD
histogram = MACD – signal <--MT4 MACD does not show this

I actually use OsMa, which is precisely that histogram. Or do you have a special indicator for calculating it? Thanks! (BTW, OsMa comes standard in MT4.)
  • #10,084
  • Jul 28, 2010 7:51pm Jul 28, 2010 7:51pm
Come on EUR/USD....break the last two days and I can short you again.....
  • #10,085
  • Jul 28, 2010 10:45pm Jul 28, 2010 10:45pm
Quoting clockwork71
Yes, I am not looking to sell gold. I am looking to sell the AUD. I am looking to buy gold, and Lord please let it be near $1000. I would LOVE to see a chance there, and this chart (above) shows I might get it.
I'm with you there Chris - I think I'm getting close to my second trade in 2 months lol.

Re gold . I've been looking to buy the physical stuff for some time and I would also love to see $1000. Theres a couple of currencies I just can't buy atm, as you probably know, well I also just can't sell gold, so every dip is a buying opp to me, especially if it hits $1000.
  • #10,086
  • Jul 28, 2010 10:52pm Jul 28, 2010 10:52pm
Quoting clockwork71
Yes, I am not looking to sell gold. I am looking to sell the AUD. I am looking to buy gold, and Lord please let it be near $1000. I would LOVE to see a chance there, and this chart (above) shows I might get it.
Re the AUD, you might like to watch this Chris, Ashraf is also looking to sell the Aussie, but not against the dollar.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2613
  • #10,087
  • Jul 29, 2010 12:52am Jul 29, 2010 12:52am
Quoting stewrigh
Re the AUD, you might like to watch this Chris, Ashraf is also looking to sell the Aussie, but not against the dollar.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2613
Who is Ashraf?
Where is aussie looking weak? Looks strong all over here.

Nzdusd has presented a dilemma. A perfect hammer in a perfect area at 8am! 14 hours to go...

Id not be doing anything with eurousd. The last 2 days moved an average of less than 80 pips each. There is no A grade trade there. Not even a D grade trade
  • #10,088
  • Jul 29, 2010 1:18am Jul 29, 2010 1:18am
Quoting jicjoc
Who is Ashraf?
Where is aussie looking weak? Looks strong all over here.

Nzdusd has presented a dilemma. A perfect hammer in a perfect area at 8am! 14 hours to go...

Id not be doing anything with eurousd. The last 2 days moved an average of less than 80 pips each. There is no A grade trade there. Not even a D grade trade
Hi J,

Ashraf works for CMC markets. Not saying he's right but a few of us are looking for short opps on the Aussie and this is just another opinion, albeit he works in the forex business, so mabe he knows more than I do?.

Ur right the Aussie is looking strong atm but....I think a lot of that is bcos ppl are/were expecting a rate hike next week and this is now unlikely after this weeks CPI figure.

Not saying sell the Aussie now, but I'm expecting it to turn soon.
  • #10,089
  • Jul 29, 2010 3:57am Jul 29, 2010 3:57am
.8850 is strong support now on aussie. I think i mistyped and said .845 yesterday. I wouldnt short until it can penetrate this level and then hopefully come back up and retest it from the south. That would be my perfect short entry.

Right now the bulls are very much in charge though
  • #10,090
  • Jul 29, 2010 5:49am Jul 29, 2010 5:49am
Quoting stewrigh
Re the AUD, you might like to watch this Chris, Ashraf is also looking to sell the Aussie, but not against the dollar.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2613

Yeah, I watch that actually. I like his stuff.
  • #10,091
  • Jul 29, 2010 5:50am Jul 29, 2010 5:50am
Quoting jicjoc
Who is Ashraf?
Where is aussie looking weak? Looks strong all over here.

Nzdusd has presented a dilemma. A perfect hammer in a perfect area at 8am! 14 hours to go...

Id not be doing anything with eurousd. The last 2 days moved an average of less than 80 pips each. There is no A grade trade there. Not even a D grade trade
The Euro bulls have finally broke through. This thing is just grinding higher. Slowly.....no technical set up yet, but they did manage to break a duel pin set up.....so that is bullish.
  • #10,092
  • Jul 29, 2010 6:21am Jul 29, 2010 6:21am
Quoting InfinitySL
Gold priced in Euros...
Attachment
Since these are two securities we've been talking alot about lately, I thought I would update a chart I posted a while back...

This chart continued... 865(ish) support?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-07-29 XAUEUR.png Size: 60 KB
  • #10,093
  • Jul 29, 2010 6:30am Jul 29, 2010 6:30am
Quoting InfinitySL
Since these are two securities we've been talking alot about lately, I thought I would update a chart I posted a while back...

This chart continued... 865(ish) support?
Attachment
Are you cleaning up S?
  • #10,094
  • Jul 29, 2010 6:36am Jul 29, 2010 6:36am
I think I may have mentioned I don't like trend lines.

But I've been playing with my charts today and tried a few tl's for fun(you can tell I'm bored).

This is what I see on GBPAUD.

Not sure what to make of this but bcos I'm bearish the AUD and GBP I probly won't trade it - even if I could see what it was trying to tell me.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud.jpg Size: 105 KB
  • #10,095
  • Jul 29, 2010 7:23am Jul 29, 2010 7:23am
Quoting clockwork71
Are you cleaning up S?
Oh yeah, my Kuggerands, American Eagles, & Canadian Maple Leafs were all sold for a big stack of Euros!! LOL!
  • #10,096
  • Jul 29, 2010 7:49am Jul 29, 2010 7:49am
Quoting InfinitySL
Oh yeah, my Kuggerands, American Eagles, & Canadian Maple Leafs were all sold for a big stack of Euros!! LOL!
  • #10,097
  • Jul 29, 2010 7:55am Jul 29, 2010 7:55am
For full disclosure:

I have decided to segregate my forex from my stock account. The biggest issue with Interactive Brokers for Forex has always been granularity. (In other words, not being able to get the exact amount of leverage I want all the time...since you must trade in $25,000 lots or above.)

Also, some of you have noticed that I have ads for Dukascopy/AVA FX on my blog, and soon to be at the front page of my site as well. Being a IB for these firms kinda dictates that it makes sense for me to use them.

They both have MT4 charts, so you will start to see those being posted again as live trades form time to time.....

I am still using Interactive Brokers for stocks, and highly recommend them. This was in no way a reflection on the company. As for stocks, I am starting to trade ultra long-term as well. I think the monthly charts are going to be my friend with some of them.

A couple of things I have been doing:

Sharebuilder. ING has a great deal where you can opt in to automatically buy shares every month, and even has partial shares. I have been buying Citi this way for a little while now. These shares will be mine until at least $20.

I am also starting to think the same way about Sprint. But I have not opted in yet on them.
  • #10,098
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:28am Jul 29, 2010 8:28am
Quoting 4xAddict
Having returned from Shanghai over the weekend I felt I should share again my experience of the Chinese market outlook and incredibly scary property market situation there.
As an addition/amplification of 4xAddict's post from a few days ago, i thought I would link to another blog I was reading that certainly agrees with many of the points he made.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/...g-markets.html

Since we all love charts/visuals, here are a few of the better ones:

Housing Values for major cities Price Index (think of this as similar to our Case-Shiller Index)
http://www.voxeu.org/sites/default/f...yourkoFig1.gif

And here's one that just looks at Land Prices in Major Chinese Cities:
http://www.voxeu.org/sites/default/f...yourkoFig5.gif

Anyway, as with our housing bubble here in the states, although people were warning about it in 2005 & 2006, the market just kept rolling along until all hell broke loose in late 2007 and into 2008, so there is still time for this to play out but i would certainly keep this on your radar screens.

The full article is well worth the read.
  • #10,099
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:35am Jul 29, 2010 8:35am
Quoting InfinitySL
As an addition/amplification of 4xAddict's post from a few days ago, i thought I would link to another blog I was reading that certainly agrees with many of the points he made.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/...g-markets.html

Since we all love charts/visuals, here are a few of the better ones:

Housing Values for major cities Price Index (think of this as similar to our Case-Shiller Index)
http://www.voxeu.org/sites/default/f...yourkoFig1.gif

And here's one that just...
My goodness. Those charts, they look like Samer's equity curve. lol
  • #10,100
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:48am Jul 29, 2010 8:48am
I like trendlines on the weekly. I can only really see one valid downwards trendline on this chart at the moment and there are only two horizontal resistance levels between here and 1.45.

What makes everyone so bearish the euro/usd anyway? Is the usd really in that much better shape? I would agree that the euro looks in a bad way at the moment but I don't think we should let that blind us to the facts regarding the usd.

It's worth mentioning this is pure speculation and not a forecast. It's a best guess by looking at this chart. I am trying to only take trades now on weekly charts where weekly trendlines, horizontal s/r and the right candlestick reversal patterns coincide. If all that sets up at 1.45 then I'll sell.

I realise this will give me less trades but you only need to get a few big ones right a year and you're ok.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 33 KB
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
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