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  • #81
  • Mar 21, 2010 9:09pm Mar 21, 2010 9:09pm
Very narrow downtrend channel and again Euro weakness and AUD resilience.

However, no trend lasts forever. Future resistance at 1.5623

For me its an intraday play for now, both ways, If I were to enter now it would be long to 1.4940 but I'm not entering.

R
  • #82
  • Mar 21, 2010 9:23pm Mar 21, 2010 9:23pm
Exactly what I'm looking for ..............4940-4950, then probably down again.
  • #83
  • Mar 23, 2010 10:17am Mar 23, 2010 10:17am
Quoting Accumulation
Exactly what I'm looking for ..............4940-4950, then probably down again.
Always nice to have consensus, although it didn't have quite the momentum to go that high, nonetheless I hop you made few pips on that trade.


I'm still waiting to unwind some old trades before I commit to anything new long term, and therefore I'm not posting as much.

The market is very undecided the last few weeks due to all the geopolitical events (Europe, China). Probably great environment for scalpers.

R
  • #84
  • Mar 24, 2010 12:42am Mar 24, 2010 12:42am
nice journal. great job on your account.

will stop by once in a while. i always enjoy reading journals that are backed up with solid methodology and verified account statements.


all the best for your trading.
  • #85
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:34am Mar 24, 2010 8:34am
Your MyFXBook profile doesn't seem to be updating.
  • #86
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:52am Mar 24, 2010 10:52am
Once I'm done with some trades the profile will be updated.


In the meantime I took a short trade on EURCAD overnight. It was just hanging off the cliff and ready to retest the recent low so the risk was small. +62 pips.

So fat things are playing out as expected, lets just keep watching.
EURCHF made it lifetime low, something worth watching as well, but I feel it still has some room to go lower


R
  • #87
  • Mar 24, 2010 12:34pm Mar 24, 2010 12:34pm
Quoting robertw
Always nice to have consensus, although it didn't have quite the momentum to go that high, nonetheless I hop you made few pips on that trade.


I'm still waiting to unwind some old trades before I commit to anything new long term, and therefore I'm not posting as much.

The market is very undecided the last few weeks due to all the geopolitical events (Europe, China). Probably great environment for scalpers.

R
Hey Rob,
Got out at 4840. Just been scalping since then. Thinking about riding the EUR/USD down until it btms. Don't see much to stop it until 1.3100.
  • #88
  • Mar 26, 2010 2:49pm Mar 26, 2010 2:49pm
Hi Folks

As I've been saying I've been stuck in a trade for almost three weeks, of course on a loosing side (my greed kept me there) and I finally got tired of looking at it and loosing sleep over it so I cut it loose along with a good chunk of the profits. Anyway all equity and some profit were preserved so I got back to working my original plan that I started with this year with a result that in a day I made over 35%. so far so good.

This experience showed me that I am not ready for such long term runs as I was trying to achieve here, don't take me wrong I still strongly believe that, that is where big money is but I'm just not ready mentally for that yet and I will take the time to adjust myself to it. Although it will probably take at least a year which will give me time to build up the account as well.

That said I'm still committed to using the tools and principles I outlined before, they work for me and I have no reasons to change them.

I'll not be chasing hundred+ pip trades for a while. I'll be concentrating my attention for now to find 20 pips trades and find at least 3 of them per day and using an aggressive position sizing to maximize the gain. I'll keep posting how it goes and any interesting set ups I find.

Weekend starts in 15 min, spring is here hope everyone enjoys their weekend.

R.
  • #89
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:28pm Mar 26, 2010 11:28pm
Quoting robertw
Hi Folks

I'll not be chasing hundred+ pip trades for a while. I'll be concentrating my attention for now to find 20 pips trades and find at least 3 of them per day and using an aggressive position sizing to maximize the gain. I'll keep posting how it goes and any interesting set ups I find.
Weekend starts in 15 min, spring is here hope everyone enjoys their weekend.

R.
R,

I appreciate your frankness. This decision is most appropriate for present times when fundamentals are hazy. How you get your 100 pips is unimportant! This quest for a perfect trade has been bugging me too but it is nothing but a ego trip. Better to take whatever market gives and run.
"Put all your efforts in becoming effortless"
  • #90
  • Mar 27, 2010 12:41am Mar 27, 2010 12:41am
Hi Robert, firstly i would like to thank you for your contribution and sharing your way of trading , it is truly inspiring, i would like to ask a few about your money management & style. you only detailed how you were managing when your trades goes accordingly, like +1 pip SL when u have +20/40 pip up, or trailing.

what about if it goes the wrong way from the start like -20/40 pip down?


1)If you put on a trade and it goes against you, how long will you let the loss run? And if you keep watching it, will you be emotional and cut it?

for example you said u will take about 50 pips loss, what if you believe that it will reverse and it will all change to profit, and then if it doesnt, now you are at -100 pip loss, what do you do? Do you use S/R lines to measure where to take Loss aswell as you use S/R lines to take profits?

What are the factors that will allow you to cut loss professionally and not emotionally? by emotion i mean panic cutting due to stress. or you no longer believe in your decision being correct? i can see that your trading style is really different that you rely more on your on knowledge, analytical result and instinct. so for me to guess i think you cut loss when you no longer believe it will come back?

2)when you say u trade multiple time frame, Im guessing you exclude M1 and m5, only M15 is your smallest time frame, like when you say you are not ready for long term, you are going back to look for 20 pips, do you trade the M15 mainly and use H4 to gauge the overall trend?

3)What market indices do you look at and why?

Keep going robert, this is great, i will subscribe to your thread !
  • #91
  • Mar 27, 2010 7:02am Mar 27, 2010 7:02am
Quoting IamTHAT
R,

I appreciate your frankness. This decision is most appropriate for present times when fundamentals are hazy. How you get your 100 pips is unimportant! This quest for a perfect trade has been bugging me too but it is nothing but a ego trip. Better to take whatever market gives and run.



And sometimes it gives a big fat juicy fastball right down the middle of the plate. But I have to see it and hit it for the grand slam homerun. Keep the faith Robert!
  • #92
  • Mar 27, 2010 8:35am Mar 27, 2010 8:35am
Quoting IamTHAT
R,

I appreciate your frankness. This decision is most appropriate for present times when fundamentals are hazy. How you get your 100 pips is unimportant! This quest for a perfect trade has been bugging me too but it is nothing but a ego trip. Better to take whatever market gives and run.
The title of the thread still applies, I'm still going for at least 100%, March will be the exception so far this year.

There is probably no perfect trade but with the right approach you can have a pretty damn sure trade most of the time.

What I noticed in many of my trades and especially the loosing ones is that many times initially I'm in the profit by average of 15-25 pips before it turns around and either goes against me for a while or completely. So this shows me that my approach is correct pretty much most of the time since it works on the profit trades and I only have very few negative trades which if I can just use a hard stop of about 20 pips and not 50-100 I can convert most of those trades to profitable one as well, which will leave really really small number of loosing ones.
Combine that with aggressive lot sizing and the result is explosive.
I may also need to put my SL at BE a bit sooner maybe as soon as 15 pips.

Its a continuous balancing act.

R
  • #93
  • Mar 27, 2010 10:07am Mar 27, 2010 10:07am
Quoting Accumulation
[/b]


And sometimes it gives a big fat juicy fastball right down the middle of the plate. But I have to see it and hit it for the grand slam homerun. Keep the faith Robert!

I hope I'm reading this correctly



Yes, The Grand Question in forex, how do you protect your profits while trying to let them run?

I don't have the right answer, my take on this is that you need to watch the price action but you also need the experience of watching it for a while (months-years) to judge how it may behave (please see link below on this) and then either take small profit or let it run. But still the question is do you set a hard TP at say 20 pips or not. If you do you get hit and it keeps going you loose a bunch of pips but you still made something. If you don't set a hard TP where do you take your profit?, at this point there is a battle going in your head. How do you balance all that. Setting your SL at BE or +1 pips is part of the solution.

Or maybe we can't have the cake and eat it too in FX. Maybe you have to pick a strategy and stick to it. I think in long term it may be much better to just rely on hard TP of say 20 pips per trade then to keep fighting yourself on when to get out of the trade should it be 80/90/100/200?. At least that's where I'm leaning towards at this moment.

On the subject of faith.
I've lost so much and so many times that I must have turned some corner in fx trading that I don't really sweat it anymore, I just pick myself and keep going. As long as you preserve your capital and some profits you're still in the 5% club. I'm addicted to trading by now and even if you try you could not discourage me from it.


Some things never change.
http://www.stock-market-seminars.com...-livermore.pdf


R
  • #94
  • Mar 27, 2010 10:53am Mar 27, 2010 10:53am
EdgarNg Welcome


1. what about if it goes the wrong way from the start like -20/40 pip down?

Again, you have to go back to the reasons you entered the trade. Are the reasons still valid and you were just too early or has something changed?
We are very rarely going to have perfect timing in our trades and this is something that has to be taken into account and you need room in your margin to allow for that, but only if the reasons for the trade are still valid.
Ideally you'd take a small position initially if you're not sure of timing and if the reasons for the trade are still valid when it goes 20/40 pips against you, you'd add another position. If you loose faith in the trade just cut it loose and start over.
The trades I had to take a loss on last week were an example of this, I believe in few days/weeks they will go where I planned but I was just much too early and with too much of a stake in it. I cut them loose and I paid the price for being wrong but I understand it and I don't sweat it.


2)If you put on a trade and it goes against you, how long will you let the loss run? And if you keep watching it, will you be emotional and cut it?

Please see #1
I always watch my trades, even if I have to loose sleep over it. (I'll make it up when I get out of the trade).
You can never eliminate all emotions from trading, but you need to learn to control them and you need to have your own MM rules.


3) for example you said u will take about 50 pips loss, what if you believe that it will reverse and it will all change to profit, and then if it doesnt, now you are at -100 pip loss, what do you do? Do you use S/R lines to measure where to take Loss aswell as you use S/R lines to take profits?


Still #1 applies
I use S/R very often and they work quite well



4)What are the factors that will allow you to cut loss professionally and not emotionally?

Reasons for entering the trade are no longer there.

5)by emotion i mean panic cutting due to stress. or you no longer believe in your decision being correct? i can see that your trading style is really different that you rely more on your on knowledge, analytical result and instinct. so for me to guess i think you cut loss when you no longer believe it will come back?

Exactly
For example, after I took my loss Thursday morning I made 15 trades: I closed 12 in profit and most of them had an open drawdown of no more then 15 pips, I closed 1 at BE because I didn't want it open for the weekend, 2 are still open, of those one had an open drawdown of 100 pips, the second was added when the drawdown on the first was about 60 pips because I still believe in the reasons for the trade. I expect this trade to give me about 100 pips combined next week because 1) that's where the closest S/R level is 2) this type of price action generally acts this way 3) my trade is in the direction of the long term trade.
Long term potential is for more pips but I'll be content with what I get and I'll go looking for other opportunity. (long AUDUSD look interesting @0.9000)

6)when you say u trade multiple time frame, Im guessing you exclude M1 and m5, only M15 is your smallest time frame, like when you say you are not ready for long term, you are going back to look for 20 pips, do you trade the M15 mainly and use H4 to gauge the overall trend?

I don't exclude any TF but I don't look at M1 too often.
I'm not ready for weeks of waiting to take profit but I want to get there one day. As you know 20 pips comes at you quite often so yes from M5 to H4 TF
However, you also need to look at daily/weekly.
You don't want to be at the extreme side of the long term trade and trade against it even for a few pips.

7)What market indices do you look at and why?

I look at Dow Jones Industrial, I notice strong correlation there with many pairs (JPY). I look at behavior of other related pairs since some lead others. For example USD getting stronger across many pairs will give me more confidence to go long USD.

I'm a strong believer that all the markets affect each other and if you have the analytical skills, time and manpower (which I don't, GS does and they make good money on it) you can make a killing by looking at the whole picture.


R
  • #95
  • Mar 28, 2010 10:46am Mar 28, 2010 10:46am
Hi robert, thank you for taking your time to reply, i really appreciate that.

I noticed that JPY is weakening since 23rd of march and EJ and UJ UP by around 180+ pips.

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0100327109819/

on the right side , you can see that top 5 pip changes. are all JPY pairs.
UJ + 198
CHFJPY + 155
NZDJPY + 100
GBPJPY + 191.

However when i view AJ, it retraces back down a little bit, does this mean a high probability that a long here would be a good trade?

is it underpriced/oversold/undervalued , making it a good long, OR issit a first sign of warning that JPY may be regaining its strenght? i know that there is no sure things here but i would like your opinion, and that AUD may be weakening aswell, but it couldnt be any weaker than JPY that it had to retrace down at least 134 pips? because the top 5 shows that JPY is the weakest of all. Or issit all just a normal retracement due to S/R lines? Like an A B C correction wave, if it is then it would be a good long as it is touching MA 200 on H1 TF as well.


i am sure you have done some analysis for JPY if you have taken any trades on JPY pairs! i would like some of your input on this . heh thx again. ( ps: no im not taking advice to create positions, i merely want to understand roberts way and am having an interest on his style as i feel that it is the approach that suits me , i lost all my live account money so now i am on demo, creating a new trading plan for myself , however i am fairly new in fundamentals and correlations of market)
Cheers.


oh sorry the chart below is on H1 TF
Attached Image
  • #96
  • Mar 28, 2010 11:48am Mar 28, 2010 11:48am
Quoting robertw
I was playing with AUDUSD on Friday by shorting it. I had 50 pips in profit but eventually closed at only 30 pips. I entered again but then the market was shutting down for the weekend so i just closed with a 2 pips loss.
To be honest I'm kind of unsure of where this pair will go. It does not have a definite trend if you look at the daily chart.
If the USD gets stronger AUD will definitely get weaker but it has been surprisingly resilient the last few days so I would probably not expect a 500 pips drop very fast except for something negative...
This pair was my bright spot last week. I got in several shorts near the top of the crest of the wave going down. From a monthly perspective it has gone too far down to try for another high and is working its way down to test the lows of the previous wave. I am leaving the trades at the top of the wave at be to let this thing run down.

AU is leaning which is a good enough indicator for me to risk the profit long term for a much larger profit. It is such a hassle to get into a long term trade I'll rely on the technical and unless some major fundi changes assume the tech will carry through.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au down wave.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #97
  • Mar 28, 2010 11:57am Mar 28, 2010 11:57am
Quote
I noticed that JPY is weakening since 23rd of march and EJ and UJ UP by around 180+ pips.

True, but its up against resistance (daily), have you seen how much time it spent around 90 seems to me there is a great interest at that level and I'm pretty confident we'll see UJ at around 90 again this week.

Quote
on the right side , you can see that top 5 pip changes. are all JPY pairs. UJ + 198 CHFJPY + 155 NZDJPY + 100 GBPJPY + 191.

GBPJPY has been driven primarily by JPY in the last two weeks but since I believe that UJ is coming down and GBPUSD is going down as well, I'm convinced that GBPJPY will complete its fifth leg in the next few days probably to at least 130 or below.

Quote
However when i view AJ, it retraces back down a little bit, does this mean a high probability that a long here would be a good trade?

AUD has been very strong lately, it even resisted all the USD strengthening.
If I were to take the trade I'd feel much better about it going long then short also the long term trade is up as well but we're in the middle of the uptrend channel so the action can be both ways. On the shorter TF I believe it will retest 84.50 in a day or two so there is probably easy 100 pips in that trade.

Quote
is it underpriced/oversold/undervalued , making it a good long, OR issit a first sign of warning that JPY may be regaining its strenght?

Good question about JPY
keep in mind JPY gets stronger when UJ goes down and if we look strictly at the charts its hard to say long term. This question can only be answered by looking at the fundamentals.
Hourly-Daily TF trading is often driven by latest news/stock/commodity movements around the world.
What time frame do you trade on currently?

Quote
i know that there is no sure things here but i would like your opinion, and that AUD may be weakening aswell, but it couldnt be any weaker than JPY that it had to retrace down at least 134 pips? because the top 5 shows that JPY is the weakest of all. Or issit all just a normal retracement due to S/R lines? Like an A B C correction wave, if it is then it would be a good long as it is touching MA 200 on H1 TF as well.

I think on the UJ we may have a failed breakout, the big boys accumulated a bunch of ccy at around 90 and then distributed it to suckers all the way to almost 93. Now that there is no more big boys interest there it will probably start going lower by them selling it back and longs will start covering.
Its just my feeling but smells like such a play.

Quote
i am sure you have done some analysis for JPY if you have taken any trades on JPY pairs! i would like some of your input on this . heh thx again.

Yes, I've just lost a bunch of $$$ on GBPJPY by being short too early
please see above for rest of answer to JPY

Quote
( ps: no im not taking advice to create positions, i merely want to understand roberts way and am having an interest on his style as i feel that it is the approach that suits me , i lost all my live account money so now i am on demo, creating a new trading plan for myself , however i am fairly new in fundamentals and correlations of market)

Not a problem glad to be of help.
In a day or two I'll post something that I think you may find very useful.
  • #98
  • Edited 2:20pm Mar 28, 2010 12:13pm | Edited 2:20pm
I just found out yesterday that my broker(IBFX) where I have the account posted at myfxbook does a balance forward on its accounts every few months.
So this basically screwed up my statistics that that I had there. Luck has it that the account was not updated for a while so I can retain that data on myfxbook but I will not update it anymore. I'm just disclosing it so everyone knows what is going on.
I'll be opening a fresh MT4 account with a broker that does not do that and just keeps your history however long it is. Right now I'm leaning toward MBT since I traded with them as well for a while, but they're new to MT4 and I have to verify that they will not do that to me in the future.
Once I get that set up I'll change my signature link to show my trading on the new account since I strongly believe that a person should back up his/her talk with real facts - therefore no demo accounts.


R
  • #99
  • Mar 28, 2010 1:58pm Mar 28, 2010 1:58pm
Recently Busted 2.8k usd account

Scrapped everything up, remade a demo, and now creating a new trading plan similar to your approach.


Giving myself a 2 month on that demo($500 capital, to 2k at least realistically) to try to atleast double up. or triple up, before putting in real money again.

I plan to trade on H1 as main TF ,but look at the market(trend) as a whole with a 360 degree as well.

i use ibfx aswell, maybe going to open one at oanda as its servers are faster to me, their country is just below my country.

aight, eagerly waiting for your next post =)
  • #100
  • Mar 28, 2010 2:18pm Mar 28, 2010 2:18pm
Quoting EdgarNg
Recently Busted 2.8k usd account

Scrapped everything up, remade a demo, and now creating a new trading plan similar to your approach.


Giving myself a 2 month on that demo($500 capital, to 2k at least realistically) to try to atleast double up. or triple up, before putting in real money again.

I plan to trade on H1 as main TF ,but look at the market(trend) as a whole with a 360 degree as well.

i use ibfx aswell, maybe going to open one at oanda as its servers are faster to me, their country is just below my country.

aight, eagerly waiting...
Have you made up your mind about being a trader yet?
Are you willing to keep going until you make it?
Are you open minded to keep learning?

The busted amount is of no consequence, once you catch the wave you'll make up all the money you lost in a trade or two. It will take time and patience to grow the account to the sufficient size but its damn worth it.
Just get up, don't even think about the loss and keep trying - Repeat (I'm sure you over analyzed the reasons for the loss before you cut it loose anyway)

You don't have to listen to me but If I can say something.
Forget the demo, you're just going to waste 2 months of time, learning very little and you already know the technical aspects of the platform.
I think IBFX will take as low as $250, put that $250 in real account and learn live and raw. If you bust $250 it will teach you much more then busting a billion in demo because it will hurt you a bit and that will make you be on alert. You can trade down to 1000 units on IBFX so you can do that and be pretty safe.

R
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