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Silent Service Method

  • #9,681
  • Jul 12, 2010 11:23am Jul 12, 2010 11:23am
Quoting clockwork71
Earnings season starts this week in the stock world. Be advised if things don't go as planned, it can move the currency markets. It basically moves the "risk trade" on or off.

The announcements come after trading ends for the day, and as such - we could see a really quiet day today.
Chris, what do you mean by "Earnings Season"?
  • #9,682
  • Edited 12:07pm Jul 12, 2010 11:31am | Edited 12:07pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Chris, what do you mean by "Earnings Season"?
He's referring to the time of year (season) when companies release their earnings for the prior quarter. That gets started today when Alcoa (Ticker: AA) releases their most recent quarterly performance. Then we get Intel tomorrow, JP Morgan and Google on Thursday, and then Citi, GE, Bank of America, and a few others on Friday.

People won't be watching for how the numbers are (they'll be good because they are being compared to not-so-good numbers from 2009), they will be looking for how these companies see earning going forward and their outlook for the economy in the coming quarters.

Should be interesting...

EDIT: Here is a "complete" list. (I think it's complete, but i might have missed a few). Hopefully this comes out readable...I've been trying to figure out how to get tables on ForexFactory. This is my work around...

PHP Code
Ticker Company Name             Period          Industry
CSX  - CSX Corp                  07/12    --    Transport-Rail
AA   - Alcoa Inc                 07/12    --    Metal-Aluminum
FAST - Fastenal Co               07/13    --    Distribution/Wholesale
YUM  - Yum! Brands Inc           07/13    --    Retail-Restaurants
INTC - Intel Corp                07/13    --    Electronic Compo-Semicon
MAR  - Marriott International    07/14    --    Hotels&Motels
JPM  - JPMorgan Chase & Co       07/15    --    Diversified Banking Inst
PBCT - People's United Financ     07/15    --    S&L/Thrifts-Eastern US
PLCM - Polycom Inc               07/15    --    Networking Products
GOOG - Google Inc                07/15    --    Web Portals/ISP
JBHT - JB Hunt Transport Serv    07/15    --    Transport-Truck
AMD  - Advanced Micro Device     07/15    --    Electronic Compo-Semicon
AMR  - AMR Corp                  07/15    --    Airlines
APP  - American Apparel Inc      07/15    --    Apparel Manufacturers
GCI  - Gannett Co Inc            07/16    --    Publishing-Newspapers
SCHW - Charles Schwab Corp/T     07/16    --    Finance-Invest Bnkr/Brkr
FHN  - First Horizon National    07/16    --    Commer Banks-Southern US
MAT  - Mattel Inc                07/16    --    Toys
C    - Citigroup Inc             07/16    --    Diversified Banking Inst
BAC  - Bank of America Corp      07/16    --    Diversified Banking Inst
WCBO - West Coast Bancorp        07/16    --    Commer Banks-Western US
GE   - General Electric Co       07/16    --    Diversified Manufact Op
  • #9,683
  • Jul 12, 2010 12:06pm Jul 12, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting InfinitySL
He's referring to the time of year (season) when companies release their earnings for the prior quarter. That gets started today when Alcoa (Ticker: AA) releases their most recent quarterly performance. Then we get Intel tomorrow, JP Morgan and Google on Thursday, and then Citi, GE, Bank of America, and a few others on Friday.

People won't be watching for how the numbers are (they'll be good because they are being compared to not-so-good numbers from 2009), they will be looking for how these companies see earning going forward and their outlook...
Ah, thank you Infinity.
  • #9,684
  • Jul 12, 2010 1:52pm Jul 12, 2010 1:52pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
This usdjpy looks interesting but the near s/r puts me off a bit. I'm going to wait for the end of the day and see how it closes. I might try a small position short.
I just thought I'd post my chart of the UJ, because I am long at this point off of the daily PIN at SR 87.00 with a target of 93.00. I am at BE right now, below SR at 88.00.
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  • #9,685
  • Jul 12, 2010 2:19pm Jul 12, 2010 2:19pm
Quoting jharvey407
I just thought I'd post my chart of the UJ, because I am long at this point off of the daily PIN at SR 87.00 with a target of 93.00. I am at BE right now, below SR at 88.00.
It's looking more like a doji today so it's a leave. Interesting to see what happens though.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,686
  • Jul 12, 2010 3:41pm Jul 12, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting jharvey407
I just thought I'd post my chart of the UJ, because I am long at this point off of the daily PIN at SR 87.00 with a target of 93.00. I am at BE right now, below SR at 88.00.

Good spot to be at b/e. It looks like it is running into potential resistance, and since you are picking a bottom here - there is no reason to let it come back and bite you.
  • #9,687
  • Jul 12, 2010 3:54pm Jul 12, 2010 3:54pm
Notice the fact that this move has been parabolic over the last few days. Often, when a market does this, it will fail at the first sign of serious resistance. Think of it like kicking down a door. If you run at it from a decent distance, it's easier than running at it from 200 yards away. By the time you get there after running that far, you don't have enough energy to kick it down. I believe this might be a decent example of that.....
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  • #9,688
  • Jul 12, 2010 4:05pm Jul 12, 2010 4:05pm
Awesome Chris. Is that a chart from NinjaTrader or from Interactive Brokers?
  • #9,689
  • Jul 12, 2010 4:13pm Jul 12, 2010 4:13pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Awesome Chris. Is that a chart from NinjaTrader or from Interactive Brokers?

It's actually a chart from barchart.com

I tend to use them for end of day things I glance over. It's a great site. Funny, I never really thought about it, but they DO look a lot like Ninja.....
  • #9,690
  • Jul 12, 2010 5:15pm Jul 12, 2010 5:15pm
Quoting clockwork71
Good spot to be at b/e. It looks like it is running into potential resistance, and since you are picking a bottom here - there is no reason to let it come back and bite you.
Yeah, although I have been making a lot of BE trades lately, so I am going to trail my stop. Tomorrow morning I may move it up to below todays low, depending on how the chart looks.
  • #9,691
  • Jul 12, 2010 10:18pm Jul 12, 2010 10:18pm
Quoting jharvey407
Yeah, although I have been making a lot of BE trades lately, so I am going to trail my stop. Tomorrow morning I may move it up to below todays low, depending on how the chart looks.
Like I say all the time - it all comes down to being comfortable, and making rational decisions. If you are comfortable, and have a valid reason to be in, which you do - it's a good trade.
  • #9,692
  • Jul 13, 2010 4:45am Jul 13, 2010 4:45am
Interesting move on eurusd. Negative news pushed the euro down and then apparently Greece flogged a load of t bills and the price shot up. To me it's just noise and it's still going to make it's slow but steady way downwards but I'm not sure how far.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #9,693
  • Jul 13, 2010 6:47am Jul 13, 2010 6:47am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Interesting move on eurusd. Negative news pushed the euro down and then apparently Greece flogged a load of t bills and the price shot up. To me it's just noise and it's still going to make it's slow but steady way downwards but I'm not sure how far.
Agreed. It is also worth noting that Alcoa beat estimates last night, and as such push markets up. Here's the kicker though: They beat estimates that were already lowered a little ways back. In other words, they slightly beat the downgrading estimates.

Uh.....hooray?

I agree - at this moment it's noise.
  • #9,694
  • Jul 13, 2010 7:48am Jul 13, 2010 7:48am
To be honest, I get offers from all kinds of brokers and newsletters via the website and this thread. I have never really had one that interested me until last night. The main reason is that they are actually offering something that the "customer" (i.e. you) can use.

I haven't made a decision yet, mainly because I would like your input as a whole. (Please, any and everyone feel free to chime in here.)

The deal is this: Open a trading account with this broker, and they are willing to pick up your first month's subscription on my private forum. They offer CFD's as well, (stocks, oil, some commods) since they are Irish based. Minimum deposit is $100, so it's not a real reach really - to make the connection to value.

So if you were to deposit 100 USD in this account, and blew it all - in essence you are only down 25 USD. (Assuming you take advantage of my group.)

I don't know, seems like a decent deal to me. Of course there is the "PR" aspect of this as well. I make no bones about this being a business. (And am not going to try and tell you I am a multi-millionaire that is doing this because I am a sweet guy.) But.....it is a business that I really enjoy. I make a lot of videos because I actually like doing it. I wouldn't want that to change at all.

Any input, good or bad....or just to tell me I am an idiot - is greatly appreciated!

Chris
  • #9,695
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:29am Jul 13, 2010 9:29am
GBP/JPY
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  • #9,696
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:53am Jul 13, 2010 9:53am
Quoting clockwork71

The deal is this: Open a trading account with this broker, and they are willing to pick up your first month's subscription on my private forum. They offer CFD's as well, (stocks, oil, some commods) since they are Irish based. Minimum deposit is $100, so it's not a real reach really - to make the connection to value.
You might want to expand on what this broker can do for American customers since CFDs are not an option for US-based clients... Do they offer quite a few currency pairs? How are their spreads? ECN vs. Market Maker? Also, how long do you have to keep the acct open?

Also, what is their smallest positions size? Because a $100 deposit vs. a 10,000 unit instrument is more leverage (100-1) than you could probably in good conscience recommend for the type of trading you're doing. After all, the trades we often talk about on this thread involve 100 or 200 pip stop losses and multi-day/week holding periods... It would be difficult (and indeed kind of stupid) to put on a trade like that with 100-1 leverage. Now, if it's $100 deposit vs. 1,000 unit minimum size, 10-1 leverage is a bit more manageable... That said, it might not be the best idea for a true beginner.

Also this assumes people making minimum deposit, they might opt for higher amounts...Anyway, just my 2c.
  • #9,697
  • Jul 13, 2010 10:34am Jul 13, 2010 10:34am
http://i25.tinypic.com/24vijgn.png

http://i32.tinypic.com/2k0rxh.png

http://i31.tinypic.com/2rd7yud.png
  • #9,698
  • Jul 13, 2010 10:44am Jul 13, 2010 10:44am
Quoting InfinitySL
You might want to expand on what this broker can do for American customers since CFDs are not an option for US-based clients......
Sorry - should have mentioned that. No US customers are accepted because of the CFD status on some of the trades. (Most CFDs will not take Americans.) They are regulated by the Irish authorities, which I would assume is a good thing? I don't know Ireland to be overtly criminal, but could be - seeing how Boston is! lol


The position size can be managed on the user end, therefore not getting into trouble. You don't have to put on a 10k position for example.

MT4 is the platform, so while they work with banks.....they will be like most brokers in the sense that only larger orders actually need to be offset into the actual "Interbank Market", which is really only a handful of large banks.

The spreads on commodities are decent. As good as you are going to get without actually forking over the cash to trade futures on the CME directly for example.

Nat Gas, Oil, Sugar, and Cotton are good. Grains aren't too bad on the spread either.

Available leverage is 200-1 if you so choose.

FX spreads are decent, probably average on most pairs.

EUR/USD - 3
EUR/JPY - 4
USD/JPY - 3
GBP/USD - 4
EUR/TRY - 30
USD/NOK - 50
USD/ILS - 60

Total of 47 pairs.
  • #9,699
  • Jul 13, 2010 10:45am Jul 13, 2010 10:45am
Quoting Low
http://i25.tinypic.com/24vijgn.png

http://i32.tinypic.com/2k0rxh.png

http://i31.tinypic.com/2rd7yud.png
Let's see a close up on that GBP NZD long. Is there price action involved? Or are you playing the trend line solely?
  • #9,700
  • Jul 13, 2010 10:52am Jul 13, 2010 10:52am
Quoting clockwork71
Let's see a close up on that GBP NZD long. Is there price action involved? Or are you playing the trend line solely?
Just the TL. All in all, I've pretty much lost confidence in this trade, but if the TL fails, then it's pretty clear there's nothing here.

One way or another I get to find out.

Everybody should know by now.....my biggest weakness is that I am a gunslinger. One thing I am hoping to learn how to moderate through the managed account demo.
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