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Silent Service Method

  • #9,741
  • Jul 14, 2010 10:35pm Jul 14, 2010 10:35pm
Quoting samer960
three outside up pattern completed on the daily GU, price at trend line will it break it?
It looks like it's running out of steam....but then again, that's only guessing....we must wait to see if that line gets broken.
  • #9,742
  • Jul 14, 2010 10:36pm Jul 14, 2010 10:36pm
Quoting InfinitySL
I'll take a shot (and I'll only use AUD/USD as my chart of choice)...


Weekly:
Attachment

Daily:
Attachment

So... are we at a no-brainer spot to go long?...
So far, so good. I think we can both agree that we are at a place it should move one way or the other.

But there is another chart out there......let's see if you can find it, and see what it's hinting to you????
  • #9,743
  • Jul 15, 2010 12:12am Jul 15, 2010 12:12am
Quoting clockwork71
So far, so good. I think we can both agree that we are at a place it should move one way or the other.

But there is another chart out there......let's see if you can find it, and see what it's hinting to you????
I'm just guessing here, but are you talking about gold?

If so, here's a chart I put up earlier in a different thread.

http://i29.tinypic.com/8zo8yd.png
  • #9,744
  • Jul 15, 2010 12:47am Jul 15, 2010 12:47am
Monday's pin is going well.
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  • #9,745
  • Jul 15, 2010 12:56am Jul 15, 2010 12:56am
My take.
A daily close above 0.89 will be significant for me.
Weekly trend is up. A close above that level will continue that bullish trend.

With yesterdays Doji - it now looks like its going to range for a while
  • #9,746
  • Jul 15, 2010 5:35am Jul 15, 2010 5:35am
Quoting Low
I'm just guessing here, but are you talking about gold?

If so, here's a chart I put up earlier in a different thread.

http://i29.tinypic.com/8zo8yd.png
Very close.....in fact it's the same chart I was talking about.....

I was looking at this trend line on the Gold chart.......if it breaks below, it could be bad for the Aussie in general.....Of course, if it holds.....AUD should rise.
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  • #9,747
  • Jul 15, 2010 5:59am Jul 15, 2010 5:59am
Er, that eurusd noise has got louder! I'm out needless to say. I'm wondering if everything bad about the euro has already come out and everyone is starting to realise that usd isn't in such good shape either causing the massive move in eurusd to look overplayed hence it's coming back up towards "fairer" value. I'm going to continue watching this but I'm not in a hurry to short again until I see a serious signal like a daily trendline break or weekly pin from s/r.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,748
  • Jul 15, 2010 6:18am Jul 15, 2010 6:18am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Er, that eurusd noise has got louder! I'm out needless to say. I'm wondering if everything bad about the euro has already come out and everyone is starting to realise that usd isn't in such good shape either causing the massive move in eurusd to look overplayed hence it's coming back up towards "fairer" value. I'm going to continue watching this but I'm not in a hurry to short again until I see a serious signal like a daily trendline break or weekly pin from s/r.
Agreed. Having said that....here is my new analysis of the EUR/USD pair:
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  • #9,749
  • Jul 15, 2010 6:45am Jul 15, 2010 6:45am
Quoting clockwork71
Agreed. Having said that....here is my new analysis of the EUR/USD pair:
Hi All,

My take on the Euro is that the 1.28-1.30 area will be of significance as I said a few weeks back.

Given the time of year and resulting volatility amplifying moves we may even see E/U as high as 1.32-1.35 area however, just when everyone starts to second guess themselves because the Market moved against them more than expected is in my experience a telling signal that the big guys are preparing to move it in the right direction again after clearing the easy money off the table.

When people like Jim Rogers et al start saying the Euro is looking a buy it's normally a sign they are looking for a better sell entry.

IMO the more important issue will be whether the US and possibly China embark on further stimulus in the 2nd half. This could take the indexes much higher and risk currencies with it.

I am going to place some E/U sell orders around 1.25 to avoid missing any major moves south but will be slowly building partial sells up into the 1.30-1.32 area from here when the opportunity arises (sl at 1.35). A break above 1.35 will see me cancel the resting orders at 1.25 and move them to 1.30.

The partial sells that I build will be small though and I will be waiting for a genuine Clockwork sell signal on the weekly before shorting with decent money

Trying to pick a top here will get quite expensive I think.

Anyone made any good trades lately, have been on holidays.

Hope you are all going well.

4x.
  • #9,750
  • Jul 15, 2010 6:56am Jul 15, 2010 6:56am
Quoting clockwork71
Quick, someone give me a thesis why the AUD might be going down in the near future?

I am interested in what some of you guys have put together in knowledge, and you can use anything I have or have not taught. Think outside the box. (I hate that phrase.)

Notice I said the AUD....not just the AUD/USD.

Think of me as your client, wanting like hell to buy AUD.....but you have to figure out any reasons why I wouldn't want to. This is a signal contest, just a well-rounded thought process.....
Inflation in Asia and particularly in China will be a major factor.

If the Chinese start lifting rates and their growth continues to slow AUD will get a firm whacking.

Inflation in Asia and further US or Chinese or both stimulus are the game changers for me.

Cheers.
  • #9,751
  • Jul 15, 2010 6:57am Jul 15, 2010 6:57am
Quoting 4xAddict
Trying to pick a top here will get quite expensive I think.
Why try to pick a top?
Just wait for the first big push down.
Then get in short on the almost inevitable retrace back up.

Eurusd is going to 1.31 now without much trouble until it hits the Resistance from May10. Then the bears will get interested
  • #9,752
  • Jul 15, 2010 7:00am Jul 15, 2010 7:00am
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  • #9,753
  • Jul 15, 2010 7:15am Jul 15, 2010 7:15am
Hi CW&Infinity,

what do you guys think about Intel's market position having shifted more recently making it less a gauge of US economic prosperity and more
a hybrid indicator of combined international governmental stimulus spending and proxy access to the apple story without paying the 250/share price tag?

Also the 4th gen iPhone doesn't have an issue with the intel components so their impact will be lessened.

I am not sure it is the indicator of US specific performance it once
was.

If the market widely accepts lowered profit guidances being beaten as good news then I will be surprised.

If the Market continues to rise it will have to be driven by more artificial stimulus IMO, the US employment picture just does not indicate a real growth story to me.

Interested in your thoughts on this issue.

Cheers.
  • #9,754
  • Jul 15, 2010 7:21am Jul 15, 2010 7:21am
Quoting jicjoc
Why try to pick a top?
Just wait for the first big push down.
Then get in short on the almost inevitable retrace back up.

Eurusd is going to 1.31 now without much trouble until it hits the Resistance from May10. Then the bears will get interested
I agree mate, on the timeframes I am watching though, this is the retrace
  • #9,755
  • Jul 15, 2010 7:51am Jul 15, 2010 7:51am
Quoting 4xAddict
I agree mate, on the timeframes I am watching though, this is the retrace
I am watching them too
  • #9,756
  • Jul 15, 2010 7:52am Jul 15, 2010 7:52am
Oh boy am I irritated!

I went long EURUSD at 1.2676 looking for 1.2900.
But.. I didn't like the way the price behaved at 1.2700.
So.. I closed my long at -15 pips.
Then.. I went short off of the rejection at 1.2700.
Then.. The price went up to 1.2900 stopping me out of my short!

Grrrr...

Well, it's all a learning experience.
  • #9,757
  • Jul 15, 2010 9:16am Jul 15, 2010 9:16am
Quoting jharvey407
Oh boy am I irritated!

I went long EURUSD at 1.2676 looking for 1.2900.
But.. I didn't like the way the price behaved at 1.2700.
So.. I closed my long at -15 pips.
Then.. I went short off of the rejection at 1.2700.
Then.. The price went up to 1.2900 stopping me out of my short!

Grrrr...

Well, it's all a learning experience.
maybe you hopped in too early, but if you placed a trade let it run.. i am struggling with this, too. i will start a trading diary from next week on to avoid this.
if you feel bad after opening a trade:
1. you shouldnt have taken it at all,
2. or your position size is too big.

you see the loss today was caused by psychology. thats the most difficult thing in trading.

best regards
  • #9,758
  • Jul 15, 2010 9:23am Jul 15, 2010 9:23am
Quoting jharvey407

Well, it's all a learning experience.
This is the part where you know what you need to about trading, and instead get taught lessons about yourself.

I'm still struggling with this part.
  • #9,759
  • Jul 15, 2010 9:45am Jul 15, 2010 9:45am
Quoting Low
This is the part where you know what you need to about trading, and instead get taught lessons about yourself.

I'm still struggling with this part.
I jumped in on a dragon short today twice. I didn't have a reason-just saw price falling. First time I made quick pips. Second time I was too late in the game and got my fingers burn a little. I know better and am ashamed of myself. lol

Just use restraint I was unable to use. lol
  • #9,760
  • Jul 15, 2010 9:59am Jul 15, 2010 9:59am
Quoting 4xAddict
What do you guys think about Intel's market position having shifted more recently making it less a gauge of US economic prosperity and more a hybrid indicator of combined international governmental stimulus spending and proxy access to the apple story without paying the 250/share price tag?
At the risk of getting a bit off-topic...

I didn't think Intel made many parts for any of the iphone/ipad but they do provide the processors for the laptops/desktop Macs. The Mac side of Apple is not really what you're paying the $250/share for - that's more for the mobile side of that biz. Apple is using its own proprietary A4 chip for the iphone. Not sure if intel makes many of the parts (but I could be wrong).

As crazy at it is though, INTC still made $2.8bn profit off of $10.7bn in revenue - their best quarter ever (~$1bn/month in profit...)... But as I said, it's not about the backward-looking "did they beat the street", they raised their guidance for the coming quarter/year. They are expecting better business...Also their margins were better and they saw margins improving.

Same with CSX (railroads). Clearly railroad shipping (and expectations of future shipments) has to be seen as a positive sign for future economic activity. JPMorgan produced strong results this morning. Financials should do well borrowing money at 0% and buying government bonds at 3% or mortgages/corporate bonds at 4-4.5%

Am I raging bull on the economy? Not particularly, but I think it's better than all the doom & gloom out there. I liken the situation to driving down the highway at 65mph, there's a 15-car pile-up about a mile ahead and now you're stopped dead in traffic (i.e. the great recession). The accident has started to clear up and you getting back up to speed. Will it be a straight shot back to 65mph? If we slow down from 3.5% GDP growth to 2.5%, that's not the end of the world but a bump in the road. We'll get there...At least that's my belief...

If anything, the bearish view on the stock market is better expressed in chart form. Surprised I haven't seen this one posted yet... Interesting channel on stocks...

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