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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #237,701
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:16am Jul 13, 2010 9:16am
Quoting cloggie
It seems no matter how hard some of us try using just about every argument in the book to dissuade traders from anticipating a reversal, there will always be lots who think that as price has moved up it must be time for it to reverse and use any and all obstacle in the way of a continuation as validation of that thought process, totally ignoring the continued bullish momentum of the day.
you know me so well , looks like i will be out of the market for the next two days waitng for this to go down :-)
  • #237,702
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:16am Jul 13, 2010 9:16am
How do you all feel about the upcoming major announcements? I was going to go long to 1.5550 (+360 pips at current rate) with a stop loss set at 1.5060 (-120 pips) if the three hour candlestick closes above the ascending support line, expecting the trade to be open for about two weeks. But there are some pretty significant releases this week that shake the market quite a bit.
  • #237,703
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:19am Jul 13, 2010 9:19am
Quoting damonl
Hey cloggie.. if your tracking s&r levels on your 1H azzchart, do you then move down to a lower TF to see whether price will reverse or continue? If so, which TF?

My strategy changes throughout the year depending on the seasons really. In the summer I look at rejection of asslevels on H4 and for triggers based on H1 and M30 at the London open to enter trades on the M5/15. I will hold on to a trade from the open until we see a consolidation on the M30 (H1 in the fall) I then move my stop to below the area of consolidation having taken some profit of the table (about 2/3 in the summer and 1/3-1/2 in the fall and spring). If the consolidation of the open happens in between levels I would add to the trade anticipating the next level once the continuation is confirmed, if we have a break to the downside (in today's example) without having reached another significant level on H4 I will not CT that break but wait to see the PA around the next level, especially in the summer.

The big difference between my summer trading and normal trading is my TP's are about half in the summer. I judge my trading success purely by income and not by pips, so I will at good breaks of the London increase the lotsize for my summer trading to make up for the lack in volatility.
  • #237,704
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:23am Jul 13, 2010 9:23am
Another one for my Forex - Read Daily file

Quoting cloggie
My strategy changes throughout the year depending on the seasons really. In the summer I look at rejection of asslevels on H4 and for triggers based on H1 and M30 at the London open to enter trades on the M5/15. I will hold on to a trade from the open until we see a consolidation on the M30 (H1 in the fall) I then move my stop to below the area of consolidation having taken some profit of the table (about 2/3 in the summer and 1/3-1/2 in the fall and spring). If the consolidation of the open happens in between levels I would add to the trade anticipating...
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #237,705
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:23am Jul 13, 2010 9:23am
Quoting honeybhi
No offense mate.We are here to share our views.I stopped out my trade for -30 pips .just short cause I saw daily r2 and a res at that area.How ever i played only a small profit from my long trade.so i have nothing to loose today overall closed positive today.Will look for reversal signs in future.

I am not telling you how to suck eggs here, but a reversal needs a lot more to materialise then a continuation, price is stubborn because the market participants are, everybody involved would prefer a continuation during the London session, especially in the summer months.

Our job on a day to day level is to ride the coattails of the big boys and trying to identify where they want to take us. Countertrending a bullish day especially in the summer is risky and has a very low probability of success.
  • #237,706
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:25am Jul 13, 2010 9:25am
Thank heavens I have finally stopped doing that!!!


Quoting cloggie
It seems no matter how hard some of us try using just about every argument in the book to dissuade traders from anticipating a reversal, there will always be lots who think that as price has moved up it must be time for it to reverse and use any and all obstacle in the way of a continuation as validation of that thought process, totally ignoring the continued bullish momentum of the day.
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #237,707
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:25am Jul 13, 2010 9:25am
Now on my view we could test 51
  • #237,708
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:27am Jul 13, 2010 9:27am
Quoting cloggie
My strategy changes throughout the year depending on the seasons really. In the summer I look at rejection of asslevels on H4 and for triggers based on H1 and M30 at the London open to enter trades on the M5/15. I will hold on to a trade from the open until we see a consolidation on the M30 (H1 in the fall) I then move my stop to below the area of consolidation having taken some profit of the table (about 2/3 in the summer and 1/3-1/2 in the fall and spring). If the consolidation of the open happens in between levels I would add to the trade anticipating...
Thanks!
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #237,709
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:32am Jul 13, 2010 9:32am
Quoting 4xStar
Thank heavens I have finally stopped doing that!!!

Lot's of traders that miss the LO, either because they have a day job or they are at a geographical disadvantage, will come in during the day and want to find an entry thinking to themselves that they will jump onto the next retrace, that sculpts their mindset to look for retrace points as entries for a CT, not seeing that price is actually telling them we have a long way to go. Looking at a chart without a preconceived notion or idea is the hardest thing to learn for any "newer" trader. Having loads of traders here shouting CT entries does not help either.
  • #237,710
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:38am Jul 13, 2010 9:38am
Quoting cloggie
I am not telling you how to suck eggs here, but a reversal needs a lot more to materialise then a continuation, price is stubborn because the market participants are, everybody involved would prefer a continuation during the London session, especially in the summer months.

Our job on a day to day level is to ride the coattails of the big boys and trying to identify where they want to take us. Countertrending a bullish day especially in the summer is risky and has a very low probability of success.
Lol I ride along the big boys only and pick up tops and bottoms specially.Will show u in the coming days.
  • #237,711
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:43am Jul 13, 2010 9:43am
Hi guys,

I've not posted here before, lurked around a bit but thought it's time to brave the waters & post I'm one of the crazies who's in a short at the moment, hopefully I've managed to attach a chart so you can see my reasoning for it whether you agree or not
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD short 13-07.jpg Size: 106 KB
  • #237,712
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:44am Jul 13, 2010 9:44am
Tsamina mina eh eh, waka waka eh eh, tsamina mina zangalewa, anawa aa, this time for beer
Thank You
  • #237,713
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:46am Jul 13, 2010 9:46am
Quoting honeybhi
Lol I ride along the big boys only and pick up tops and bottoms specially.Will show u in the coming days.
No disrespect here but in my short time in this business I have never seen a retail trader be consistently succesful in picking tops and bottoms, we just don't have the knowledge and view of the orderflow to do so.
  • #237,714
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:46am Jul 13, 2010 9:46am
Quoting wormboy
Tsamina mina eh eh, waka waka eh eh, tsamina mina zangalewa, anawa aa, this time for beer
Weekly pivot held .
  • #237,715
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:52am Jul 13, 2010 9:52am
Quoting cloggie
No disrespect here but in my short time in this business I have never seen a retail trader be consistently succesful in picking tops and bottoms, we just don't have the knowledge and view of the orderflow to do so.
You will soon change your view for me.C u 2moro.http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/big_grin.gif
  • #237,716
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:55am Jul 13, 2010 9:55am
Quoting honeybhi
You will soon change your view for me.C u 2moro.http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/big_grin.gif

Looking forward to it, never too old to learn new tricks. But just an occasional right call on a top or bottom does not make a strategy consistent, I would want to see a backtesting of that over 10 years with a succesrate greater then 60% and would then forward test it for 6 months for me to change my opinion about reversal pickers. Until then I just wait for rivers to flow before jumping in, increasing my lotsizes to make up for the few pips I miss by not getting enticed in by a top or bottom.
  • #237,717
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:58am Jul 13, 2010 9:58am
Quoting wormboy
both. tho my preference for rsi is htf.
I've cleared my current long positions for cable. Here's a reason why.
M5 divergence is building up, so I've decided to take profit instead of taking my chances. If it ends up testing higher first, no harm done.

Good luck
There it is. That's the ltf divergence coming into play & how it could be used to exit trades. Once the divergence triggers, there is a good chance that price will challenge the ltl & break it. That happens, cable could be back at 5100. Let's see how this goes
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu5.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu5a.gif Size: 23 KB
Thank You
  • #237,718
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:59am Jul 13, 2010 9:59am
Quoting honeybhi
Weekly pivot held .
weekly resistance you mean
Thank You
  • #237,719
  • Jul 13, 2010 10:02am Jul 13, 2010 10:02am
Quoting wormboy
weekly resistance you mean
Yup typo err.
  • #237,720
  • Jul 13, 2010 10:11am Jul 13, 2010 10:11am
Quoting honeybhi
Yup typo err.
aye. good level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu4.gif Size: 23 KB
Thank You
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