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Amyc Trade Journal

  • #701
  • Jul 27, 2010 3:17pm Jul 27, 2010 3:17pm
Quoting stiven
Hi amyc, think your analysis is great so thanks for keeping it going! Took a short close to yours earlier today (9015) based on the view that I think equity markets are overbought and what looked like pretty strong resistance around 9020-9025 but has now shot through. You still short? What's your modelling showing now? I'm happy to hold for a day or 2, only a small position : )
Hi Stiven I was stopped out of that short for -20 pips. I have reentered this morning though as I agree with you about equities, my charts show the S&P should be back into 1096 for Wednesday.
For AU I am still looking for the 8930 area, I have some shorts at 9015 and I have more orders at 9030, I think price will do a swing back to 9030 on the Japan open but I took the ones now just in case it doesn't as I don't wan't to be left behind after already getting stopped once.
  • #702
  • Jul 27, 2010 3:25pm Jul 27, 2010 3:25pm
Quoting amyc
GU has also had a bearish 4hr close which should see it move back to 1.5374. But my ideal short zone for this pair is 1.5535-41 area so i will wait and see if I can get that.

GU missed my order by 2 pips so I pulled it, lucky as this morning it is much higher and looks like it will continue up for Wednesday.
  • #703
  • Jul 27, 2010 3:33pm Jul 27, 2010 3:33pm
Quoting amyc
Hi Stiven I was stopped out of that short for -20 pips. I have reentered this morning though as I agree with you about equities, my charts show the S&P should be back into 1096 for Wednesday.
For AU I am still looking for the 8930 area, I have some shorts at 9015 and I have more orders at 9030, I think price will do a swing back to 9030 on the Japan open but I took the ones now just in case it doesn't as I don't wan't to be left behind after already getting stopped once.

Thanks for that Amy! I had a pretty wide stop so am still in... was looking to add near 9100 but didn't reach there. My only concern is the news later today with inflation data coming out. There's a big focus on it here in the Oz media and they're saying a high reading will mean interest rate rise next week and a bad outcome for AUD shorts...
  • #704
  • Jul 27, 2010 3:35pm Jul 27, 2010 3:35pm
I have started to build a short position in the S&P, I still think it needs to hit 970 before we see a bottom to this bearishness. I have taken shorts off 1117 last night, Tuesdays close is bearish and should see a move back to the midpoints on the RH chart next (1096 for Wednesday). If the week closes below 1117 then there will be a move back to the midpoints next week of the lower chart. The chart on the top shows 28 point range bars, all the down moves since 1200 have started with 28 point tops at the green highs. Stops currently 1130 but will reveiw this daily.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #705
  • Jul 27, 2010 6:33pm Jul 27, 2010 6:33pm
Part profit taken on au at 8941. holding remainder for now.

Shorts also taken on eu at 1.2991 (dp GMT time) target 1.2921.
  • #706
  • Jul 27, 2010 6:37pm Jul 27, 2010 6:37pm
Damn it!! I cut my position earlier at 9010 as I worried about the inflation news but inflation results came in lower than expected and AUD has dropped 60 pips in a few minutes... not happy with myself...


Quoting stiven
Thanks for that Amy! I had a pretty wide stop so am still in... was looking to add near 9100 but didn't reach there. My only concern is the news later today with inflation data coming out. There's a big focus on it here in the Oz media and they're saying a high reading will mean interest rate rise next week and a bad outcome for AUD shorts...
  • #707
  • Jul 27, 2010 6:41pm Jul 27, 2010 6:41pm
Decided to take remainder of profits at 8950, price has made the move I was looking for back to the midpoints.

Still holding eu shorts looking for the same move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 9 KB
  • #708
  • Jul 27, 2010 6:46pm Jul 27, 2010 6:46pm
Quoting stiven
Damn it!! I cut my position earlier at 9010 as I worried about the inflation news but inflation results came in lower than expected and AUD has dropped 60 pips in a few minutes... not happy with myself...
Don't worry there will be another opportunity along tomorrow to trade.
One thing I do which is probably not popular with many is to ingore the news, I find that if I have read the chart correctly only around once a year will I be stopped out of a trade by news, majority of the time your chart will tell you which way the news reaction will go.
  • #709
  • Jul 27, 2010 10:45pm Jul 27, 2010 10:45pm
Yep, back to the drawing board! Thanks Amy

Quoting amyc
Don't worry there will be another opportunity along tomorrow to trade.
One thing I do which is probably not popular with many is to ingore the news, I find that if I have read the chart correctly only around once a year will I be stopped out of a trade by news, majority of the time your chart will tell you which way the news reaction will go.
  • #710
  • Jul 27, 2010 10:58pm Jul 27, 2010 10:58pm
I just started following your method and it looks really good.

Do you follow EUR/AUD at all? Looks like a nice upside potential if it opens above the weekly pivot next week.

What do you do after the daily/weekly targets have been hit. I've started to fade them but not sure if this is a good long term strategy or not... not enough experience.

Thanks for starting your journal. You're one of few who know how to trade.
  • #711
  • Edited 11:32pm Jul 27, 2010 11:16pm | Edited 11:32pm
Quoting Slack
I just started following your method and it looks really good.

Do you follow EUR/AUD at all? Looks like a nice upside potential if it opens above the weekly pivot next week.

What do you do after the daily/weekly targets have been hit. I've started to fade them but not sure if this is a good long term strategy or not... not enough experience.

Thanks for starting your journal. You're one of few who know how to trade.
I don't normally fade the weekly targets, the reason I did this week with au was because it had done 5 80 pip bars up without a reversal, that is not normal, but I would not have done this if it had of closed above the green highs on Monday (9010, I posted this chart on Monday). I usually prefer to trade with the trend and I think that is still up until next week for the markets I follow.

I don't trade the euraud.

Once the weekly targets have been hit sometimes I don't trade again for the week, or I wait till Thursday and Friday which I find easier to trade than earlier in the week, these days are good for trading to daily high and lows (calculated same way as weekly targets). I also have monthly targets which gives me some longer term trades for more pips. On a good week I will do less than 5 trades, if I do more then I've probably made a mess of things.

One other thing I try to do late in the week is position myself for the move the following week, for example au and eu should move into next weeks target highs, so if Thursday and Friday look bullish (open above dp) then I will look for longs that I can hold into next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #712
  • Jul 27, 2010 11:27pm Jul 27, 2010 11:27pm
Stopped on eu for -20, I wanted to see price move back from the highs to the midpoint at 1.2921 same as au did. I think I am probably done trading for the week now unless something good comes along Thursday morning.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #713
  • Jul 28, 2010 2:33pm Jul 28, 2010 2:33pm
There is a long opportunity coming up on au at the green lows, need to wait for the next 4hr close to get the exact level. If this long works out then it should take price up into 91xx next week.
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  • #714
  • Jul 28, 2010 3:16pm Jul 28, 2010 3:16pm
EU should make its way back to the midpoint, I will try a long if it gets to here and hold to next weeks highs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #715
  • Jul 28, 2010 6:59pm Jul 28, 2010 6:59pm
There is a possibility that au has found a bottom with the 80 pip low. I would like to see it do 8880 but if there is a 4hr close above 8966 then that probably won't happen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 13 KB
  • #716
  • Jul 28, 2010 10:30pm Jul 28, 2010 10:30pm
S&P is back into the midpoint and Thursday and Friday will probably be up days. I am still holding the shorts and will continue to do so unless price starts breaking out of the green highs. So far it is only a 1/3 position which I will add to next week depending on where Friday closes at.
I think that next week we might see a top in au, eu and indicies.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #717
  • Jul 29, 2010 5:38pm Jul 29, 2010 5:38pm
AU and EU still have a higher move to make yet but with dx sitting where it is I won't be rushing to take longs for Friday. I have no currency positions at the moment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #718
  • Jul 29, 2010 5:44pm Jul 29, 2010 5:44pm
S&P should move lower on Friday but unless it is a big move that puts it under the August midpoint on Monday then next week it will probably move higher again into 1130 before it makes a move lower. Still holding the shorts and added some at 1097 today but am anticipating that I will be taking the profits around 1070-75 next week and then reentering from higher.
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  • #719
  • Jul 30, 2010 3:15am Jul 30, 2010 3:15am
Couple more questions for you if I could....

Is it a good idea to stay away from trading this method on Fridays?

Do you have any rules/guidance on stop and reverse positions? We had a open above the PP today. The EU make a few attempts at the Daily H, but turned down to tag the L.

Thanks.
  • #720
  • Jul 30, 2010 6:48pm Jul 30, 2010 6:48pm
Quoting Slack
Couple more questions for you if I could....

Is it a good idea to stay away from trading this method on Fridays?

Do you have any rules/guidance on stop and reverse positions? We had a open above the PP today. The EU make a few attempts at the Daily H, but turned down to tag the L.

Thanks.
The method works fine on all days but you need to remember its all based on probabilities, its not guaranteed that just bc the day opens above the pp it will go to the highs.
For eu on friday the probability was small due to the position of dx in the charts I posted. Also in the chart below (eu 4hr) the close below the green highs on Thursday at 1.3068 was a bearish setup which made a move back to the midpoints highly likely.
For next week eu is a buy, as long as there si not a large gap on open I will be going long pretty much straight away targeting 1.3235.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 11 KB
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