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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #218,281
  • Mar 15, 2010 11:36am Mar 15, 2010 11:36am
Quoting Scrat
brief update before the weekend.

today's rally might have already ended. intraday profile looks like typical distribution (see 15min chart); however, last support is @ 137.07 and if this is taken then we are looking @ 135.90 first.

intraweek profile (see h1 chart) shows another possible distribution; however, it is not confirmed... for a confirmation i would like to see weekly pvp @ 137 area and then price breaking below 135.90. if this happens next week, then i think we can say hello to 133.50 (another important support).

my scenarios are...
Scrat, can you explain what is the histogram use for? and how to read the chart? thx
  • #218,282
  • Mar 15, 2010 12:35pm Mar 15, 2010 12:35pm
here is a link about the indicator. i can't possibly explain it in just a few words.

Quoting special0nefx
Scrat, can you explain what is the histogram use for? and how to read the chart? thx
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #218,283
  • Mar 15, 2010 1:13pm Mar 15, 2010 1:13pm
.....why not??

Quoting Scrat
here is a link about the indicator. i can't possibly explain it in just a few words.
Annoying Precision
  • #218,284
  • Mar 15, 2010 1:18pm Mar 15, 2010 1:18pm
alright... here it is:

buy when you see accumulation and a break on the other side of vwap; sell when you see distribution and a break on the other side of vwap. also, correlate between timeframes to trade in the direction of the main trend.

that's it. very simple
in fact, let's make it even simpler: buy low when they start buying; and sell high when they start selling. you'll be a millionaire in no time

Quoting erikte279
.....why not??
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #218,285
  • Mar 15, 2010 1:22pm Mar 15, 2010 1:22pm
The man has SPOKEN..........

thanks

Quoting Scrat
alright... here it is:

buy when you see accumulation and a break on the other side of vwap; sell when you see distribution and a break on the other side of vwap. also, correlate between timeframes to trade in the direction of the main trend.

that's it. very simple
in fact, let's make it even simpler: buy low when they start buying; and sell high when they start selling. you'll be a millionaire in no time
Annoying Precision
  • #218,286
  • Mar 15, 2010 1:25pm Mar 15, 2010 1:25pm
A famous investor once said "Avoid the middle like the plague".......working on my understanding and trading ability to sit on my hands and WAIT for those golden opputunities......
Annoying Precision
  • #218,287
  • Mar 15, 2010 1:32pm Mar 15, 2010 1:32pm
Quoting KillerWhale
My reasoning is this:

139 is about 61.8 fib
141 is about 78.6 fib,

and GJ is well known historically about reaching 78.6 retracements.

This should all be completed before the year end starts.
That is also why I think that GJ will drop for a while after 141

Shamu,

and don't forget, it is just my opinion.

I'll attach the daily chart.

All indicators look upwards.
what if it does pass 78.6 to 100% and hit 143 area? We are climbing and this GJ moves like a maniac and slices through all pivot points to create a new high... opinion anyone?
  • #218,288
  • Mar 15, 2010 1:36pm Mar 15, 2010 1:36pm
Quoting Scrat
alright... here it is:

buy when you see accumulation and a break on the other side of vwap; sell when you see distribution and a break on the other side of vwap. also, correlate between timeframes to trade in the direction of the main trend.

that's it. very simple
in fact, let's make it even simpler: buy low when they start buying; and sell high when they start selling. you'll be a millionaire in no time

Hmm gotta be honest, after reading some of that I was more confused than I thought I was before. Leaving the fact that I dont have lines or different colours in mine hah.
  • #218,289
  • Mar 15, 2010 1:38pm Mar 15, 2010 1:38pm
1H GJ:

BB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ1h_Mar15.png Size: 381 KB
  • #218,290
  • Edited 1:58pm Mar 15, 2010 1:46pm | Edited 1:58pm
Quoting feardox
what if it does pass 78.6 to 100% and hit 143 area? We are climbing and this GJ moves like a maniac and slices through all pivot points to create a new high... opinion anyone?

feardox,

I see a very clear senario based on the daily, weekly and monthly chart;

1) The daily is pointing right toward 139.25/50 area which should be a huge cluster resistance. Failure there and we see monthly support at 128.50 area. . . initially! with some pitstops inbetween of course. . .

2) If 139.25/50 is taken then we are pointing right at the weekly resistance at 142.50/143 as you have so eloquently stated. . .

3) If 143 is taken then we go back to 153. . .

Therefore: the gatkepper will be the 139.25/50 area. . .

Right now what I see was a pullback to check daily support (daily 5sma) a close above it and we are on our way to 139.25/50 in the next couple of days, Xmas may come early.

There is no economic data out tonight so I see us creeping back up slow but surely esp if we get a solid close above daily 5 sma (136) which we are still trading above daily gann. . .

2morrow is the big day as we have FOMC rate announcement for US so we could see a run on this in the overnight market up to our 139.25 price range. . . should be interesting in 2nites session. . .
  • #218,291
  • Mar 15, 2010 1:47pm Mar 15, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting feardox
what if it does pass 78.6 to 100% and hit 143 area? We are climbing and this GJ moves like a maniac and slices through all pivot points to create a new high... opinion anyone?
If this were to happen it would be a strong case for a trend reversal. I've been watching the monthly chart and feel like it has some major bullish potential. What we need before it could actually explode is for the weekly and daily to align with the monthly for a huge bull run.

Right now (and as Q pointed out) the daily has a lot of bullish potential while the weekly is PERHAPS about to have bullish tendencies. If we were to have a trend reversal I'd think it would happen by cracking up to the 141.00 area, retracing back down somewhere and then blasting back up. This kind of PA would undoubtedly break the daily downtrend line and we would have to consider a trend reversal.

All of this is of course opinion and speculation. Another scenario is that we get rejected in the 139-141 zone and head back down to either base and take another stab at a potential trend reversal or make a new low altogether. We'll have to wait, watch and assess as we go.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #218,292
  • Mar 15, 2010 1:48pm Mar 15, 2010 1:48pm
Quoting quecee5
feardox,

I see a very clear senario based on the daily, weekly and monthly chart;
Beat me to it!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #218,293
  • Mar 15, 2010 2:04pm Mar 15, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting quecee5
feardox,

I see a very clear senario based on the daily, weekly and monthly chart;

1) The daily is pointing right toward 139.25/50 area which should be a huge cluster resistance. Failure there and we see monthly support at 128.50 area. . . initially! with some pitstops inbetween of course. . .

2) If 139.25/50 is taken then we are pointing right at the weekly resistance at 142.50/143 as you have so eloquently stated. . .

3) If 143 is taken then we go back to 153. . .

Therefore: the gatkepper will be the 139.25/50 area. . .

Right...
Great point thanks. Another reject from here though we must see another low before any correction/reversal to bullish. Its still monday and we have 4 more days of trading.. so another drop then a nice spike up.. 135 area..
  • #218,294
  • Mar 15, 2010 2:05pm Mar 15, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting Geppy
If this were to happen it would be a strong case for a trend reversal. I've been watching the monthly chart and feel like it has some major bullish potential. What we need before it could actually explode is for the weekly and daily to align with the monthly for a huge bull run.

Right now (and as Q pointed out) the daily has a lot of bullish potential while the weekly is PERHAPS about to have bullish tendencies. If we were to have a trend reversal I'd think it would happen by cracking up to the 141.00 area, retracing back down somewhere and then...
Bro to be quite honest with you. . . I agree with your point regarding bullish tendencies on both weekly and monthly. . . In fact I think we have already seen the low for the year and will be heading back up by Q3 of this year. Just in time for the FEDS to raise rates. . .

Other than that I think we will range in the 135-139/141 range until we have a breakout. . .
  • #218,295
  • Mar 15, 2010 2:09pm Mar 15, 2010 2:09pm
Quoting feardox
Great point thanks. Another reject from here though we must see another low before any correction/reversal to bullish. Its still monday and we have 4 more days of trading.. so another drop then a nice spike up.. 135 area..
Price went dwon to 135.80 why another drop? and we should close above daily support @ 136 (daily 5 sma) so I'm seeing a move up 136.50 1st res and then 137 area. . .

Waiting on my daily candle to close in an hour to confirm direction 2nite. . .
  • #218,296
  • Mar 15, 2010 2:40pm Mar 15, 2010 2:40pm
Quoting quecee5
Price went dwon to 135.80 why another drop? and we should close above daily support @ 136 (daily 5 sma) so I'm seeing a move up 136.50 1st res and then 137 area. . .

Waiting on my daily candle to close in an hour to confirm direction 2nite. . .
I don't know Q!, but my charts are telling me another history, the down move is not finished yet, I see a Bearish Engulfing on daily candle, maybe we could see a spike down until 135 area before resume the up move. IMHO

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: geppy.gif Size: 21 KB


P.S: 20 mins to daily candle close.
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #218,297
  • Mar 15, 2010 2:48pm Mar 15, 2010 2:48pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bullish.png Size: 18 KB


How about this? Seems like we are in the middle of the fight
  • #218,298
  • Mar 15, 2010 3:32pm Mar 15, 2010 3:32pm
Quoting JhonMonsalve
I don't know Q!, but my charts are telling me another history, the down move is not finished yet, I see a Bearish Engulfing on daily candle, maybe we could see a spike down until 135 area before resume the up move. IMHO

Attachment

P.S: 20 mins to daily candle close.
Hi, there. The bearish engulfing in bear trend is not the best set up to judge from the candle stick perspective( has to be bearish engulfing in bull trend for more precise signal). However, I do agree that bears are still here as long as it is below 4hr Gann.
P.s. I go short here 136.15 - sl - 136.6 - tp - 135
Good luck
  • #218,299
  • Mar 15, 2010 3:55pm Mar 15, 2010 3:55pm
Quoting pipsbull
Hi, there. The bearish engulfing in bear trend is not the best set up to judge from the candle stick perspective( has to be bearish engulfing in bull trend for more precise signal). However, I do agree that bears are still here as long as it is below 4hr Gann.
P.s. I go short here 136.15 - sl - 136.6 - tp - 135
Good luck
Hi PB! I'm agree, after tree bullish candles the engulfing appears, I think we're going to test the daily Gann or close to it.
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #218,300
  • Mar 15, 2010 3:57pm Mar 15, 2010 3:57pm
Quoting JhonMonsalve
Hi PB! I'm agree, after tree bullish candles the engulfing appears, I think we're going to test the daily Gann or close to it.
Btw, My RSX on 4h TF is supporting that too [Has more room to go down].

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: geppy4h.gif Size: 17 KB
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
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