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Silent Service Method

  • #9,941
  • Jul 23, 2010 8:59am Jul 23, 2010 8:59am
So I took off that GBP/CHF trade prior to the "stress test" -- I don't need the headline risk / headache risk.

Have a great weekend everyone!
  • #9,942
  • Jul 23, 2010 9:10am Jul 23, 2010 9:10am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Pick a number between 3 and 400, put that MA on a chart and I bet you will find that it acts as s/r, whatever the number.
Yes that is true.

Quoting Arfer Daily
The problem with MA's for s/r is that they aren't as reliable as they first appear.
I believe that this is the case with all indicators. You have to learn how to use them properly.

Quoting Arfer Daily
you can't really use the information.
I disagree with this statement. I have found the MA's to be very useful over the years.

Quoting Arfer Daily
Not knocking what you're doing, just expressing my opinion, if it works for you then why not use it?
I think the MA's, the way I use them are going to be a perfect addition to the tools I have learned here.

When I look at the information that the MA on this chart is giving me, I see nothing but useful information.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ma.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #9,943
  • Jul 23, 2010 9:11am Jul 23, 2010 9:11am
This is basically how I use them as well.

Quoting stewrigh
Depends how you use them.

I have 100,200 and 365 on all my charts but I use the mainly for trend following.

What I look for is PA around any of my MA's - For example in the USDCHF down trend of the last few weeks I look for price to pull back and touch the MA. If it fails at 100 I add to the position if not I don't - then I watch the 200 then the 365.

If the 100 gets me in I use the 200 as a stop.

Its not quite that cut and dried - much more discretion but thats the gist.
  • #9,944
  • Jul 23, 2010 11:10am Jul 23, 2010 11:10am
Quoting jharvey407
Yes that is true.



I believe that this is the case with all indicators. You have to learn how to use them properly.



I disagree with this statement. I have found the MA's to be very useful over the years.



I think the MA's, the way I use them are going to be a perfect addition to the tools I have learned here.

When I look at the information that the MA on this chart is giving me, I see nothing but useful information.
Fair enough with all of that, I would never try to tell you how to trade, I know you know what you are doing.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,945
  • Jul 23, 2010 11:53am Jul 23, 2010 11:53am
Quoting jharvey407
Yes that is true.



I believe that this is the case with all indicators. You have to learn how to use them properly.



I disagree with this statement. I have found the MA's to be very useful over the years.



I think the MA's, the way I use them are going to be a perfect addition to the tools I have learned here.

When I look at the information that the MA on this chart is giving me, I see nothing but useful information.

I think what he is getting at is this: Do you need the EMA to tell you it's in a downtrend?
  • #9,946
  • Jul 23, 2010 12:59pm Jul 23, 2010 12:59pm
Just heard a brilliant observation on CNBC. (I am cleaning the office.)

"The individual investor has been M.I.A., I think that will continue until we see jobs being created."

Give that froggy-voice little troll a Nobel Prize!

lol
  • #9,947
  • Jul 23, 2010 1:00pm Jul 23, 2010 1:00pm
I'm short eurgbp again from the weekly chart.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,948
  • Jul 23, 2010 1:02pm Jul 23, 2010 1:02pm
The EUR/USD is forming a doji for the week....as I write this, we are up 26 pips.

With everything that has been happening, and this little changed - shows me we are still dikering around with summer blahs.

Of course, let's see what happens during the European and Asian session Sunday night/Monday night.
  • #9,949
  • Jul 23, 2010 2:05pm Jul 23, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting clockwork71
I think what he is getting at is this: Do you need the EMA to tell you it's in a downtrend?
No.

But I don't use the MA's to determine trend. I use them as SR.
  • #9,950
  • Jul 23, 2010 2:07pm Jul 23, 2010 2:07pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
I'm short eurgbp again from the weekly chart.
Have you entered or are you waiting for a break of the low?

I am waiting for a break of the low.
  • #9,951
  • Jul 23, 2010 2:49pm Jul 23, 2010 2:49pm
I posted a hyper-inflation movie on the blog. Kinda interesting.
  • #9,952
  • Jul 23, 2010 2:50pm Jul 23, 2010 2:50pm
Quoting jharvey407
No.

But I don't use the MA's to determine trend. I use them as SR.
I understand that as well. I used to use them, found them to be to arbitrary. But like the man said - if it works.....might as well.
  • #9,953
  • Jul 23, 2010 3:09pm Jul 23, 2010 3:09pm
Quoting clockwork71
The EUR/USD is forming a doji for the week....as I write this, we are up 26 pips.

With everything that has been happening, and this little changed - shows me we are still dikering around with summer blahs.

Of course, let's see what happens during the European and Asian session Sunday night/Monday night.
Hi
Just a question if u don't mind about e/u
What price if u seen u might change u r mind and start to think buy e/u?
Happy weekend
  • #9,954
  • Jul 23, 2010 3:11pm Jul 23, 2010 3:11pm
Quoting clockwork71
Just heard a brilliant observation on CNBC. (I am cleaning the office.)

"The individual investor has been M.I.A., I think that will continue until we see jobs being created."

Give that froggy-voice little troll a Nobel Prize!

lol
  • #9,955
  • Jul 23, 2010 3:23pm Jul 23, 2010 3:23pm
Quoting egkid
Hi
Just a question if u don't mind about e/u
What price if u seen u might change u r mind and start to think buy e/u?
Happy weekend
If I saw a pin or some other decent PA on Thursday on daily or 4hour i would have bought.

I have seen nothing to say that the bulls are finished with the euro yet. 1.25 has to fall for that first
  • #9,956
  • Jul 23, 2010 4:01pm Jul 23, 2010 4:01pm
Quoting egkid
Hi
Just a question if u don't mind about e/u
What price if u seen u might change u r mind and start to think buy e/u?
Happy weekend
I want to see it break through 1.30 on a daily close, and even better - if it goes above, comes back down and holds above 1.30 as support.
  • #9,957
  • Jul 23, 2010 5:38pm Jul 23, 2010 5:38pm
Quoting clockwork71
I understand that as well. I used to use them, found them to be to arbitrary. But like the man said - if it works.....might as well.
Yeah, after years of using them for the standard trend indicator, cross-over signals etc. I have found a way to use them for entries.

The signals are not generated by the MA's alone, but by a whole host of tools. They are really only a small part of the equation.

What I am really doing is combining what I have learned from this thread with the techniques I have learned in the past with the simple goal of eliminating bad trades.

I'll post charts to illustrate how I use them. This weekend I'll put together my analysis of the NZDUSD that prompted me to switch from short to long.
  • #9,958
  • Jul 23, 2010 7:51pm Jul 23, 2010 7:51pm
I am already hearing stories of firms running their own stress tests on the Europeans data, and failing them. Next week could be rather interesting.

EUR closed at 1.2903, which essentially means today was for naught.
  • #9,959
  • Jul 23, 2010 9:30pm Jul 23, 2010 9:30pm
Quoting jharvey407
Have you entered or are you waiting for a break of the low?

I am waiting for a break of the low.
No, I'm in already. I can see why you might want to wait for the break of the low but I think it will go down next week so why not get in now and have the extra pips? Of course if it just goes up next week then I will look silly but I've long since worried about that.

My strategy now is to take lots of small losses in the region of 100 to 500 pips and when I catch a big weekly trend with judicious add ons I'll be banking 1000 to 5000 pip trades.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,960
  • Jul 23, 2010 10:15pm Jul 23, 2010 10:15pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
No, I'm in already. I can see why you might want to wait for the break of the low but I think it will go down next week so why not get in now and have the extra pips? Of course if it just goes up next week then I will look silly but I've long since worried about that.
Just like you, me and the kiwi...lol.

Quoting Arfer Daily
My strategy now is to take lots of small losses in the region of 100 to 500 pips and when I catch a big weekly trend with judicious add ons I'll be banking 1000 to 5000 pip trades.
This is how I trade. And I'm hoping to change that. I take a lot of 1% losers before I get a 25% winner....and overall, I lose doing it.

Unless something is trending hard, with only minor retracements, the psychology gets difficult after you've been in a trade for months on end, like what happens if it retraces to the 50 fib? or the 79? Will you have positions in that area? Will you let them close at BE or a loss? How will that affect your net profit on the trade? Will you also scale out of positions the way you scaled in?

Oh and don't forget, all your trader buddies are making money hand over fist shorting the same pair you're long.

These are all questions I haven't answered for myself yet, and need to, because you start to think twice when you see a trade that's +1000 pips in profit get stopped out for BE 4 days later.

Doesn't mean you can't do it, it just means that you need to have detailed plans for trade management.

And stick to them.
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