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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,041
  • Mar 31, 2010 2:16pm Mar 31, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting shahab8b
NFP will tell us, you know U/J is most sensitive pair to NFP report, it will shoot up 200 pips or came down 200 pips in couple of minutes
Well NFP is going to be better because they probably created thousands of Government jobs. ADP report is private sector. Interesting that Obama has given "go ahead" for drilling in Atlantic although it will take years to carry out.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,042
  • Mar 31, 2010 2:18pm Mar 31, 2010 2:18pm
I took Short G/U for a short term trade at 1.5185
SL= 1.5225 TP= 1.5135 1st ,2nd TBD , let's see if we get some R here, but the trend is up
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  • #1,043
  • Mar 31, 2010 2:22pm Mar 31, 2010 2:22pm
Quoting Patience
Well NFP is going to be better because they probably created thousands of Government jobs. ADP report is private sector. Interesting that Obama has given "go ahead" for drilling in Atlantic although it will take years to carry out.
I hope so because I'm going to NFP with my long U/J from 92.94
  • #1,044
  • Mar 31, 2010 2:25pm Mar 31, 2010 2:25pm
Quoting shahab8b
on a separate note, I would like to know if I can discuss developing a hedging EA with you. can I shot an email?
hey shahab..... sure.... piptrap posted my email address in my user profile..... most everybody uses it......

//-----

dang, that chfjpy is swimin upstream like there's no tommorrow.....h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,045
  • Mar 31, 2010 2:31pm Mar 31, 2010 2:31pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
I hope so because I'm going to NFP with my long U/J from 92.94
Hey there Shahab..
I got in on the exact same level on the drop today.
But I cashed in for 60 pips when it met resistance up there. wanted to look for another entry if it retraced a bit more...

But still stuck in my Long U/CHF (-32 at the moment) after not hitting my SL.
pretty unsure now as mentioned earlier.

I sure would prefer to see some upside now
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,046
  • Mar 31, 2010 2:39pm Mar 31, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab..
I got in on the exact same level on the drop today.
But I cashed in for 60 pips when it met resistance up there. wanted to look for another entry if it retraced a bit more...

But still stuck in my Long U/CHF (-32 at the moment) after not hitting my SL.
pretty unsure now as mentioned earlier.

I sure would prefer to see some upside now

Hi Tuner,
I'm waiting for day to close to post an a entree level for U/J long, I'm glad you went long on that drop, I expected that drop to be bought.
  • #1,047
  • Mar 31, 2010 2:43pm Mar 31, 2010 2:43pm
Well I'm going to go for the gap close on A/U. Just entered at 0.9174 with T/P at 0.9199 (just to be safe). Is that random enough for you Shahab?
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,048
  • Mar 31, 2010 2:48pm Mar 31, 2010 2:48pm
U/J buy limit at daily pivot 93.27 SL= 92.70
  • #1,049
  • Mar 31, 2010 2:52pm Mar 31, 2010 2:52pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Tuner,
I'm waiting for day to close to post an a entree level for U/J long, I'm glad you went long on that drop, I expected that drop to be bought.
so I think it was my huge position that brought it up again

was looking for 93.28 to 93.23 area (around daily pivot and 50fibo of the recent rally) maybe.
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,050
  • Mar 31, 2010 2:54pm Mar 31, 2010 2:54pm
Quoting Patience
Well I'm going to go for the gap close on A/U. Just entered at 0.9174 with T/P at 0.9199 (just to be safe). Is that random enough for you Shahab?
are you kidding? this daily candle seems bullish to me, A/U drop was bought at 38% fib level of this week impulsive move, I hate to say that but I'm not sure if this monster has topped yet.
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  • #1,051
  • Mar 31, 2010 2:55pm Mar 31, 2010 2:55pm
Quoting Tuner
so I think it was my huge position that brought it up again

was looking for 93.28 to 93.23 area (around daily pivot and 50fibo of the recent rally) maybe.

good,the same here, I'll load up long again on U/J in any drop.
  • #1,052
  • Mar 31, 2010 3:02pm Mar 31, 2010 3:02pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
good,the same here, I'll load up long again on U/J in any drop.
I was too slow with my post but that should be a good level yes.
will go for that... Hope we can crack that 93.60 / 70 that time.. (even without NFP shooting it up )

Any thoughts on the CHF.... or are you done with that one?
still -30....
wondering if this is just a retrace now.. or if that was the bottom...
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,053
  • Mar 31, 2010 3:51pm Mar 31, 2010 3:51pm
Hi mate,

Hope you changed your S/L for AU to .9185.

I am still short and its bloody costing me some serious $$$.

but given its an extra long weekend and NFP, I am sensing risk aversion and profit taking move.

TP of my shorts have now moved to .9110-15 as there are loads of trailing stops below .9130
  • #1,054
  • Mar 31, 2010 3:56pm Mar 31, 2010 3:56pm
Quoting shahab8b
are you kidding? this daily candle seems bullish to me, A/U drop was bought at 38% fib level of this week impulsive move, I hate to say that but I'm not sure if this monster has topped yet.
ROLF - well that was a great start. I don't know about CHF. My Jurik daily and weekly charts don't look very bullish for USD. Anyway I really dislike this pair because I've been treated the same way as you with it in the past. I see daily 200 MA saved it today.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,055
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:04pm Mar 31, 2010 4:04pm
alan is strirring the pot..... it's a slow cookin fire so might take 90 days for the commodities to come to a boil......

and the nzdusd is within a couple hundred pips and thirty days of the upper down trend channel...... a steep channel at that......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,056
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:46pm Mar 31, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting shahab8b
I took Short G/U for a short term trade at 1.5185
SL= 1.5225 TP= 1.5135 1st ,2nd TBD , let's see if we get some R here, but the trend is up

I exit this G/U short trade, stand aside for now,

open position:

long U/J 92.94
short Gold 1116
  • #1,057
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:00pm Mar 31, 2010 5:00pm
Hi Shahab8b,

When I saw the subject of the COT on FF I thought it may be of some interest to learn about the COT. I read through the thread hoping to find how to use COT to gain an edge in my Forex trading. After 70 pages of reading I find the the whole concept of the COT for use in trading to be a bit disappointing. What I did learn, in my opinion, is that understanding COT had little to do with your successful trades as listed on page 1. It appears to me that your knowledge of technical analysis and your understanding of the market is what gives you an edge. I enjoyed the thread and your analysis but I'm still struggling to see the link between COT and the successful execution of your trade set ups. For example, COT is at the extreme level of say "0" for weeks on end, what does that tell us...not much. What is more interesting to know is why do you decide to enter the market and at what point is your entry given that the COT may be at an extreme for weeks at a time. For the average trader this is the difficult part to learn the "why and when" to enter. Maybe I'm missing some thing here.

Please do not take this post as being critical of what you have done here. I think the thread provides a lot of insight to your technical skills as a trader and I've enjoyed reading the thread. Just not sure I see the value of looking at COT data to improve my trading.
  • #1,058
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:33pm Mar 31, 2010 5:33pm
Quoting jackm1
Patience,

how do i get fxcm, ssi thing you post here.
do one have to be customer or just demo account would give access to this tool. Thanks for your reply.
Hi Jackm1 - sorry I missed your post the first time around. I think you have to be a customer. I'm not sure if they do the SSI on the demo platform but you could contact Jason Rogers, the FXCM rep on Forex Factory, and check with him.

Looks like everyone out there is Kung Fu fighting the US$. See you tomorrow.

Inserted Video
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,059
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:37pm Mar 31, 2010 5:37pm
are the markets going to be open for friday??? everyone has a bank holiday but the u.s., but the dow is closed on friday. anyone???
  • #1,060
  • Mar 31, 2010 6:12pm Mar 31, 2010 6:12pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Shahab8b,

When I saw the subject of the COT on FF I thought it may be of some interest to learn about the COT. I read through the thread hoping to find how to use COT to gain an edge in my Forex trading. After 70 pages of reading I find the the whole concept of the COT for use in trading to be a bit disappointing. What I did learn, in my opinion, is that understanding COT had little to do with your successful trades as listed on page 1. It appears to me that your knowledge of technical analysis and your understanding of the market is what gives...
Hi Dave,

I do understand you concern, COT is not a perfect tool but it helps. take a moment and look at these charts.to my experience if you know the flow of the market you would know where to place your orders, and COT gives you that edge.
this week has been one my worst trading weeks as the trade result can tell you but if I look back it is clear that I made a huge mistake on interpretation of G/U COT,
to answer you question, COT is extreme when you go with trend when you go counter trend ,it is important to know when you get extreme reading, for instance when the trend is changing you always have extreme reading on COT index but when you look at the net positioning you can realize the right side. (e.g extreme reading on E/U after the trend is changed in Nov/Dec) on the other hand you may have extreme reading due to overcrowding (e.g extreme on G/U) in latter you should try counter trend trade, which I pointed out we would do it but I was wrong about the timing as you can see.

to sum up, COT and SSI are helpful and lots of my successful trades were based on them , and if you read through out the thread you would see whenever I ignored SSI/COT my trades went wrong (Patience can tell you this for sure)
As I mentioned in the first page:

Set Up COT
Entree/exit technical

Regards
Shahab
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