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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #6,821
  • Jun 10, 2010 8:56am Jun 10, 2010 8:56am
Quoting Custos
Don't give it up yet. Right now it's just a spike through. It immediately turned below the resistance level again. But let's see...
okay, now it really looks like it won't hold, yeah, I agree, there is a good resistance level just above it.
  • #6,822
  • Jun 10, 2010 10:13am Jun 10, 2010 10:13am
Quoting Custos
okay, now it really looks like it won't hold, yeah, I agree, there is a good resistance level just above it.
ok ...i was about to ask as to how did it go ... i am at my office so cant really see it right now.

It will take some time before reaching the next level.
  • #6,823
  • Jun 10, 2010 12:39pm Jun 10, 2010 12:39pm
Hi Custos ,

May I ask you these questions :-


1 by placing stop loss , I experience so many times the market hit my SL , how can I avoid this ?
2 What is you stratergy ?
  • #6,824
  • Jun 10, 2010 12:46pm Jun 10, 2010 12:46pm
Short the GBP/USD at your own risk. I was doing that yesterday when it was bouncing in a range, but got out last night before the huge upswing.

1.4700 coming?

I'll wait for the market to show the reverse. Not going to predict anything.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #6,825
  • Jun 10, 2010 1:29pm Jun 10, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting Ibz
Hi Custos ,

May I ask you these questions :-


1 by placing stop loss , I experience so many times the market hit my SL , how can I avoid this ?
2 What is you stratergy ?
Before Custos answers your questions .... here is a quick hint ...if you scroll back a few posts you will see a detail discussion on SL placement.

I hope it will help clarify some aspects.

Cheers
  • #6,826
  • Jun 10, 2010 1:37pm Jun 10, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting Ibz
Hi Custos ,

May I ask you these questions :-


1 by placing stop loss , I experience so many times the market hit my SL , how can I avoid this ?
2 What is you stratergy ?
hi Ibz,

ad 1: haha, avoid getting your stoploss hit? Haha, you can either use no stoploss or a really wide stop loss then it will almost never get hit.
No seriously, maybe your stop loss is too tight for the strategy you employ or the strategy you use has not a very high hit rate. Either way: getting your stoploss hit is not necessarily a bad thing.
If your strategy shoots for a high R:R, then stop loss hits are a necessity to keep losses small and then pay with one or two winners all your losers and go into profit.
If your strategy shoots for a high win-loss, then you don't want to get your stop loss hit too often, otherwise it won't be a high win-loss. But please don't put your stop loss in irrational places like 500 pips away on an intra-day trade. Of course then you gonna have maybe a 100% win-loss ratio until that one trade that wipes your pips out and you are 500 pips in the negative.
I always put my stops behind S/R levels. Hope that helps, otherwise ask me again

ad 2: my trend trading strategy is basically the same you can find on danUK's thread. So you may refer to that thread for learning about that strategy. But basically it is S/R level trading in direction of the trend.
Then I also have a range trading strategy, based on S/R levels alone. You can find some nuggets in the last few posts I made. There I was talking about range trading. But I highly recommend you not to try that one in the beginning. It is a little difficult to apply for newbies. Also I am still developing it, so it is not a fool-proof strat yet.

hope that answers your questions. If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to ask.

cheers
  • #6,827
  • Jun 10, 2010 1:52pm Jun 10, 2010 1:52pm
Hello everybody.
Already follow this forum for a long time, but this is my first post.

Just to share the following thoughts:
If USDCAD H4 pass below the 1.02850 level, I think it might be a good opportunity to be short.

Regards
Jackk
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.jpg Size: 110 KB
  • #6,828
  • Jun 10, 2010 2:28pm Jun 10, 2010 2:28pm
Quoting Jackk
Hello everybody.
Already follow this forum for a long time, but this is my first post.

Just to share the following thoughts:
If USDCAD H4 pass below the 1.02850 level, I think it might be a good opportunity to be short.

Regards
Jackk
Hi jackk,

Welcome on board and thanks for your contribution.

now to the usdcad h4. Yes it would be a good opportunity from the h4 chart alone. But let's switch to the weekly chart for a moment. As you can see from my chart, we have a support level at around 1.02400. So in a sense you would be selling against support. Having said that, it is still a good opportunity, you should just be aware that you have weekly support below.

cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad w1 10.6.2010.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #6,829
  • Edited 7:27pm Jun 10, 2010 6:15pm | Edited 7:27pm
Japanese economy posted some strength lately and the USD appears to be weakening against the JPY in descending triangle formation resting on a daily support. Weekly S/R is red, Monthly is blue.

Overall weekly trend has been down. For the last few weeks it has been in a sideways range with no clear trend. This week bar is forming a Doji (Indecision) prior week's bar clearly shows bears were in control as price closed more than half way down the bar.

Review of the H4 bars within the triangle indicates that price is retreating. There have been a few up bars within the triangle with very low volume i.e. no demand, there are Dojis on very high volume i.e. selling is taking place. Overall weakness is appearing.

In my view, so far, its setting up pretty good as a short sell candidate at the break and retest of the triangle base line. However there are two USD related news due in the next 13 hrs ...which would trigger the next move.

Lets see how this unfolds. Anyone else watching it ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY-H4.jpg Size: 117 KB
  • #6,830
  • Edited 7:59pm Jun 10, 2010 7:25pm | Edited 7:59pm
This one appear to be a short sell candidate at the specified level. I'll appreciate input on the limit order and SL placement. SL is about 90 pips away above the swing high.

I placed the limit sell order on the one level above the most immediate one as the current one is too near. The next level is quite clearly visible on the daily as well.

Custos ...whats your take on this one.

Thanks in advance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR-AUD-H4.jpg Size: 154 KB
  • #6,831
  • Jun 10, 2010 11:18pm Jun 10, 2010 11:18pm
Risks to global economy have 'risen significantly', top IMF official warns

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...ial-warns.html
  • #6,832
  • Jun 10, 2010 11:47pm Jun 10, 2010 11:47pm
I just want to throw in a comment/compliment to Nightmoves. I've read quite a bit of his posts on this and about three other threads and there is a very unique edge he brings to the table. I hope everyone catches it and learns from it. Myself I've been involved in TA either full or part time for over ten years and although I've probably had the opportunity to learn this time and time again, it wasnt until reading some of Nightmoves posts that I realized what I'd been missing.

Anyone with any experience has probably used trend lines and support, even if a completely naked trader, you'd pay attention to these.

Nightmoves stresses CONFLUENCE, subtle but powerful difference. I've begun using confluence as a minimum in my trades, and sure I trade less but have quite a few more winners. Just as any s/r level is stronger when its been tested and held multiple times, confluence of a trendline, s/r line, MA, round number, etc. will give you an even higher probability trade.

Just my two bits, Kudos to you Nightmoves for sharing this
  • #6,833
  • Jun 11, 2010 1:11am Jun 11, 2010 1:11am
hi, I agree with the short potential. However I would wait till usd/jpy is going below my blue line and retesting it from below for a short. Attached is usd/jpy daily.
Quoting MktScape
Japanese economy posted some strength lately and the USD appears to be weakening against the JPY in descending triangle formation resting on a daily support. Weekly S/R is red, Monthly is blue.

Overall weekly trend has been down. For the last few weeks it has been in a sideways range with no clear trend. This week bar is forming a Doji (Indecision) prior week's bar clearly shows bears were in control as price closed more than half way down the bar.

Review of the H4 bars within the triangle indicates that price is retreating. There have been a...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy d1 11.6.2010.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #6,834
  • Jun 11, 2010 1:18am Jun 11, 2010 1:18am
Quoting MktScape
This one appear to be a short sell candidate at the specified level. I'll appreciate input on the limit order and SL placement. SL is about 90 pips away above the swing high.

I placed the limit sell order on the one level above the most immediate one as the current one is too near. The next level is quite clearly visible on the daily as well.

Custos ...whats your take on this one.

Thanks in advance.
perfect level, agree totally with that one.
Now to the stops: Attached is my eur/aud h4 chart. the two lower blue lines are the boundaries of resistance of this S/R level you pointed out. Now you could put your stop above that S/R level, OR you can widen your stop above the next S/R level. (both stops are red lines)

hope I made myself clear, otherwise just ask me again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud h4 11.6.2010.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #6,835
  • Jun 11, 2010 8:06am Jun 11, 2010 8:06am
Thanks Custos and all for the great help .



Quoting Custos
hi Ibz,

ad 1: haha, avoid getting your stoploss hit? Haha, you can either use no stoploss or a really wide stop loss then it will almost never get hit.
No seriously, maybe your stop loss is too tight for the strategy you employ or the strategy you use has not a very high hit rate. Either way: getting your stoploss hit is not necessarily a bad thing.
If your strategy shoots for a high R:R, then stop loss hits are a necessity to keep losses small and then pay with one or two winners all your losers and go into profit.
If your strategy shoots for...
  • #6,836
  • Jun 11, 2010 8:29am Jun 11, 2010 8:29am
since nobody else is posting setups today, I thought I post some range trading setups I made today on the eur/aud h1. Kept me quite busy. 0 losses and around 350 pips in the bank, but this is pure range trading. And today that pair is seriously choppy, perfect for that kind of trading.
And the one "x" I marked is a new rule I have for S/R levels which don't seem to get respected anymore. At that time, I was uncomfortable with price first closing below and then above the S/R level without respecting it anymore. Now instead of reversing my position I just closed it out and waited for price to go to another S/R level. Attached is the m15 chart since it is easier to mark up my entries for you guys, but I don't use that time-frame to make my trades, only the h1.

By the way, I know this thread is called trend trading all pairs, so if you guys don't like me talking about range trading please just say something, then I post trend trading setups only. Just thought maybe it is valuable for somebody.

oh and comments are very appreciated. Just post away
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud m15 11.6.2010.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #6,837
  • Jun 11, 2010 8:29am Jun 11, 2010 8:29am
Quoting Ibz
Thanks Custos and all for the great help .
no problem, always glad to help
  • #6,838
  • Jun 11, 2010 9:16am Jun 11, 2010 9:16am
Quoting Custos
since nobody else is posting setups today, I thought I post some range trading setups I made today on the eur/aud h1. Kept me quite busy....
I am swamped at work today .... gotta work on a very urgent issue.

Will be in touch.
  • #6,839
  • Jun 11, 2010 9:57am Jun 11, 2010 9:57am
Quoting Custos
since nobody else is posting setups today, I thought I post some range trading setups I made today on the eur/aud h1. Kept me quite busy....
Thank you Custos for sharing. I appreciate it.
I learn a lot from reading your postings.
But I have a question, do you look at the volume before entering a position. I learn in stock trading that the volume is important.


Soendoro Soetanto
  • #6,840
  • Jun 11, 2010 9:59am Jun 11, 2010 9:59am
Custo, Thanks for the range trading strategy...Am really studing to understand it...I believe you can share light on it

Quoting Custos
since nobody else is posting setups today, I thought I post some range trading setups I made today on the eur/aud h1. Kept me quite busy....
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