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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,321
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:17am Apr 6, 2010 11:17am
Quoting shahab8b
A/U short at .9250 has been taken
SL=.9275
SL=.92 & .9150

reason: classic div + weekly R1+ previous R
sl hit -25*2=-50 pips
  • #1,322
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:32am Apr 6, 2010 11:32am
bloomberg:

Fed Officials Saw Recovery Curbed by Unemployment, Minutes Show

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...ckO5pd1c&pos=1
  • #1,323
  • Apr 6, 2010 12:01pm Apr 6, 2010 12:01pm
Gold,

it looks like an inverted H & Sh , but I don't like calling it an inverted H & Sh.
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  • #1,324
  • Apr 6, 2010 2:04pm Apr 6, 2010 2:04pm
AU chart. Short entry around here (.9280-90) may stick. It's retraced to former support of April/May 2008. Might run into some decent resistance here. Cover it at break even once in profit. Could bounce again up to the 88.2 fib. I'm in short at .9285.
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  • #1,325
  • Apr 6, 2010 2:41pm Apr 6, 2010 2:41pm
S&P chart. This is a higher time frame monthly chart, but it shows the reasons why market may consider running short around here. 50 fib and some significant historical support/resistance areas at this level. I would ordinarily plot the fib from the April 2009 low, but sometimes the wider historical context is simply a better fit. The April low could be considered the panic over-shoot.
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  • #1,326
  • Edited 4:39pm Apr 6, 2010 2:52pm | Edited 4:39pm
Got with the program as stated for a + 43 pip win long on AUD/USD after a retrace and bounce at support. Its nice to be free of my long held and costly bearish bias and trade price in the moment
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BTC Return This Year: na
  • #1,327
  • Apr 6, 2010 3:35pm Apr 6, 2010 3:35pm
U/Cad

Buy Stop order at 1.0135 SL=1.0060 TP=1.030 & 1.050

P.S: I updated the first page and I'll take the pending orders
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  • #1,328
  • Apr 6, 2010 4:29pm Apr 6, 2010 4:29pm
Kiwi short trade

.7070 short has been taken at weekly pivot , SL=.7095 tp = .7015 .6985 RRR; 1:2.2 fort 1st target
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  • #1,329
  • Apr 6, 2010 4:48pm Apr 6, 2010 4:48pm
A/U has already satisfied EW count (61% projection) if it doesn't reverse here the next stop is 100% projection at .9409
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  • #1,330
  • Apr 6, 2010 4:55pm Apr 6, 2010 4:55pm
I changed the SL of long U/J taken at 93.80 from 93.50 to 92.80 due to failure of weekly pivot, but I'm fully bullish on the pair and think it will resume the uptrend after getting support from 55ema around 92.30-25
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  • #1,331
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:04pm Apr 6, 2010 5:04pm
Quoting shahab8b
E/J

buy limit at 125.25 confluence of R>s and weekly S1
SL=124.25 TP=128 & 129

the trade has been taken
  • #1,332
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:14pm Apr 6, 2010 5:14pm
Quoting shahab8b
I changed the SL of long U/J taken at 93.80 from 93.50 to 92.80 due to failure of weekly pivot, but I'm fully bullish on the pair and think it will resume the uptrend after getting support from 55ema around 92.30-25

let's see of I'm right t be bullish on U/J

there is a buy opportunity here at 92.60 (fan 38+fib 23) but I'm already fully laoded with long U/J wont add more atm
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  • #1,333
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:16pm Apr 6, 2010 5:16pm
Quoting shahab8b
the trade has been taken

E/J long from 92.25 still in buy zone
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  • #1,334
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:18pm Apr 6, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting shahab8b
let's see of I'm right t be bullish on U/J

there is a buy opportunity here at 92.60 (fan 38+fib 23) but I'm already fully laoded with long U/J wont add more atm
93.60? TP?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,335
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:19pm Apr 6, 2010 5:19pm
Quoting MarcVUM
93.60? TP?

I think you better hold it till 95.40, I'm that bullish
  • #1,336
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:24pm Apr 6, 2010 5:24pm
kiwi short trade from .7070 (+20 pips atm) , lets see if it falls further so I can move my SL to B/E
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  • #1,337
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:25pm Apr 6, 2010 5:25pm
Quoting shahab8b
I think you better hold it till 95.40, I'm that bullish
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,338
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:26pm Apr 6, 2010 5:26pm
shah, the euro isn't going up, it's going down with a thump. UJ has moved into risk-off mode rather than risk-on mode.

Other than the Greeks spitting out the IMF's nasty medicine, for the last few months the Dow has been heading north while the Euro has been heading south. Stop for a moment and just think about what is going to happen to the Euro if the S&P decides to run short around here. It is going to be massacred.

And that may just be what the EU needs to have happen right now, to spare the other PIIGS members when their debt payments fall due. Greece has 2 weeks to find a truckload of money, before the axe falls. They are 2 weeks away from bankruptcy. Germany will not wear any further loans to a nation that has been partying on EZ cheap money. Greece doesn't like the IMF's stringent loan conditions. Civil unrest is very high on the agenda and the fragmentation of the EU also. If you were an EU banker, would you be investing your billions in a currency that is so fragile right now?

Not saying don't do it, just don't do it with your eyes shut to the economic realities for the Euro.
  • #1,339
  • Apr 6, 2010 5:27pm Apr 6, 2010 5:27pm
Quoting MarcVUM
that E/J buy order from 125.25 was good, I didnt notice that it got filled till i saw 2 E/J long with +10 pips each, it was just one touch , I hate seeing trade in red
  • #1,340
  • Edited 6:11pm Apr 6, 2010 5:32pm | Edited 6:11pm
Quoting Jade Gate
shah, the euro isn't going up, it's going down with a thump. UJ has moved into risk-off mode rather than risk-on mode.

Other than the Greeks spitting out the IMF's nasty medicine, for the last few months the Dow has been heading north while the Euro has been heading south. Stop for a moment and just think about what is going to happen to the Euro if the S&P decides to run short around here. It is going to be massacred.

And that may just be what the EU needs to have happen right now, to spare the other PIIGS members when their debt payments...
G'day Jade Gate,
thanx for what you mentioned, I'm short E/U heavily from 1.3488 , but I'm long E/J and U/J , I think U/J has done with the down trend overall, I might be wrong (it wont be a suprise,lol) but that's my bias for now, (the chart is my view on Fri, lots of things have been changed but I hold to the short from 1.3488)
I 100% agree with what you said about Euro, that's why I've been trading E/U short side since forever, but I think U/J may go higher even in risk off mode- if you look at my ab=cd pattern for U/J I think we see 97 then fall to 90 again , I' unsure of the longer count but it's my midterm bais
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