When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas
- #2,141
- Apr 23, 2010 8:49am Apr 23, 2010 8:49am
- Joined Feb 2010 | Status: ...everything will be fine... | 2,834 Posts
- #2,142
- Apr 23, 2010 8:54am Apr 23, 2010 8:54am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
- #2,143
- Apr 23, 2010 8:57am Apr 23, 2010 8:57am
- Joined Feb 2010 | Status: ...everything will be fine... | 2,834 Posts
A/U is a no short atm , Gold & silver finished their downward correction move, we will see USD weakness again imo
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
- #2,144
- Apr 23, 2010 9:01am Apr 23, 2010 9:01am
What do you guys/gals think of the semi-breach of lower TL?
That's actually the line I have been watching closely.
For me it was tested with some slippage today. bouncing back up from there made me going for a lil Long.
To really convince me of a down-move I'd like to see a H4 close below that line. think we will stay up here a lil more....
Maybe a gap down will help to get below it
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
- #2,145
- Apr 23, 2010 9:02am Apr 23, 2010 9:02am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
Always nice to know you in the same boat
Had a pretty hard week. Back to a tiny account size now...
Think I really might let that one run a bit longer (If I had more positions I would TP on part of it, but I haven't)
Hope the weekend doesn't "gap me" and will wait what the weekly pivot/s/r look like next week.
You got your stop according to the LSR on that one?
Had another nice trade Long A/U. from weekly S1 on the second bounce.
Closed that one for 30 pips when the New home Sales number printed.
Thought it would be pro USD but it turned...
btw, my trade on E/G was purely based on TL & W S, no indi on that one
- #2,146
- Edited 9:25am Apr 23, 2010 9:05am | Edited 9:25am
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts
Hi Patience, do you have the rest of the report? I'm curious about U/Cad, A/U and U/J
btw ,take a look at my NASDAQ chart, I'm feeling the fall -in a week or two
SSI: USDCAD Ratio Pushes Higher Following a 15% Drop in Retail Shorts
Friday, 23 Apr 2010 10:15 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, DailyFX Research
FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:
Intraday Highlight:
USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 3.61 as nearly 78% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.03 as 75% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.0% higher than yesterday and 34.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 15.1% lower than yesterday and 15.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.0% weaker than yesterday and 2.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.
SSI Details:
EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.02 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.79 as 64% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 10.2% lower than yesterday and 35.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 64.7% higher than yesterday and 43.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 16.6% stronger than yesterday and 12.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.
GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.26 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.19 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.4% lower than yesterday and 10.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.3% higher than yesterday and 10.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.7% stronger than yesterday and 2.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.
GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.55 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.57 as 61% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.0% higher than yesterday and 10.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.1% higher than yesterday and 57.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.4% stronger than yesterday and 9.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.
USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.91 as nearly 66% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.64 as 62% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.0% higher than yesterday and 22.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.0% lower than yesterday and 62.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 8.0% stronger than yesterday and 17.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.
USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.27 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.42 as 59% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.4% higher than yesterday and 18.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 8.2% lower than yesterday and 85.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.9% weaker than yesterday and 9.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.
AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.21 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.07 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 13.0% higher than yesterday and 48.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 12.9% lower than yesterday and 6.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.4% weaker than yesterday and 0.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.
NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.19 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.12 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.9% lower than yesterday and 3.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 46.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.3% stronger than yesterday and 7.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.
Nothing worth having is easy.
- #2,147
- Apr 23, 2010 9:14am Apr 23, 2010 9:14am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
Sorry Shahab, was just catching up on all the previous posts. If they post one tonight I'll pop it on the thread over the weekend. Robert Precther has a week for his prediction to come through.
wow look at those smart traders holding long on U/J , that's been my favorite trade over past 3-4 weeks, when it was falling I was adding to my longs, last week and on Mon this week I was about to freak out with all those red trades but now I'm a happy man after taking profit on all of them
- #2,148
- Apr 23, 2010 9:14am Apr 23, 2010 9:14am
atm I'm flat on USD pairs (only long E/G an E/J) , after those gold & silver move I don't feel holding long USD over the weekend. will evaluate the charts over the weekend , it was a difficult week at the beaning after losing 4% equity, but I took them back + 3% extra + green pips on E/G, E/J with Sl>B/E on both
btw, my trade on E/G was purely based on TL & W S, no indi on that one
)Think I will regret taking the 30 pips of that Long A/U.
(close the news-calender and just look to the chart is the better choice sometimes)
But we will see
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
- #2,149
- Apr 23, 2010 9:16am Apr 23, 2010 9:16am
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts
it clearly is a choppy market. I am one of them. I was long last night before getting stopped out at 1.3240 this morning so I entered a short at 1.3220.
so Basically If I didn't do anything and had no s/l order in place, I would have been in profit but instead I am in loss now and price is 70 pips higher than my closing price last night.
what a day/week/month of trading this has been for me...
Not happy :-(
I've had a lot of those days, weeks and months in my time. Even though the E/U seemed to be in some sort of downward spiral the last few days, it has only done 11% (or 33 pips) over it's average weekly range (for the last 26 weeks) so it hasn't done anything out of the ordinary.You'll bounce back
Nothing worth having is easy.
- #2,150
- Apr 23, 2010 9:23am Apr 23, 2010 9:23am
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts
Thank you,
wow look at those smart traders holding long on U/J , that's been my favorite trade over past 3-4 weeks, when it was falling I was adding to my longs, last week and on Mon this week I was about to freak out with all those red trades but now I'm a happy man after taking profit on all of them
Even though the ratio is still long, there has been an increase of 62.9% of shorts since last week and a 22.7% drop in longs.
Nothing worth having is easy.
You'll bounce back
I have now lost more than 1 month's of my salary on Forex in past 9 months.
I have last $1,400 left in my account. If I blow this up, I am out.
My equity was like:
$1650 - EURUSD @ 1.3310 - same period last night and I was long.
$1430 - EURUSD @ 1.3370 - 24 hours later.
Infact, it should have been closer to $1,800!!!
I have lost my confidence and that's the main thing. I need to build my confidence, play with micro lots and be a position/swing trader instead of being a scalper.
any help/suggestions welcome.
Good night/evening.
- #2,152
- Apr 23, 2010 9:33am Apr 23, 2010 9:33am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
Nice one
that's right, they are adding short to fight the trend , typical retailers (I still do the same some times, as I'm still one of them). overall, I think trading has not been easy in April, the Greece and GS issue move the market up and down in no time. at a time they are doomed ,the next hour they are saved.
- #2,153
- Apr 23, 2010 9:42am Apr 23, 2010 9:42am
- Joined Feb 2010 | Status: ...everything will be fine... | 2,834 Posts
I have lost my confidence and that's the main thing. I need to build my confidence, play with micro lots and be a position/swing trader instead of being a scalper.
any help/suggestions welcome.
But my persistence and tenacity have paid off quite well. Go back to the basics... buy and sell at S/R's. If you don't already use this site, Use It. http://www.actionforex.com/technical...-200603205734/ I got it from Shahab.
Now, start small with a micro-lot (10,000) and go after 3-5 pips at a time. I strongly suggest A/U because of the low volatility compared to something like G/U (which is an account breaker or maker).
If you need more advise just let me know!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
- #2,156
- Apr 23, 2010 10:01am Apr 23, 2010 10:01am
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts
Nothing worth having is easy.
- #2,158
- Apr 23, 2010 10:41am Apr 23, 2010 10:41am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: very junior member | 1,576 Posts
- #2,159
- Apr 23, 2010 11:53am Apr 23, 2010 11:53am
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts
EG - looks like it is heading for the next fib at .8600. MA's crossing over too.
Did you catch some pips on it? I was stuck with a long that I managed to get out of today. Just reminded me once again why I don't like to trade this cross. Always manages to go the opposite direction every time I trade it. Just like the Loonie Nothing worth having is easy.