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Silent Service Method

  • #8,201
  • Apr 21, 2010 4:27am Apr 21, 2010 4:27am
Quoting jharvey407
After working as a yacht captain for over 10 years I can assure you that I will never buy a boat. I can always charter a yacht.

But if I could direct your attention to the Piaggio Avanti...

The perfect way to commute between my house in the states and my house in Brazil. And yes I can fly it.
Nice! My wife and I saw an aircraft just like this flying low on it's way to the airport yesterday! It was badasss!
  • #8,202
  • Apr 21, 2010 4:29am Apr 21, 2010 4:29am
Quoting jharvey407
I'm still short USDCAD. When I went to bed last night I was up 142 with stop a BE. Following the techniques learned from this thread I just went to bed and let it ride. When I checked the charts just now I was up over 170. I moved my stop to just above the last bit of consolidation and locked in 130. Now it's time to just watch it plummet!!

I think this may be a text book example of this method. The trend is down. It printed a PIN bar on the daily right at a round number. I entered at the break of the PIN, and now we just have to wait and see...

Very nice trade my friend! I am already thinking about buying but who knows-it could fall to 50 cents if Samer is selling.
  • #8,203
  • Apr 21, 2010 4:44am Apr 21, 2010 4:44am
Quoting calderone
Very nice trade my friend! I am already thinking about buying but who knows-it could fall to 50 cents if Samer is selling.
Do you mind posting your analysis for your long? Looking at my weekly chart it seems that CAD has been in a down trend since early '09, and I am starting to be very wary of CT trades.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,204
  • Apr 21, 2010 4:48am Apr 21, 2010 4:48am
Quoting jharvey407
Do you mind posting your analysis for your long? Looking at my weekly chart it seems that CAD has been in a down trend since early '09, and I am starting to be very wary of CT trades.

I do not have a long setup but I am watching for a long setup. This is what I am seeing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad weekly.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #8,205
  • Apr 21, 2010 5:07am Apr 21, 2010 5:07am
Quoting calderone
I do not have a long setup but I am watching for a long setup. This is what I am seeing.
Ok. I have virtually the same levels on my chart. I am hoping for a test of .97 for this trade.
  • #8,206
  • Apr 21, 2010 5:11am Apr 21, 2010 5:11am
Quoting jharvey407
Ok. I have virtually the same levels on my chart. I am hoping for a test of .97 for this trade.

It could happen. I am just watching the daily for some signs of a reversal. I don't think cad will stay down too long but I can be wrong.

Good trading!
  • #8,207
  • Apr 21, 2010 8:36am Apr 21, 2010 8:36am
Quoting jharvey407
I'm still short USDCAD. When I went to bed last night I was up 142 with stop a BE. Following the techniques learned from this thread I just went to bed and let it ride. When I checked the charts just now I was up over 170. I moved my stop to just above the last bit of consolidation and locked in 130. Now it's time to just watch it plummet!!

I think this may be a text book example of this method. The trend is down. It printed a PIN bar on the daily right at a round number. I entered at the break of the PIN, and now we just have to wait and see...
Really nice trade. That's the way to do it.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,208
  • Apr 21, 2010 9:22am Apr 21, 2010 9:22am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Really nice trade. That's the way to do it.
Thanks, the market swung back up and knocked me out of the trade with +130.

Not bad really. The quick analysis I did the other day of the signals from this method seemed to indicate that most moves were in the 200 - 500 pip range. But that is from entry to peak, so some of it will be given back while waiting for an exit signal, or while waiting for the market to move back to stop.

My goal is to learn how to maximize the profits while minimizing the drawdowns. We'll see how it goes.
  • #8,209
  • Edited 9:37am Apr 21, 2010 9:36am | Edited 9:37am
I hear a lot of talk about people taking long positions on USDJPY, but I am wary of trading against the trend.

I was looking at the weekly chart and I think it has formed a 1 2 3 bottom. I am wondering if the low at X negates this pattern or not.

I have posted a chart for discussion. Any oppinions?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 2 3.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #8,210
  • Apr 21, 2010 9:47am Apr 21, 2010 9:47am
Quoting jharvey407
Thanks, the market swung back up and knocked me out of the trade with +130.

Not bad really. The quick analysis I did the other day of the signals from this method seemed to indicate that most moves were in the 200 - 500 pip range. But that is from entry to peak, so some of it will be given back while waiting for an exit signal, or while waiting for the market to move back to stop.

My goal is to learn how to maximize the profits while minimizing the drawdowns. We'll see how it goes.
There are two ways of looking at this I suppose. I know I have trailed some stops way too closely in the last month but then I've had plenty of trades that have reversed and I'm glad I did trail the stop more quickly. It's about striking a balance I think.

There are some trades that really need room to move and to do their own thing, even when they start to retrace on you. Look at usdsgd, if I'd have just got to break even on that trade and let it run I would still be in it and it looks like going lower. I trailed it and got stopped out for 150 pips. Ok, I'm happy with that but I'm aware that to trade Chris's method properly I need to learn to relax a lot more when I'm in a trade and just let it run. I expect I will get stopped out for a loss or at break even quite a few times but there will always be the home runs that make up for your patience.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,211
  • Edited 10:42am Apr 21, 2010 10:03am | Edited 10:42am
Quoting jharvey407
[...] I was looking at the weekly chart and I think it has formed a 1 2 3 bottom. I am wondering if the low at X negates this pattern or not. [...]
The quick answer is, "No." The Law of Charts ~ J. Ross states, "The entire 1-2-3 high or low is nullified when any price bar moves equal to or beyond the number 1 point." [emphasis mine]

So I suggest reading that booklet, if you haven't already; it's quite informative. It should answer many-a-question you may have about the 1-2-3 and so-called "Ross Hook" pattern, which is corollary to it.

Nice uSD/cAD trade
  • #8,212
  • Apr 21, 2010 10:59am Apr 21, 2010 10:59am
For all you "channel" traders that want to go with a trend, here is something I am watching. We are about to hit the top of this well defined channel (both daily and weekly). Any downward pointing price action would also be with the longterm trend.

EDIT: Also, note that the yellow MA is the 200 MA, another good source of potential resistance.

http://i44.tinypic.com/34sqe78.gif
  • #8,213
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:21am Apr 21, 2010 11:21am
Quoting TraderDavo
For all you "channel" traders that want to go with a trend, here is something I am watching. We are about to hit the top of this well defined channel (both daily and weekly). Any downward pointing price action would also be with the longterm trend.

EDIT: Also, note that the yellow MA is the 200 MA, another good source of potential resistance.
That's an interesting chart considering that gbpusd is about to meet resistance at 1.55.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,214
  • Apr 21, 2010 12:23pm Apr 21, 2010 12:23pm
Quoting Soca
The quick answer is, "No." The Law of Charts ~ J. Ross states, "The entire 1-2-3 high or low is nullified when any price bar moves equal to or beyond the number 1 point." [emphasis mine]

So I suggest reading that booklet, if you haven't already; it's quite informative. It should answer many-a-question you may have about the 1-2-3 and so-called "Ross Hook" pattern, which is corollary to it.

Nice uSD/cAD trade
That's what I thought. I read 'The Law of the Charts' very carefully when looking at this pattern. I even downloaded a 1 2 3 RH indicator and it confirmed the pattern, including a Ross Hook at the high of the break-out. I am going to watch this carefully to see where it goes.

Actually, an entry on the break of the second down bar from the peak would be a 'Traders Trick Entry' instead of waiting for a break of the Ross Hook. Very interesting stuff... but I don't mean to highjack CW's thread.
  • #8,215
  • Apr 21, 2010 12:50pm Apr 21, 2010 12:50pm
Quoting jharvey407
That's what I thought. I read 'The Law of the Charts' very carefully when looking at this pattern. I even downloaded a 1 2 3 RH indicator and it confirmed the pattern, including a Ross Hook at the high of the break-out. I am going to watch this carefully to see where it goes.

Actually, an entry on the break of the second down bar from the peak would be a 'Traders Trick Entry' instead of waiting for a break of the Ross Hook. Very interesting stuff... but I don't mean to highjack CW's thread.
You guys are speaking way over my head. Tone it down a bit for the special traders.
  • #8,216
  • Apr 21, 2010 1:27pm Apr 21, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting calderone
You guys are speaking way over my head. Tone it down a bit for the special traders.
No doubt. The bus I ride is a bit too short for this conversation. lol
  • #8,217
  • Apr 21, 2010 1:32pm Apr 21, 2010 1:32pm
The Greek bonds are blowing out, and that's bad. But what is possibly worse you ask? Portugal's bonds are starting to blow out, raising rates to an area that has been resistance a couple of time already.

It appears the bond vigilantes are getting ready to run wild through Europe.

We should have some clarity very, very soon.

I am still short the EUR.....and you don't have to be as well - but don't step in front of this train, going long if you value your account.

1.25 is still my target.

P.S. - I just realized with a plummeting Euro, we might be able to get good players over here in Major League Soccer. (And not douchebags like Beckham.)

I am hoping to see Zanetti and Ibrahimovic in Columbus kits next year! lol
  • #8,218
  • Apr 21, 2010 1:48pm Apr 21, 2010 1:48pm
Quoting clockwork71
No doubt. The bus I ride is a bit too short for this conversation. lol
It's simple. All you have to do is hold the bells. They'll drop in after the cherry sequence. (did the fast show make it that far?)

Inserted Video
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,219
  • Apr 21, 2010 2:06pm Apr 21, 2010 2:06pm
Inserted Video
  • #8,220
  • Apr 21, 2010 2:12pm Apr 21, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting clockwork71
The Greek bonds are blowing out, and that's bad. But what is possibly worse you ask? Portugal's bonds are starting to blow out, raising rates to an area that has been resistance a couple of time already.

It appears the bond vigilantes are getting ready to run wild through Europe.

We should have some clarity very, very soon.

I am still short the EUR.....and you don't have to be as well - but don't step in front of this train, going long if you value your account.

1.25 is [i]still my target.

P.S. - I just realized with a plummeting Euro,...
Bond vigilantes... you may have coined a new word

Beckham... he's actually one of the very best soccer players, the only problem is that his career lies behind him now. You should have seen him during the height of his career in Man utd.

I couldn't help but notice that EURGBP broke through the triangle today... sadly I'm already in positions so my risk rules prevent me from doing more than watching it... probably going to drop like a stone...
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