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  • #121
  • Apr 4, 2010 9:11am Apr 4, 2010 9:11am
30 pages! Wow.
  • #122
  • Apr 4, 2010 5:26pm Apr 4, 2010 5:26pm
Firstly, you have to do whatever works for you, and I mean that with the greatest respect for your achievements. However EdgarNg is right when he observes a slight shift in your approach from the earlier pages in this thread. Personally I think your shift is well founded.

Quoting robertw
There is three parts to trading

1. Finding the trades (entry)
2. Money management
3. Finding the exits

#1 & #2 which is what most of the thread is about are not changing, they have worked for me so far and I'm sticking to my methods until they prove me wrong.
I'm only adjusting #3, based on my observations, emotions.
Its actually more of sticking to the rules which I used to bend before, due to greed. Many times I had both TP and SL set up but then the price started going for me so I just took off the TP or moved too far away, before I notice...
I found the GJ setup you were talking about earlier and would like to ask a couple of questions. I hope you can see the picture I attached.....

First question is that if you spot the rise A->B and then retracement to C, would you play for a second lift back to the B level or would you go for an equivalent size of secondary rise C->D at around 141.0?

Second question is would you have drawn the start from A or would you have gone back lower to the 138.0 region?

Finally an observation, and please feel free to ignore me. Back nearer the beginning of the thread you were looking to run some bigger winners - and I fully understand why you might not do that. So here is a possibility that applies only to these 110% certainties. At entry C you open two trades (Ok I realise that can be the same as one larger trade) and you shut down one of them at your chosen TP. The other trade then acquires a BE stoploss and is allowed to run until you deem it prudent to close. In this case quite a big score, but I don't know if I would have the resolve to hold it through dip in price at 13:00 on 31st.

Also these moves can tease you sometimes. I took a short on EU a few weeks back where the hang-point (around C in your example) developed a severe wobble before finally taking a dive - and of course the wobble spooked me so I was already out by then.......

Finally, how do you get the pictures embedded inline with the text?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dragon_Setup.PNG Size: 20 KB
Minesweeper target: 284
  • #123
  • Apr 5, 2010 7:10am Apr 5, 2010 7:10am
Personally, i think robert would enter below A, playing the break out.

All the candles didnt show any pin bars or hammers and their body is very small.

Lets wait for roberts reply how he would spot the pull backs since there is no price action at all?
  • #124
  • Apr 6, 2010 6:47pm Apr 6, 2010 6:47pm
Anyone seeing this
This is just too tempting to do only 20 pips
before i took the picture and typing this +20 pips alone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 040610641.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #125
  • Apr 6, 2010 6:50pm Apr 6, 2010 6:50pm
Hi Primate

for some reason I wasn't notified of any new posts on the thread and just noticed your right now. I'll be happy to answer after I get out of this GJ trade - too much fun.


R
  • #126
  • Apr 6, 2010 7:39pm Apr 6, 2010 7:39pm
Quote
Firstly, you have to do whatever works for you, and I mean that with the greatest respect for your achievements. However EdgarNg is right when he observes a slight shift in your approach from the earlier pages in this thread. Personally I think your shift is well founded.

Primate

I never said I will not change/adjust, in fact I always state that I hate EAs because of the fact that they can't adapt fast enough to changing markets.
There is a famous saying about those who don't change but it escapes me at the moment.
Even this 20/20 rule needs some further adjustment after I did some thinking about it and did some live trades with it, but I'll leave my thoughts on that for separate post.

What I want to avoid is dramatic changes in strategy (like some people like to do - a strategy a week) and please let me know when I get that far.
After three years I think I found what works for me but please understand that this is only framework and will take many months/years to tweak this and then markets constantly change so small adjustments will always be necessary if i want to stay alive.

Quote
First question is that if you spot the rise A->B and then retracement to C, would you play for a second lift back to the B level or would you go for an equivalent size of secondary rise C->D at around 141.0?

I would personally only go for B.
The reason is, is that sometimes these are only retests of the original B move.
But you can play this with a trailing stop in case it goes higher.

Quote
Second question is would you have drawn the start from A or would you have gone back lower to the 138.0 region?

I would go down to 138.
I always go for the clearest/sharpest peaks/valleys, and especially if they have been tested at least twice.

Quote
Back nearer the beginning of the thread you were looking to run some bigger winners

I'm still looking for the big move but in a sense of potential, I decided to exploit that potential to lesser degree. So, if I see a potential 100 pips move I'll set TP at 20-30 pips instead of 80-100 that set in the beginning.

Quote
At entry C you open two trades (Ok I realise that can be the same as one larger trade) and you shut down one of them at your chosen TP. The other trade then acquires a BE stop loss and is allowed to run until you deem it prudent to close. In this case quite a big score, but I don't know if I would have the resolve to hold it through dip in price at 13:00 on 31st.

It would be the same as just opening one large trade and just closing part of it and letting the rest run which is a feasible strategy as well. Generally I will close the position and sometimes re-enter if it keeps going.

Quote
Also these moves can tease you sometimes.

yes, they can but so can any other moves, anyway market is very teasing lately - maybe something we need to get used to.


Quote
Finally, how do you get the pictures embedded inline with the text?

No idea


R
  • #127
  • Apr 7, 2010 12:48am Apr 7, 2010 12:48am
Quoting robertw
Anyone seeing this
This is just too tempting to do only 20 pips
before i took the picture and typing this +20 pips alone

i dont see anything, please enligthen.
  • #128
  • Apr 7, 2010 6:44am Apr 7, 2010 6:44am
Quoting EdgarNg
i dont see anything, please enligthen.
It was the same set up as I described previously except in the opposite direction. It took a while to complete with some convoluted moves after I posted but nonetheless it completed as expected and I closed the positions this morning with a handsome profit.



R
  • #129
  • Apr 7, 2010 11:37am Apr 7, 2010 11:37am
Quoting robertw
Hi Primate

for some reason I wasn't notified of any new posts on the thread and just noticed your right now. I'll be happy to answer after I get out of this GJ trade - too much fun.


R
Hi, for a minute I was thinking Edgar and I had scared you off......
Thanks for your subsequent and complete response to my query.
I thought I was seeing the same thing as you, but I like to get another perspective.
Minesweeper target: 284
  • #130
  • Apr 8, 2010 5:35am Apr 8, 2010 5:35am
Great thread Robert, posting to subscribe.

I noticed your talking about a 20 pip TP. Most of my trading is based off taking high R:R trades averaging around 1:4

Why aren't you leaving trades open for days in the direction of the trend?

Regards Seb.
The greatest force on earth is compound interest.
  • #131
  • Apr 8, 2010 10:13am Apr 8, 2010 10:13am
Quoting sebastionay
Great thread Robert, posting to subscribe.

I noticed your talking about a 20 pip TP. Most of my trading is based off taking high R:R trades averaging around 1:4

Why aren't you leaving trades open for days in the direction of the trend?

Regards Seb.
Sebastionay Welcome

I simply don't have the stomach to watch the position oscillate.
Its a great way to work if you can tolerate that or have something more interesting to do.
It is a style that I'm definitely set to incorporate later into my trading, once my account gets large enough that it is worthwhile to split it into two strategies. For now I want to concentrate on what works for me and keep improving that.

I started the year with a certain strategy/plan, January-February worked great, March I had some external distractions and it was a lost month. Toward the end of March I put myself back on the path and the results are great again.
I'm writing this to show that the KEY in trading at least for me is being consistent and sticking to one's plan. It is hard but I guess success always is.

R
  • #132
  • Edited 3:01pm Apr 8, 2010 10:17am | Edited 3:01pm
Quoting Primate
I thought I was seeing the same thing as you, but I like to get another perspective.
Primate

I see these setups all the time, I'm trying to concentrate much of my trading on this pattern since it is so predictable. It works on all time frames.


R
  • #133
  • Apr 8, 2010 10:30am Apr 8, 2010 10:30am
Picture attached to show the Hit Ratio.
So far this week on this account 17 trades - 16 positive , 1 negative
16:1 is not bad so far, but its only four days.

I'm making an adjustment to my 20 SL policy.
Reasons:
After making some trades with that policy in mind it turns out that after all I have to have some flexibility.
Therefore, I still need to have a strong SL but I'll base it on M5 and M15 Support and Resistance levels. This will be more logical and at the same time I hope will make me focus on trades that are near those zones so I can limit my SL to few pips 5-10 ideally.
The SL would be put 3-4 pips below/above S/R level and this most likely will not work well with Dealing Desk brokers or maybe you can have an EA manage the SL with a DD broker.
I'm switching my main account to ECN broker anyway so I don't care.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: history1.jpg Size: 200 KB
  • #134
  • Apr 8, 2010 8:04pm Apr 8, 2010 8:04pm
I may have been too early with my previous wave count in GJ, but this repeated bounce off the 200 EMA makes things interesting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 04082010756.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #135
  • Apr 10, 2010 5:44am Apr 10, 2010 5:44am
Quoting robertw
Primate

I see these setups all the time, I'm trying to concentrate much of my trading on this pattern since it is so predictable. It works on all time frames.


R
You are absolutely right. What surprises me is that these patterns are so abundant - a fact which I had not appreciated until very recently; so thank you.

Friday I had a spectacular day milking these features. I made 3% - which is the right kind of figure to do 100% in a month. Now I just have to kill the stupidity days.

Good fortune on the road.
Minesweeper target: 284
  • #136
  • Apr 10, 2010 9:25pm Apr 10, 2010 9:25pm
What a tragedy for Poland yesterday.


Primate


Abundant and predictable.
Probably 8 or 9 out of 10 work out according to the pattern.
I'm going to try to play them with a tight stop loss.

I rely on patterns so much I'm beginning to call myself a pattern trader.

R
  • #137
  • Apr 17, 2010 12:37pm Apr 17, 2010 12:37pm
Looks like I have not posted anything for a week.

Well, its been a quite a good week, met my goals, closed almost all positions for the weekend, will try to stay away from the market on Sunday and looking forward to Monday.

Everything I laid out here is proving again that it works and I currently do not plan to make any adjustments for the time being.

Good weekend and good trading

R
  • #138
  • Apr 18, 2010 3:01am Apr 18, 2010 3:01am
I like your journal congrats on your great success! I am not consistently a winning trader and will be moving up to standard lot sizes very soon. in your post that showed your wins, are you trading standard lots?
  • #139
  • Apr 18, 2010 2:11pm Apr 18, 2010 2:11pm
I just signed up with Currensee to see what they are all about and found this interesting chart.
Probably confirms the ratio of loosing to winning traders at about 90:10 or worse if all the community can't beat the S&P

I don't think I'll be using the site too much anyway, don't like to share exactly all of my live trades and there are people who pay for this.

R
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: currensee.jpg Size: 68 KB
  • #140
  • Apr 18, 2010 2:20pm Apr 18, 2010 2:20pm
Quoting djhex
I like your journal congrats on your great success! I am not consistently a winning trader and will be moving up to standard lot sizes very soon. in your post that showed your wins, are you trading standard lots?
Hi and welcome


If I were you, I would not concern myself with what the name of the units you trade is, whether its standard, mini, micro or even nano. Just trade what your money management allows you based on your account balance.

I also don't concern myself too much with the dollars earned($$$) and focus on PERCENTAGE (%) returns. About 90% of my calculations are based on % or have something to do with %.

I prefer brokers which allow at least 10,000 units (some call it mini lots and some call it micro lots) which is 1/10 of a standard lot. This allows me to add more units as my balance grows without having to wait until I make enough to add a whole standard lot.


Good trading

R
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