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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #1,161
  • May 6, 2010 8:53am May 6, 2010 8:53am
Mostly cloudy today with a slight chance our Island may sink.
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  • #1,162
  • May 6, 2010 8:55am May 6, 2010 8:55am
Quoting MarcVUM
TP on N/U hit. Plus 59 in the bag!
Nice work Marc!
  • #1,163
  • May 6, 2010 9:28am May 6, 2010 9:28am
E/U: long again at 1.27 , sl=50
lets see if 100% fib ext has been enough for them
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  • #1,164
  • May 6, 2010 10:51am May 6, 2010 10:51am
Someone sent me a PM asking how I trade. Most of you are familiar with it, but here is a brief summary I thought I would share:


When I first get to the desk, I usually pull up at most 7 pairs. I really like just trading USD crosses due to the fact that I will only have to analyze two sets of variables. USD data and the other currency's data. I know that this does limit me in my trading options, but it allows me to keep US data in the back of my mind while looking at the other currency data. I also do not give myself double exposure trading this way.

My main trading style is S/R (Support and Resistance), "00" numbers or "round" numbers, TL (Trend Lines), Simple MAs (Moving Averages of 40, 50, 100 and 200) and Fibs (Fibonacci Ex and Fibonacci Ret). I have MACD, Stochastic Osc and Momentum at the bottoms of my charts just to give me an overall idea of market condition and to not get into any "traps."

On a fresh chart I immediately post up, with a lime green line, all "00"s that have a potential of being struck during the trading session. I start at a D1 or 4hr chart and work my way down to 30M. On the high time frame, I look for obvious S/R and mark those with a thick yellow line. I then work my way down and mark up smaller S/R with smaller thickness yellow lines. The more thick the line, the easier it was to spot on higher S/R and the more probable PA will react on that level. If PA on smaller time frames finds S/R significant multiple times, the line is made blue. Now I have all of my horizontal S/R marked up so I know where obvious and not so obvious PA reactions will occur. I then to the same thing with TLs and Fibs, starting high and working my way down. When you are done, you will find confluence areas of great significance where extremely high probability setups can occur. Now that you have your S/R, TLs and Fibs in place, you can add your MAs.

I find that a 50/40 pair of simple MAs work well in tandem and complement each other really well. I have found, from my trading, that PA action around MA 40 will be a predictor of PA action with MA 50. If PA slows around MA 40, it will usually turn PA around in the 50/40 gap or at 50. If PA finds no real friction at MA 40, it will usually plow through 50 and MA 100 will be your next significant friction and then to 200. Also, as MA 50 and 100 intermingle you can get a really good idea what kind of trading regime you are in and as MA 100 and 200 intermingle, you will get a good idea of trend direction and strength.

Also, if you read through the post you will find a few from me about my opinions on steepness of PA when attacking a S/R or "00" line. Long story short, I like it more steep and if PA mellows right before, it is a no trade situation.

I also trade "00"s religiously. The best "00" trades are with the trend when PA comes back up to test a "00" roof. I would have much tighter stops and TPs with a counter-trend "00" bounce.

All of this is strictly only taking into consideration the items above. There are many other factors that need to be considered, such as news, data, time of day, etc... All of those factors are up to the trader to evaluate on their own. So the above is a vacuum situation/analysis.
  • #1,165
  • May 6, 2010 11:05am May 6, 2010 11:05am
You have to go all the way back to February to find a support for A/U! Crazy. I closed a short position and won't trade again until after 5:30pm est.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,166
  • May 6, 2010 11:07am May 6, 2010 11:07am
Quoting MarcVUM
You have to go all the way back to February to find a support for A/U! Crazy. I closed a short position and won't trade again until after 5:30pm est.
Yes. I gave up also. Will re look tomorrow.
  • #1,167
  • May 6, 2010 11:08am May 6, 2010 11:08am
Quoting MarcVUM
You have to go all the way back to February to find a support for A/U! Crazy. I closed a short position and won't trade again until after 5:30pm est.
Ya, I don't think I will be trading anymore today. Tomorrow is freaky friday so I don't know how much I will be trading tomorrow too
  • #1,168
  • May 6, 2010 11:27am May 6, 2010 11:27am
Ok. A/U, there is fantastic support at 88"00". If it reaches which is highly likely I will take a quick long for 5-10 pips.
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,169
  • May 6, 2010 11:30am May 6, 2010 11:30am
Was anyone smart enough to hang onto a short at 9260 on A/U?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,170
  • May 6, 2010 11:31am May 6, 2010 11:31am
wow this roller coaster never ends
i had been waiting for a signal for retracement longs but they never came
how are you guys doing saxon, marc?
  • #1,171
  • May 6, 2010 11:33am May 6, 2010 11:33am
Quoting OvT
wow this roller coaster never ends
i had been waiting for a signal for retracement longs but they never came
how are you guys doing saxon, marc?
Doing good but scared!

Saxon, A/U is coming in pretty steep into 8800 just like you prefer. Your feelings? I'm starting to think a 50 pip bounce from 88???
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,172
  • May 6, 2010 11:33am May 6, 2010 11:33am
yen's movement is crazy as well, what's going on?
  • #1,173
  • May 6, 2010 11:34am May 6, 2010 11:34am
Quoting MarcVUM
Doing good but scared!

Saxon, A/U is coming in pretty steep into 8800 just like you prefer. Your feelings? I'm starting to think a 50 pip bounce from 88???
waiting for a good bounce as well but it's pretty risky taking bounces now
only with a realllllly tight SL
  • #1,174
  • May 6, 2010 11:41am May 6, 2010 11:41am
Quoting OvT
yen's movement is crazy as well, what's going on?

Guess all running to the hills. The equtiies collapsed as well.
  • #1,175
  • May 6, 2010 11:41am May 6, 2010 11:41am
Quoting OvT
yen's movement is crazy as well, what's going on?
DOW is down 425+
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,176
  • May 6, 2010 11:46am May 6, 2010 11:46am
wtf
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  • #1,177
  • May 6, 2010 11:47am May 6, 2010 11:47am
Quoting MarcVUM
DOW is down 425+
this is worse than feb 6th the greece problem first surfaced
a/u 8800 gone without doing anything
  • #1,178
  • May 6, 2010 11:49am May 6, 2010 11:49am
Quoting MarcVUM
Doing good but scared!

Saxon, A/U is coming in pretty steep into 8800 just like you prefer. Your feelings? I'm starting to think a 50 pip bounce from 88???
Long A/U ??? dude you have a strong heart
  • #1,179
  • May 6, 2010 11:54am May 6, 2010 11:54am
Gold, is coming into my sell target at 1210 , watch it when it's falling like a stone
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  • #1,180
  • May 6, 2010 11:56am May 6, 2010 11:56am
Quoting shahab8b
Long A/U ??? dude you have a strong heart
Twice and I made 60 pips! In like 3 minutes
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
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