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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #220,141
  • Apr 2, 2010 6:42am Apr 2, 2010 6:42am
Quoting PandoraBox
147 ?...nope......take a look from history movement...the pattern is same.

If my count correct ...next we might might see GJ drop back to 137/138..then we fly back north 147, 151 , 161 ..and test weekly resistance.
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  • #220,142
  • Apr 2, 2010 7:33am Apr 2, 2010 7:33am
Quoting grashid
rashid what do you think? up or down?
thank you
  • #220,143
  • Apr 2, 2010 8:06am Apr 2, 2010 8:06am
well, not much happened lately and i don't have anything better to do at the moment, so let me speculate a little bit on this situation.

nfp only brought a spike, another buy on the dip. but this didn't change much the overall situation, which is bullish. i still don't see significant distribution at these levels to make me believe a significant retracement will happen anytime soon. for now, minor support moved to 143.45/20. this area has to be cleared first IF we are to go below to 141.90/140.86. if...

other than that, not much... this is probably heading towards 148.30/70, where most important level of the year has been built. a break above and downtrend is over.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #220,144
  • Apr 2, 2010 8:28am Apr 2, 2010 8:28am
Quoting riko2705
rashid what do you think? up or down?
thank you
mine = down from now...check daily&H4....n let confirm by today close below 143.40/50 then 141.50/60 is 1st my target

good luck
  • #220,145
  • Apr 2, 2010 8:50am Apr 2, 2010 8:50am
Quoting grashid
mine = down from now...check daily&H4....n let confirm by today close below 143.40/50 then 141.50/60 is 1st my target

good luck
thank you rashid
good luck to you tooo
have nice weekend
  • #220,146
  • Apr 2, 2010 9:50am Apr 2, 2010 9:50am
I think I am going to leave some longs over the weekend for a possible gap.

The h1 50 ema has been gaining about 50 pips a day during this uptrend. That combined with the good news with closed banks I could definitely see a gap happening.
  • #220,147
  • Edited 10:32am Apr 2, 2010 10:20am | Edited 10:32am
Well let me be the 1st to say yields are steady at just below 4% and the NFP was good but wasn't a blow away number. . .

In fact little has changed in terms of unemployment but the good news is it's steady but a steady 9.75% which in the overall scheme of things is still not good. . .

In order for us to see further price increase it's going to take more data to justify higher price. . . Good news it that it doesn't warrant much lower price and I mean below 132 but we will see it range between here and probably support at 139.40/50 to 140 area. . .

Also look at the chart below ar'd this time last year and look at the chart 2010 - does this look familar to anyone. . .

Same pattern almost to the pip. . . I was expecting to see a spike up to at least 144.60 area but doesn't look that way. . .

So what can one expect. . . Well if history is an indication of the future then we can expect consolidation next week ar'd the these highs with a possible spike up to start the week

Then I expect we will drift lower as the market absorbs the data and get a nice retrace. . . I'm looking at a target of somewhere between 139.40/50 with maybe a spike down to at least 138-136 perhaps where I expect to try to take out weak longs but I see it being bought on the dips. . . from there I see a pathway toward 151 by end of Q2 with some consolidation above 139.40/50 after the dip area before the next leg up. . .

Keep in mind price has traveled a long way and we have reached 1.618 extension and if price is to go up further in what will look to be wave 5 we need a wave 4 down to relieve the OB situation. .

Also, weekly is saying buy any dips on major support. . . Also, keep in mind that 300 pips down is less than 30% of the 1100 pips it has traveled off the low. . . so 500 pips down is still less that 50% of the total total price traveled which would put price at 138 if price moves lower from here and 139 if we spike to 144.60 which is highly possible. . .

Happy pipn. . .
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  • #220,148
  • Edited 10:33am Apr 2, 2010 10:21am | Edited 10:33am
PK my man checking in I see. . .
  • #220,149
  • Apr 2, 2010 10:33am Apr 2, 2010 10:33am
Quoting quecee5
Pk the peepn checking in. . .
lol. hi there q.
  • #220,150
  • Apr 2, 2010 10:34am Apr 2, 2010 10:34am
Quoting pkimnyc
lol. hi there q.
Pretty much a non-event today. . . 50 pip movement on most pairs aside from the spikes. . .
  • #220,151
  • Apr 2, 2010 10:35am Apr 2, 2010 10:35am
Quoting quecee5
Pretty much a non-event today. . . 50 pip movement on most pairs. . .
ny market was closed today. big boys must be busy painting eggs.
  • #220,152
  • Apr 2, 2010 10:38am Apr 2, 2010 10:38am
Quoting pkimnyc
ny market was closed today.
Yep - zactly. . .

Talk to you over the weekend bro going to enjoy the rest of my day it's 75 degrees here. . .

  • #220,153
  • Apr 2, 2010 10:51am Apr 2, 2010 10:51am
Quoting quecee5
Yep - zactly. . .

Talk to you over the weekend bro going to enjoy the rest of my day it's 75 degrees here. . .

have a great holiday bro. going out as well. beautiful day today.
cya on weekend.
  • #220,154
  • Apr 2, 2010 11:07am Apr 2, 2010 11:07am
Juts one last thing. . .

So what can we expect for Sunday/Monday. . . Well I expect price to close right ar'd here since the markets are closed. Now on Sunday we could see a spike up from the herd because they didn't share in the news.

Here I expect a bull trap for people think'n price might be headed up further, then we should see price drift lower in a choppy manner ar'd 141 area which will be wave a of the 3 wave correction in wave 4, next a spike back up to 143.50 area for wave b of the 3 wave correction and further bull trap. . .
Then lastly wave c which should take us down to 137-138 with a possible spike to take out weak longs. . . This will be the buying zone (137-135.70) it is here you can pretty much buy, cut off the computer and set an alert or sell order for 150/151

Going to hold on to this post to see how it all plays. . .
  • #220,155
  • Apr 2, 2010 11:58am Apr 2, 2010 11:58am
Quoting quecee5
Juts one last thing. . .

So what can we expect for Sunday/Monday. . . Well I expect price to close right ar'd here since the markets are closed. Now on Sunday we could see a spike up from the herd because they didn't share in the news.

Here I expect a bull trap for people think'n price might be headed up further, then we should see price drift lower in a choppy manner ar'd 141 area which will be wave a of the 3 wave correction in wave 4, next a spike back up to 143.50 area for wave b of the 3 wave correction and further...
q, this is what i have so far.
still looking like there is more to the upside.

i know that we have hit the 161 fib ext today.

3 things to look at:

1. if the up move is indeed c wave then the real target should be somewhere ar'd 146.50.

2. if the up move is wave 3 then i would expect geppy will most likely travel much further.

3. as you have stated, in case the price does pull back to 137-136 area, shoot up to 151, then the initial wave is not completed yet.

let's see how this plays out.
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  • #220,156
  • Apr 2, 2010 12:44pm Apr 2, 2010 12:44pm
Quoting Clouds
when scared get crazy, u short
No I wont short ..not even for scalp...ATm..

if it starts to go down I will Stay out.. I dont see a Retrace by the way...
LONG FROM 132 anyways... so stop at .....I dont know...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #220,157
  • Apr 2, 2010 12:58pm Apr 2, 2010 12:58pm
4hr chart showing possible retracement areas.

It is usual for the breakout level to be retested at some stage before continuation of trend. The last major breakout level sits roughly between 138.5 and 139.25. (Tan box). As yet, no retest of this level has occurred. I've looked back over the charts and I haven't seen a breakout level not be retested yet.....

The numerous bearish divergences seen on the 4hr chart this past week are more complicated. As I see it, all mini-divergences before the one highlighted can be said to have played out from an official standpoint. (white lines + blue rectangles). We should only be interested in those divergences which either haven't played out, or been invalidated. (yellow lines).
Currently, this is the bearish divergence that needs attention and it's 'play-out' level sits somewhere between 139.25 and 140.25. (green rectangle).

Of course, if the bearish divergence across the whole move plays out, (red lines), the 'play-out' level will be around 137.

As I see it, we 'have' to return to at least 140.25, before we can change trend to bullish.

Chart
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Obviously, none of this is cast in stone, so any additional comments welcome.
  • #220,158
  • Apr 2, 2010 1:08pm Apr 2, 2010 1:08pm
Being long it is very appreciated getting a feel for the different retrace scenarios that might occur.

I am kind of in the heat of riding the uptrend till it stops but I do need to start doing something beyond just a 200 pip sl for my newer positions.

I am seeing a possible 130 pip retrace from 146.37 where the w1 35 sma is hanging. This move has seemed to really be playing off the ma's more than channels or candles or other normal things.

I will probably tp for newer positions at 146.37. I expect it to keep moving up in 100 ahead 25 back steps pretty orderly up tell 146 ish.
  • #220,159
  • Apr 2, 2010 2:02pm Apr 2, 2010 2:02pm
Quoting pkimnyc
q, this is what i have so far.
still looking like there is more to the upside.

i know that we have hit the 161 fib ext today.

3 things to look at:

1. if the up move is indeed c wave then the real target should be somewhere ar'd 146.50.

2. if the up move is wave 3 then i would expect geppy will most likely travel much further.

3. as you have stated, in case the price does pull back to 137-136 area, shoot up to 151, then the initial wave is not completed yet.

let's see how this plays out.
PK,

Thank you for the great analysis as always. . .

I see your 146.41 target using FE expansion which is a great tool. You are looking at FE 1.618 for the 3rd wave to complete which is a good target. . .

However, also, keep in mind that there is another cluster of resistance up there before u get to 146.41 @ 144.60 - 145.25 area. . . Above that and I actually see a pathway to at least 147.20 area which we are all too familar with. . .

I will be watching my analysis as well as your to see how it plays. . .
  • #220,160
  • Apr 2, 2010 5:43pm Apr 2, 2010 5:43pm
Quoting quecee5
Juts one last thing. . .

. . . This will be the buying zone (137-135.70) it is here you can pretty much buy, cut off the computer and set an alert or sell order for 150/151

Going to hold on to this post to see how it all plays. . .

Agree Bro......my count show buyer at 137.20 .......
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