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Trading 'The Turn'

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Jun 21, 2010 5:35am Jun 21, 2010 5:35am
So, you have your super, duper ranging system/method which wrings pips out of a sideways market. You also (lucky sod!) have your turbo-charged trending method, which entails a security van having to deliver your profits from your broker to your bank. But..................

..............what different method(s) do you use for determining which of the two to use, and exactly the right moment to cease trading one and commence trading the other? I've personally tried a few, but seem (at the moment) to have become comfortable with TL's on a higher TF.
I'd also like to know the exact moment when a trend starts so please, those who know don't hesitate to inform us.
Most of the time it's when you just see it finishing.
Quoting Sauron
I'd also like to know the exact moment when a trend starts so please, those who know don't hesitate to inform us.
Forgive me for not writing my original post in plain English. The point I was trying to make is, that you cannot just ignore changing market conditions.
Well, actually you can, if you trade a very long TF, or if you are a liquidity volunteer.
As the movements from ranging to trending market will regularly occur, they will always require some kind of a tactic or approach or a method to attempt to move with the market sooner rather than fighting against it. Unless you prefer just to stand there looking stupid.
Imbecilic notions of reading 'exact moments when a trend starts' are, of course, for the educated idiot or novice. Or smart-ass.
Searching for a magical indicator or crystal ball which informs you immediately of changing market conditions would indeed be both fatuous and amusing.
Comparing notes on how quickly different traders have learned to read market turns and respond tactically, albeit belatedly, to the turns would probably appear not to be.
Quoting Interceptor
TL's on a higher TF.
Yes, me, too. When the technicals fail, you know something is amiss. At this point, you have two options:
1) chase the market
2) sit on your hands until the technicals become clear
The market reveals who we really are...
Quoting shadowninja
Yes, me, too. When the technicals fail, you know something is amiss. At this point, you have two options:
1) chase the market
2) sit on your hands until the technicals become clear
But what if you have developed two methods? One for ranging market conditions, and one for trending. Both methods are strong and profitable when traded in conjunction with corresponding markets. Staying out of the market is the safest course, but there is an obvious opportunity cost to doing so.
Impossible to perfect, but probably possible to optimize?
Trending or Ranging depends on your trading timeframe, it may be ranging on the 4 hour chart, but for the 5 minute trader the same chart is trending albeit between the high & low of the range.
The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself - Felix Baumgartner
To identify the market turning point, use the principle law
of chart
ex: u looking to go long but u see LL1 and no sign of
HL. What is gonna happen when prices coming down
and break LL1? Are u still look to go long ?
The awnser is No , only short
that is where market trending down

simple rule : hh - hl - lh - ll
hope this help
not really that hard to with very %
here is how i do it

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teb
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Sometimes start of trends are more obvious than others, it's more of a case if in doubt stay out rather than always trying to identify that change, always the rule - wait for a clear signal.
  • Post #11
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  • Edited 9:43pm Jun 21, 2010 2:32pm | Edited 9:43pm
Quoting PurplePatch
Sometimes start of trends are more obvious than others, it's more of a case if in doubt stay out rather than always trying to identify that change, always the rule - wait for a clear signal.

no it depends what your trading stye is
tops and bottoms are great
with good money management

teb
It depends how clear the bottle is!
Quoting Interceptor
...Imbecilic notions of reading 'exact moments when a trend starts' are, of course, for the educated idiot or novice. Or smart-ass...
You asked for the "exactly right moment" so look in the mirror for the author of imbecilic wishes.

Now, regardless of the time frame or some fancy indicator, any serious trend will begin with a significant breakout while the fundamentals will back its direction. From that moment any trend-following strategy will work great as long as you're willing to wait for the trend to establish new highs/lows and to break new significant levels.
Quoting Sauron
You asked for the "exactly right moment" so look in the mirror for the author of imbecilic wishes.

Now, regardless of the time frame or some fancy indicator, any serious trend will begin with a significant breakout while the fundamentals will back its direction. From that moment any trend-following strategy will work great as long as you're willing to wait for the trend to establish new highs/lows and to break new significant levels.
Determining the change in market conditions is inexact.
However, deciding exactly when to change your method is a precise moment. You can't 'gradually' change from one system/method to another.

I take your point re the significant breakout, but it doesn't always happen like that. It's nice when the market announces what's on it's mind, but sometimes it just plain doesn't.
Price is the key + law of chart structure
tf : intraday = 15 mins chart
Here are the rules of ranging markets and trending markets:

A range always remains a range until it doesn't.

A trend is always trending until it isn't.

Just a rational thought process....not something I trade, but:

Identify major levels of S/R. As price vacillates between levels, draw a box. Look for PA at the top or bottom of the box. If the PA succeeds, ( a bullish pin bar at the bottom of the box sends price back into the box) you are still ranging. If the PA fails, play the retest/breakout, since failed signals tell us a lot too.
Quoting natanas
Here are the rules of ranging markets and trending markets:

A range always remains a range until it doesn't.

A trend is always trending until it isn't.

Absolutely, the market will continue to do what the market is doing until it does something different, starting off with this assumption is a good place to start on your trading strategy.
Quoting PurplePatch
Absolutely, the market will continue to do what the market is doing until it does something different, starting off with this assumption is a good place to start on your trading strategy.
Agreed.
But what comes AFTER that assumption?
  • Post #20
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  • Last Post: Jun 22, 2010 5:03am Jun 22, 2010 5:03am
Quoting Low
Just a rational thought process....not something I trade, but:

Identify major levels of S/R. As price vacillates between levels, draw a box. Look for PA at the top or bottom of the box. If the PA succeeds, ( a bullish pin bar at the bottom of the box sends price back into the box) you are still ranging. If the PA fails, play the retest/breakout, since failed signals tell us a lot too.
That's a good starting point.
But things get complicated once you start to try to plan for false breakouts etc.
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